In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 8-4

Spread Predictions: 5-6-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0-1

Run Line Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that matchup being a battle between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders.

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Model Predicts- Packers ML, UNDER 45.5, Packers +2

The Green Bay Packers will make a trip out West to take on the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football.

Green Bay began the season 2-1, but suffered a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions last week. Meanwhile, Las Vegas began the season 1-0, but now sits at 1-3 after a three-game losing streak.

This matchup certainly isn’t the prettiest on paper, but our model expects the Packers to win in a low scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Green Bay Packers

• Offense has provided mixed results

  • Rank 11th in EPA/play, but just 22nd in yards per play

  • Rank in bottom half of NFL in dropback and rush success rate

  • Offensive line- 5th in pass block win rate, 24th in run block win rate

• Jordan Love has been all over the place

  • Ranks 32nd in CPOE and owns abysmal 56.1% completion percentage

  • Passer rating of at least 113.0 in Weeks 1 and 2, but has not been higher than 67 in last two weeks

  • Willing to throw ball down field- Ranks 1st in air yards (10.4)

• Mediocre defense

  • 15th in pass rush win rate, 24th in run stop win rate

  • Rank in bottom half of NFL in dropback and rush success rate

• Have had lots of rest- Have not played since September 28th

Las Vegas Raiders

• Defense is one of worst units this season

  • 30th in EPA/play, surrender 5.3 yards per play

  • 24th in pass rush win rate, 17th in run stop win rate

• Running the ball has been a tall task

  • Average 3.0 yards per carry- 31st in NFL

  • 26th in rush success rate and 31st in EPA/rush

• Jimmy Garoppolo back in lineup

  • Missed Week 3 with concussion

  • 15th in adjusted EPA/play

  • 5 touchdowns, 6 interceptions this season

• Scoring is a rarity

  • Have not scored more than 18 points in a game this season

What’s the Play?

Each of tonight’s starting quarterbacks comes with his own set of issues, with Jordan Love struggling with his efficiency and Jimmy Garoppolo struggling with turnovers.

Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander are both questionable for this matchup, but Vegas’ struggles on defense may negate those absences. The lack of a pass rush against a Packer’s offensive line that is great at protecting the pass is going to give Jordan Love plenty of time to throw the ball, and Love’s willingness to throw the ball down the field makes this a great matchup.

Matt LaFleur is also excellent is these spots, posting a 14-4 against the spread record following a loss. We’ll take the better and more rested team and coach as a road underdog.

The Play: Packers +2 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Green Bay Packers- 2-2 overall this season, 1-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Las Vegas Raiders- Under is 3-1 overall this season with average point total of 40.75 points

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Green Bay Packers- Matt LaFleur is 14-4 against the spread (ATS) when coming off a loss

• Las Vegas Raiders- 1-3 ATS this season, 0-1 ATS as the home team

Below is a statistical comparison between the Packers and Raiders on offense and defense

What’s included?

• Money Line, Spread, and Over/Under records

• Quarterback Stats

• Leading Rushers and Receivers

• Defense Stats

😬 Mac Jones benched in historic loss. The New England Patriots suffered their worst home loss during Bill Belichick's era as they were defeated 34-0 by the Saints. Quarterback Mac Jones, who had been benched the previous week, continued to struggle with zero touchdown passes and four interceptions in the last two games, leading to the team's 1-4 record, the worst since 2000. Despite Jones' struggles, Belichick acknowledged that there were multiple issues contributing to the team's poor performance, and the Patriots have not scored a touchdown since their Week 3 win over the Jets.

🤕 Anthony Richardson injured again in win. Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson had to exit the game against the Titans due to a shoulder injury. It was his third sidelining in just five weeks since being drafted in the first round, with initial reports suggesting that Richardson likely has an AC joint sprain. Backup quarterback Gardner Minshew stepped in as Richardson was escorted to the locker room for evaluation, leading the Colts to a 23-16 win over Tennessee.

📚C.J. Stroud puts his name in the record books. Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud achieved another milestone in his team's 21-19 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Stroud, who completed 20 of 35 passes for 249 yards and a touchdown, established a new record for the most pass attempts without an interception to start a career. The No.2 overall pick in last year’s draft surpassed Dak Prescott's previous mark of 176, which was set in 2016.

There are two MLB games scheduled to take place today, with the first matchup being a battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, followed up by a matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Braves ML, UNDER 8, Phillies +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves with take the field for Game 2 of the NLDS on Monday evening.

Philly stole Game 1 on the road with a 3-0 victory, spoiling the Braves’ home field advantage in the series. One more win tonight would put the Phillies up 2-0 in the series before heading back to Citizens Bank Park for a potential close-out game in Game 3.

Our model believes that Atlanta will get back on track with a win here, but it is also showing more value on the total than the Braves money line Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Shutout Braves in Game 1 due to stellar performances on the mound

  • Ranger Suárez- 3.2 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts

  • Bullpen- 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts

• Offense provided just enough to get by

  • 6 hits, 4 walks, 3 runs

  • 35.5% strikeout rate in game is a concern. Sits at 26.1% since October 1st

• Elite offense has carried into postseason

  • 154 wRC+, .345 BABIP, and .949 OPS since October 1st

  • +12 run differential in three postseason games

  • 9.5% walk rate, 16.1% strikeout rate since October 1st

• Zack Wheeler (13-6 record, 3.61 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Allowed 5 hits and 1 run in 6.2 innings in Wild Card round

  • 3.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP against Braves in regular season

Atlanta Braves

• Gave now lost 3 of last 4 games

  • -6 run differential in that span. Surrendering 6.5 runs per game

• Luckily have the top offense in the MLB to make up for pitching struggles

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (124), 12th in BABIP (.303), and 1st in OPS (.843) since September 1st

  • 54 home runs since that date- most in MLB by 5

• Max Fried (8-1 record, 2.55 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Has not pitched since September 21st

  • Allowed 4 hits and 1 run in only start against Philadelphia this season

  • Tremendous control on mound (5.8%) walk rate

  • Ranks in top 5% of MLB in Barrel rate (3.8%) and ground ball rate (59.2%)

What’s the Play?

Today’s battle on the mound is as good as it gets, and as a result we agree with our model on backing the under here at 8 runs.

Fried has been an elite arm on the mound since returning from the injured list in August. Opposing hitters can’t size him up, which has led to just 08.2 home runs per nine innings while he is on the mound. Wheeler has also already shown how elite he is in the postseason, and his near sub-three ERA against Atlanta this season shows he can handle the best offense in baseball.

If the total dips to 7.5 we would stay away, but we like the under at 8.

The Play: Under 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 104-58 in regular season, 52-29 as the home team

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 100-62 in regular season, 34-18 against division opponents (Play NL west rival Arizona today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under was 77-74-13 in regular season

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line was 88-76 in regular season, 29-20 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Orioles on brink of elimination after Game 2 loss. The Baltimore Orioles are now at risk of being swept in the postseason after losing Game 2 of the American League Division Series to the Texas Rangers. Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez had a challenging postseason debut, while the Rangers' Jordan Montgomery secured the win in a game that featured multiple pitching changes and impressive offensive performances from both teams. Despite a late comeback attempt in the ninth inning, the Orioles fell 11-8, marking the most runs allowed in their postseason history since 1954.

💪 Twins dominate on mound and at plate in Game 2. Minnesota Twins star Pablo López outperformed Houston's Framber Valdez in a battle of regular-season aces in Game 2 on SUnday. López threw seven scoreless innings, striking out seven and limiting the Astros to six hits, while Valdez struggled, lasting only 4⅓ innings and giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks. The Twins secured a 6-0 lead, largely thanks to Carlos Correa's contributions, setting the stage for Game 3 with Cristian Javier pitching for the Astros and Sonny Gray for the Twins in Minneapolis.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Stanford University is widely known for its academics, but it has also produced 24 NFL QBs. Who was the most recent Stanford quarterback to be selected in the NFL Draft?

Question #2- What NBA team has won the most NBA titles since the 1999-2000 season, winning six in that time?

Question #3- Which MLB team has the most wins in league history?

Anyone know what has happened on October 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 9th…

1974- The Washington Capitals play their first NHL game. Washington came up short in its debut, falling to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden by a score of 6-3. To make matters worse, the loss marked the start of a 37-game road losing streak for the Capitals, two loses short of the NHL record.

1989- Los Angeles Raiders coach Art Shell becomes the first African American to coach an NFL game. Shell would lead the Raiders to a 14-7 victory over the New York Jets, a game highlighted by Eddie Anderson’s 87-yard Pick-6 to give L.A. the lead in the 4th quarter. He recorded a 54-38 record with the Raiders, but was fired after a 9-7 season in 1994.

1997- Legendary North Carolina basketball head coach Dean Smith retires from coaching. Smith began his coaching career in 1953 at Kansas, eventually making his way to Chapel Hill in 1958 and becoming the head coach of the Tar Heels in 1961. He would lead UNC for 36 seasons, winning two National titles and posting an 879-254 record.

1. Tanner McKee

2. Los Angeles Lakers

3. San Francisco Giants