In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, Friday, August 11, 2023.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

✍️ Jaylon Smith is heading to New Orleans. Linebacker Jaylon Smith has signed with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, as confirmed by head coach Dennis Allen. The Saints' lack of depth at the linebacker position prompted the signing, particularly with Demario Davis dealing with an injury. The veteran linebacker's career endured challenges after a significant knee injury in college, but he was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys in 2015 and later signed an extension before his release in 2021. He also started 11 games for the Giants last season, recording 88 tackles and one sack.

💪 Damar Hamlin set to take the field on Saturday. Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin is set to make his return to the field this Saturday after suffering a cardiac arrest on January 2nd. Head coach Sean McDermott initially took the decision day by day, but later confirmed that Hamlin is scheduled to play against the Colts. Hamlin's recovery journey from the cardiac arrest, caused by a collision with a Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, has been closely followed since January, and it appears Hamlin is now ready to face the mental and physical challenges of returning to NFL game action.

👀 Baker Mayfield takes Round 1 in Tampa Bay’s QB competition. The first round of the quarterback competition for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers concluded with Baker Mayfield in the lead over Kyle Trask, mirroring the start of training camp. Mayfield, the more experienced quarterback, displayed a strong performance, completing 8 of 9 passes for 63 yards, a touchdown, and a 132.9 passer rating in four drives. Trask, on the other hand, faced more pressure and struggled, going 6-of-10 for 99 yards, one interception, and a 53.8 passer rating, taking three sacks. Coach Todd Bowles provided positive feedback for both quarterbacks, but the edge seems to lean toward Mayfield.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place today. However, due to gaps in the season data and one doubleheader, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Chicago Cubs @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, Under 8.5, Cubs +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays will continue their three-game series on Saturday afternoon in Toronto.

Chicago got the best of Toronto in Game 1, snatching a 6-2 victory after scoring all six runs in the first four innings. That win was the seventh in the last ten games for the Cubs, and it marked the second straight loss for Toronto.

The Cubs have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break, and our model likes the hot streak to continue this afternoon. Let’s dive into this matchup and see why our model likes the Cubs to win in a low scoring game.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have been one of the great stories in the second half of the MLB season. The Cubs entered the All-Star break well below the .500 mark and were considered to be sellers at the trade deadline, but Chicago decided to keep the band together and is now 60-56 on the season and tied with Cincinnati for the final NL Wild Card spot.

The offense can be thanked for the sudden surge in the standings, posting an 133 wRC+ since the All-Star break. That ranks Chicago first in the MLB, and the Cubs’ .863 OPS, .336 BABIP, and 45 home runs also rank within the top-two of the majors in that time.

Most of the damage that the Cubs have done at the plate since the All-Star break has been against right-handed pitching, which it has the fortune of facing this afternoon with Chris Bassitt taking the mound for Toronto. According to FanGraphs, we have seen Chicago’s wRC+ rise to 151 and BABIP rise to .358 in those situations, further signaling that the Cubs have an edge at the plate this afternoon.

Chicago may also have the advantage on the mound with Justin Steele (13-3 record, 2.68 ERA) listed as today’s starter.

The month of August hasn’t been too kind to Steele, with the southpaw surrendering 17 hits and seven earned runs across 11.1 innings. His vulnerability to contact is partially to blame, but he still ranks in the top 25% of the majors in Hard Hit rate and Barrel rate this season despite recent struggles.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have been able to make contact with the baseball all season long, ranking within the top-10 in both batting average and OPS.

However, Toronto’s bats have gone quite cold over the last week, bringing into question what this offense is capable of achieving moving forward.

The Blue Jays have scored just nine runs over their last five games, leading to a bottom five wRC+ (63) this week. The biggest reason for the slump has been Toronto’s high strikeout rate (25.1%) and low walk rate (5.0%), showing that everyone in the lineup is having trouble seeing the baseball.

However, Toronto’s run differential in that time is just -3, which can be attributed to the pitching staff’s 2.09 ERA and 3.06 FIP. Chris Bassitt (11-6 record, 3.87 ERA) will be in charge of keeping those the numbers in the spots they are this afternoon.

Bassitt is coming off a start against Boston in which he pitched seven innings and surrendered just one run. Starts like that have come in bunches over the last three weeks, with Bassitt posting a 2.63 ERA in his last four starts.

What’s the Play?

Chris Bassitt has pitched better than Justin Steele in recent weeks, a big factor in why Toronto is a short favorite at home. However, despite our model seeing a big edge on the Cubs this afternoon, we think that the under is the better prediction to back.

Similar to Steele, Bassitt is often pitching to contact and isn’t known for making guys swing and miss or go down on strikes. Oftentimes though that contact isn’t hard, as evidenced by Bassitt’s 37.1% Hard Hit rate and 88.0 mph average exit velocity allowed. He ranks in the top 35% of the majors in both categories.

Toronto’s cold offense poses a problem for their chances of winning this afternoon, but Bassitt and the bullpen have shown they are capable of shutting opposing offenses down. We think that will lead to a low scoring game, so we’ll back the under at 8.5 runs.

The Play: Under 8.5 runs (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 60-56 overall this season, 18-9 since the All-Star break

• Philadelphia Phillies- 65-52 overall this season, 34-22 as the home team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Texas Rangers- 69-47 overall this season, 9-1 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 66-46-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 66-43-6 this season, 29-24-3 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 58-49-9 this season, 30-22-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 71-45 overall this season, 30-11 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Blue Jays send Alek Manoah back to the minor leagues. The Toronto Blue Jays are reverting to a five-man starting rotation and have sent Alek Manoah to Triple-A, signaling a setback for the once-promising young pitcher who had an impressive season last year. Reliever Hagen Danner has been called up to replace Manoah and make his MLB debut. The decision was prompted by the return of Hyun Jin Ryu and the team's schedule with upcoming off-days, making a six-man rotation unnecessary. Manoah's struggles with command have contributed to his demotion, while Danner's promotion reflects the organization's focus on developing new pitching talent.

💪 Jon Singleton posts strong performance in return to MLB. After an arduous journey, Jon Singleton celebrated his triumphant return to the Astros by hitting a colossal three-run home run in the second inning against the Angels' Reid Detmers on Friday, marking his first major league home run since 2015. Just 26 minutes later, Singleton surprised again with a two-run homer, achieving his first multi-homer game and a career-best five RBIs. This eight-year, 13-day interval between homers stands as the longest for any player since pitcher Jake Peavy's nine-year gap, making the former top prospect one of this season’s bright spots.

✅ Chris Sale nearly perfect in return to mound. Chris Sale made an impressive return to the mound for the Red Sox in their 5-2 victory over the Tigers, his first appearance since going on the IL with a left shoulder stress reaction. Sale, Boston's ace, showed his dominance by retiring the first 14 batters he faced, and his performance was marred only by a solo homer from Kerry Carpenter and hitting Javier Baéz with a pitch. Manager Alex Cora pulled Sale after 4 2/3 innings with a 4-1 lead, showing Sale hasn’t lost any gas after posting a 4-0 record and 2.25 ERA in six starts before the injury.

🌎 Giannis Antetokounmpo set to miss FIBA World Cup. Giannis Antetokounmpo has announced on Twitter that he will not be participating for Greece in the 2023 FIBA World Cup due to his recovery from left knee surgery. Despite pushing himself to regain top form after the NBA season, consultations with medical professionals have shown he isn't at the necessary level to compete in the World Cup. Antetokounmpo expressed his disappointment, but the multi-time NBA MVP emphasized his focus on qualifying for the 2024 Olympics with the ultimate goal of representing his national team and getting ready for another NBA Finals run with the Milwaukee Bucks.

🏀 Cooper Flagg reclassifies to 2024 class. Cooper Flagg, a standout high school basketball prospect, revealed on Instagram his decision to move up a year and join the 2024 class instead of 2025. Flagg, a 6-foot-8 forward from Maine, initially ranked second in the ESPN 60 for 2025, but his exceptional performances in June and July have propelled him to be widely regarded as the leading prospect across all classes. Although Duke had been a prominent contender for Flagg's recruitment, other schools like UConn, Kansas, and Kentucky are also vying for his talents. Flagg's reclassification sets the stage for him to potentially become the top selection in the 2025 NBA draft, given that he will be eligible due to his age.

🗳 Two Pac-12 schools fall short of ACC bid. Cal and Stanford fell just one vote short of securing membership in the ACC, as reported on Friday. According to ACC regulations, approval from 12 out of 15 schools is necessary for a new school's entry. However, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, and NC State opposed the inclusion of Cal and Stanford, preventing a formal vote from taking place. Notre Dame, part of the ACC governance despite being an independent football team, led an effort advocating for the two universities' admission.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the record for the most goals scored in a single NHL (National Hockey League) season, and how many goals did they score?

Question #2- In the 1998 FIFA World Cup, which team's surprise victory over a heavily favored opponent in the quarterfinals is known as the "Miracle of Lyon"?

Question #3- In the 2020 Summer Olympics held in Tokyo, which were actually held in 2021, which sport was added to the Olympic program for the first time, allowing athletes to compete in a mixed-gender team event?

Anyone know what has happened on August 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 12th…

1974- California Angels pitcher Nolan Ryan strikes out 19 batters in a 4-2 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Ryan picked up his 15th win of the season that day, surrendering just two earned runs and seven hits across nine innings. Ryan’s 19 punch outs set a new single-game strikeout record in Major League Baseball as well, surpassing the previous record of 18 strikeouts held by several pitchers.

2007- American golfer Tiger Woods wins the 89th PGA Championship, an event held at Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Woods came out of the gates slow, shooing 1-over par on the first 18-holes, but catapulted to the top of the leaderboard following a tremendous 7-under par round on day two. Woods would go on to shoot 8-under par for the tournament to secure his fourth PGA Championship title and 13th major victory, defeating fellow American Woody Austin by two strokes.

2017- Usain Bolt comes up short in the final individual race of his career, the 100 meter dash at the World Championships in London, England. Bolt, despite being the favorite, finished in third place behind American sprinters Justin Gatlin and Christian Coleman. It marked the end of Bolt's illustrious sprinting career, where he had previously dominated the sport, setting numerous world records and winning multiple Olympic gold medals.

1. Wayne Gretzky, 92

2. Croatia

3. Skateboarding