In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-9

Run Line Predictions: 7-7

3-star Predictions: 1-0

🐅 Joe Burrow returns to practice field. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has rejoined practice as the team prepares for their September 10 season opener against the Cleveland Browns. Burrow, recovering from a calf injury sustained on July 27, participated in a limited capacity as the Bengals gradually reintegrate him into training. While the specifics of Burrow's rehabilitation remain undisclosed, wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase mentioned that Wednesday marked the first time he caught passes from Burrow in over a month, emphasizing the priority of Burrow's health in his return.

👋 Panthers waive Matt Corral after one season. After initially including three quarterbacks on their 53-man roster on Tuesday, the Panthers' quarterback lineup has swiftly changed. Matt Corral has been waived by Carolina, following the team's acquisition of three players through waivers. This adjustment leaves only Bryce Young and Andy Dalton as the remaining quarterbacks on the Panthers' roster, while there's a possibility that Corral could return to the team's practice squad if he clears waivers.

🧀 Packers allegedly discussed trade for Jonathan Taylor. The Miami Dolphins weren’t the only team to show interest in Jonathan Taylor, as it is being reported the Green bay Packers also discussed a trade for the star running back. The Packers engaged in discussions with the Colts about trading for the star running back, but Indianapolis moved on after their deadline passed without an acceptable offer. Taylor, who requested a trade and was allowed to seek a trade partner by the Colts, remains a trade possibility despite being on the reserve/physically unable to perform list, which requires him to miss at least the first four regular-season games.

Sadly, there are only four MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with our model producing predictions for three of today’s matchups due to lines for the Padres/Giants game being unavailable at the time the model was run.

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals

Model Predicts- Marlins ML, OVER 8.5, Nationals +1.5

The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals will square off in what will be the final series between the two teams for the 2023 season.

Miami enters this evening’s matchup at 66-67 and having lost two straight games. The fish are also just 2-8 in the last ten games, further exemplifying the struggles of a team that held a playoff position not too long ago.

Washington has dropped two straight games as well, but the Nationals are 6-4 in their last ten contests.

Washington is just 2-7 in the season series with Miami, and our model believes the Marlins are in a position to win again today. Let’s dive into why that is and where our model sees value in tonight’s matchup.

Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins returned from the All-Star break with a stellar 53-41 record, good enough to put the fish in second place in the NL East. However, Miami has gone just 13-26 since in what has been a brutal stretch of baseball.

According to FanGraphs, the Marlins own the fourth-lowest wRC+ in baseball over the last 39 games, one that comes in at 83. To further put into perspective just how bad this offense has been, Miami’s on base % in that same span sits at just .291, the lowest in the MLB.

The poor offensive numbers result from Miami’s inability to see the baseball. The Marlins are drawing a walk in just 5.8% of at-bats since the All-Star break, and even if contact is made the ball is oftentimes staying on the ground, as evidenced by Miami’s 46.6% ground ball rate. The Marlins rank in the bottom two of the majors in both of those categories as well.

For comparison, Miami’s on base % and wRC+ sat at .324 and 97, respectively, prior to the All-Star break. This offense was never special, but it is now one of the worst in the MLB.

Braxton Garrett (7-5 record, 3.96 ERA) will get the start on the mound for Miami, hoping that his offense can provide him with some breathing room. However, Garrett has many shortcomings, including his vulnerability to hard contact (47.7% Hard Hit rate) and low pitch velocity. His xERA also sits at 4.67, indicating regression in the future.

Washington Nationals

Opposite of Miami, the Washington Nationals have been quite hot since returning from the All-Star break, posting a 25-18 record and moving into fourth place in the NL East.

What’s been the key difference maker in that time? Well, it appears that Washington has suddenly become an effective offense, and it is leading to wins in bunches.

Washington has scored the 11th-most runs since the All-Star break, sending 207 players around the bases. In that time we’ve seen the team’s wRC+ and BABIP remain flat, but Washington’s 19.5% strikeout rate ranks in the top-five of the MLB, showing that this team is putting bats on the ball at a high clip.

The Nationals have been even more impressive against left-handed pitching recently, which they will face tonight with Braxton Garrett.

The Nats rank in the top half of the league against left-handed pitching in wRC+ (105), strikeout rate (16.5%), OPS (.754), and Hard Hit Rate (35.6%), per FanGraphs, since August 1st. Washington also ranks in the top-ten in runs scored (37) in those situations, further exemplifying the favorable matchup they have on their hands tonight.

What’s the Play?

Usually we stick with one of the money line or over/under predictions that our model makes, but today we are going to roll with Nationals over 3.5 team runs.

Miami has had Washington’s number all season long, but most of the season series was played in the front-half of the season when these were two completely different teams. The last time we saw Braxton Garrett face the Nationals was just last week, a game in which he allowed seven hits and three runs while the Nationals scored seven runs in the contest.

Washington can hit lefties around, and even with a big bat like Lance Thomas’ listed as Day-to-Day due to back soreness, we feel the Nationals are in a position to have another big day on offense.

The Play: Nationals Over 3.5 runs (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Yankees- 65-68 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Miami Marlins- 66-67 overall this season, 7-2 against the Nationals this season

• Atlanta Braves- 87-45 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Miami Marlins- Under is 71-58-4 this season, 36-30-3 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- Over is 70-59-3 this season, 33-31-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 76-58 overall this season, 73-52 as an underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💥 Bryce Harper hits milestone homer in loss to Angels. Bryce Harper hit his 300th career home run on Wednesday afternoon, launching the milestone shot against the Los Angeles Angels. The dinger was Harper’s 15th homer of the season and gave Philadelphia an 8-7 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning, but the Phillies would go on to lose 10-8. Harper, who has now hit 10 homers in the month of August and six in the last nine games, became the 158th player to join the 300-home run club, and it took just 1,481 games to do so.

🔥 Mariners stay red hot, set franchise record for wins in a month. The 2023 Mariners, aiming for their first American League West title since 2001, set a new franchise record with 21 wins in August, surpassing the historic 116-win team of 2001 which reached 20 wins in multiple months. Their 5-4 comeback victory against the Oakland Athletics marked this achievement, securing a share of first place in their division as they embark on a crucial road trip. The Mariners' recent successes, including six consecutive series wins and winning 11 of their last 12 games, have officially made Seattle a massive threat with just one month to play.

☎️ Yankees call up two top prospects. The New York Yankees are officially calling it quits for the 2023 season, resulting in the team bringing some of its top prospects to the big leagues. 20-year old Jasson Dominguez and 24-year old Austin Wells are expected to be activated to the active roster for Friday’s contest against the Houston Astros, bringing more youth to a team that already includes three key players 23 years of age or younger. It’s unlikely the young guns prevent the Yankees from posting their first losing season in nearly 30 years, but it will certainly give Yankees fans hope for the future.

🇺🇸 United States wins again at FIBA World Cup. The United States continued their dominant run in the Basketball World Cup with yet another lopsided victory. Led by Anthony Edwards' 22 points, the U.S. defeated Jordan 110-62 to finish atop Group C with a 3-0 record, covering the 41-point spread in the process. The U.S. is set to face Montenegro in the second round after easily progressing through the group stage, with this victory marking their eighth consecutive win this summer, including exhibitions.

🤕 Cam Rising doubtful tonight against Florida. Highly regarded Utah quarterback Cam Rising is unlikely to play in Thursday's matchup against the Florida Gators, with sources indicating he's doubtful for the game. Rising, known for his impressive 18-6 record as a starter and his role in leading the No. 14 Utes to consecutive Pac-12 titles, has been recovering from an ACL tear sustained during the Rose Bowl. Junior Bryson Barnes is anticipated to start in his place, with redshirt freshman Nate Johnson contributing with a run-focused approach.

⛸ Carl Hagelin officially hangs up the skates. Carl Hagelin, aged 35, has chosen to retire from the NHL due to an eye injury that has kept him out of play for over a year. The injury occurred when Hagelin was struck by a stray stick in practice with the Washington Capitals on March 1, 2022, leading to surgery and concerns about his quality of life beyond hockey. Hagelin, a skillful Swedish winger, also underwent hip resurfacing surgery in February, following previous arthroscopic surgery in an effort to address a long-standing hip injury.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the record for the longest field goal in NFL history, and how long was the kick?

Question #2- The Cleveland Cavaliers selected LeBron James with the No.1 overall pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, but he wasn’t the only player drafted by the Cavs that night. Who else did Cleveland select in 2003?

Question #3- Who holds the MLB record for the most career grand slams, and how many did that player hit?

Anyone know what has happened on August 31st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 31st…

1990- Ken Griffey Sr. and Ken Griffey Jr. become the first father-son duo to play on the same MLB team, both suiting up for the Seattle Mariners. The Griffey’s would each record a single in the first inning, and both would later come around to score. The Griffey’s stuck together for just two seasons though, with Griffey Sr. retiring after the 1991 season.

1997- The New York Yankees retire Don Mattingly’s jersey number (#23). As of today there are 22 numbers retired by the Yankees franchise, eight more than the next closest team (St. Louis Cardinals). Mattingly certainly deserved to have his number immortalized though, ending 14-year MLB career, all of which was spent with the Yankees, with a .307 batting average, 222 home runs, and 1,099 RBIs.

2021- Portuguese football star Cristiano Ronaldo officially becomes a member of Manchester United after his transfer from Italian club Juventus is confirmed. It would be the second time in Ronaldo’s career that he would rep the Man United jersey, with the first lasting from 2003-2009. His second stint would last until the end of the 2022 season, and he now plays for Al Nassr in Saudi Arabia.

1. Justin Tucker (66 yards)

2. Jason Kapono

3. Alex Rodriguez (25)