In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NBA, and NHL, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 1-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6-1

Puck Line Predictions: 10-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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• NBA player props and projected stat lines, like the example below (posted Friday & Saturday)

• Our NFL model’s Anytime TD Scorers for Week 14 (Posted Saturday)

• Five additional NFL props and projected stat lines (Posted Sunday)

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The NBA is back in full swing after a small two-game slate yesterday, with 26 teams hitting the hardwood tonight. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s matchups are below.

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Model Predicts- Thunder ML, UNDER 236.5, Thunder -4

The Golden State Warriors will begin a three-game road trip on Friday, with the first stop coming in Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder.

Golden State has had far from an ideal start to the 2023 campaign, as the Warriors currently sit in 11th in the Western Conference with a 10-11 record. Meanwhile, it feels like the Thunder have yet to slow down from their hot start, winning 13 of their first 20 games of the season.

This will be the fourth time the Warriors and Thunder face off this season. Oklahoma City has posted a 2-1 record in the season series, and our model expects that to improve to 3-1 tonight. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Golden State Warriors

• Coming off narrow win against Portland Trail Blazers last game

  • Won 110-106. Poor shooting efficiency- shot 42% overall and 29% from three

• Close games like that have been the norm this season

  • 12 of last 13 games have been decided by single digits

  • Series of bad performances in that stretch- 4-9 record, -2.7 Net Rating

• Don’t have the same offensive fire power we are used to seeing

  • Own 113.6 Offensive Rating- down form 115.1 a season ago

  • Luckily have lots of depth- Rank 6th in bench points per game

Oklahoma City Thunder

• Had worst offensive performance in last game against Rockets

  • Scored 101 points while shooting 42% overall and 28% from three

• Have still been best team in NBA over last ten games

  • Rank 1st in Net Rating at +13.5. No other team is higher than +5.7

  • Defense has shined- 107.1 Defensive Rating, opponents shooting 42.8% from field

• Have dominated Golden State this season

  • 2-1 record, 125.6 Offensive Rating, +24 point differential

What’s the Play?

Oklahoma City’s loss to the Rockets on Wednesday was a bad one, but we agree with our model that the Thunder will bounce back today and cover the spread.

The Thunder have shown in the previous three meetings with the Warriors that Golden State can’t match up with them. In that three-game span we’ve seen OKC dominate both ends of the floor, posting a +8.0 Net Rating. That dominance has been more noticeable on offense, as the Thunder are averaging 132.3 points per game while shooting 54.1% overall and 50.0% from three against the Warriors this season (NBA.com).

OKC has been the best team in the NBA for the last three or so weeks, and this is a great spot for the Thunder to get back to their winning ways.

The Play: Thunder -3 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cleveland Cavaliers- 12-9 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 13-7 overall this season, 6-4 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Antonio Spurs- Over is 13-7 this season, 8-2 as the home team

• Portland Trail Blazers- Under is 12-8 this season, 5-2 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 14-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 7-3 ATS as the home team

• Houston Rockets- 11-5-2 ATS this season, 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog

🏆 Pacers advance to In-Season Tournament Final, will face Lakers. The Indiana Pacers took down the mighty Milwaukee Bucks 128-119 in Las Vegas last night. This win is significant as it propelled the Pacers to the In-Season Tournament final, showcasing their resilience and determination. Notably, Tyrese Haliburton's standout performance, scoring 27 points and 15 assists, alongside Myles Turner's 26 points and 10 rebounds, contributed to the Pacers' victory, leading them to face the Los Angeles Lakers next in Las Vegas at 8:30 pm on Saturday.

🤕 Duren to miss two weeks with ankle injury. Jalen Duren will be sidelined for approximately two weeks due to a left ankle sprain. The injury occurred late in the fourth quarter during the Detroit Pistons' 116-102 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, marking their 18th consecutive defeat, with Duren visibly in pain and frustrated after rolling his ankle. The setback compounds the team's ongoing struggles, especially with Duren being a key part of their young core.

A slow Friday night of NHL hockey is on the horizon, with just three games scheduled today. Our model’s predictions for those three matchups are below.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Florida Panthers

Model Predicts- Panthers ML, UNDER 6.5, Penguins +1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins will end their daunting three-game road trip on Friday night, with the final stop coming in the Sunshine State to take on the Panthers

So far the road trip has not been kind to Pittsburgh, dropping the first two games to the Philadelphia Flyers and Tampa Bay Lightning. As a result, the Penguins are 11-11-3 this season and a poor 0-3 to begin December, while the Panthers own a stellar 15-8-2 record.

Our model doesn’t give either team much of an edge in this matchup, but it does see a significant opportunity on the total. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Have yet to win game in December

  • 0-3 overall, -5 goal differential

  • Scoring 1.67 goals per game

• Lack of offense is due to failure to generate pressure

  • Generating just 6.33 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in last three games

  • As a result, xGF/60 comes in at 1.90

• Expected goalie- Tristan Jarry

  • .929 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 13th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +6.8

Florida Panthers

• Offense has been hot over last five games

  • Have scored 19 goals in that time. Rank 4th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 (3.22)

• However, recent performance doesn’t reflect sluggish offense we’ve seen this season

  • Rank 22nd in GF/60 in 5-on-5

  • Generate lots of pressure-34 shots on goal per game-but rarely convert: Rank 25th in shooting % and 21st in power play success

• Expected goalie- Sergei Bobrovsky

  • .920 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 19th in GSAx (+3.9)

What’s the Play?

The Panthers’ offense has been hot lately, but we agree with our model that tonight’s contest will be low-scoring.

Pittsburgh has struggled to get its offense going this month, and that likely won’t change tonight. Per Natural Stat Trick, Florida ranks 8th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5 this season, a result of allowing the third-fewest shots on goal per game and 7th fewest high-danger scoring chance in 5-on-5.

However, we shouldn’t expect Florida to pile on the goals either, as their poor shooting efficiency is a bad matchup against a Penguins team that ranks sixth in GA/60 in 5-on-5 (2.07).

Additionally, both Jarry and Bobrovsky have been solid in net, making goals even harder to come by. We’ll take the under here.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Florida Panthers- 15-8-2 overall this season, 8-4 as the home team

• Edmonton Oilers- 10-12-1 overall this season, 5-0 in last five games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 15-7-3 this season with average total of 5.60

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Puck line is 14-11 this season

💪 Ovechkin reaches 1,500 points for career. Alexander Ovechkin reached a significant milestone in his NHL career, becoming the 16th player in league history to achieve 1,500 points. Ovechkin reached the milestone in the third period last night, which came from an assists on a Dylan Strome goal. Achieving this feat in his 1,370th game, Ovechkin stands as the 12th-fastest player to reach 1,500 points, joining Sidney Crosby as the only other active player in this exclusive club.

🤕 Chabot out at least one month. Ottawa Senators defenseman Thomas Chabot will be absent for at least a month due to an undisclosed ailment, confirmed by head coach D.J. Smith following Thursday's game. Chabot sustained the injury on December 2 against the Seattle Kraken and has been undergoing assessments, missing the subsequent two games as a result. With only nine games played this season due to a previous hand injury in October, Chabot's recurring injuries have plagued his career, having completed a full 70-game season only twice in seven years.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is the all-time leading scorer in San Antonio Spurs history?

Question #2- Trea Turner has played for two NL East teams in his career, the Philadelphia Phillies and what other franchise?

Question #3- How many times did Wayne Gretzky win the Stanley Cup in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on December 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 8th…

1987- Philadelphia Flyers goalie Ron Hextall becomes the first goalie in NHL history to score a goal. Hextall’s score came in a 5-2 win against the Boston Bruins, a result of Boston pulling its goalie final minutes. Hextall went on to score one more goal in his career, which came just two years after his first.

2007- Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow wins the 73rd Heisman Trophy. Tebow became the first sophomore in NCAA history to win the award, and also joined Steve Spurrier and Dany Wuerffel as the lone gators to take home the prestigious trophy. He would finish his historic season with 3,132 passing yards and 29 touchdown passes, and added an additional 22 scores on the ground.

2022- WNBA star Brittany Griner is released from Russian custody. Griner was held in Russia for nearly 10 months on drug smuggling charges, and was released in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Griner has since resumed her stellar WNBA career since returning to American soil, most recently posting 17.5 points per game for the Phoenix Mercury last season.

1. Tim Duncan

2. Washington Nationals

3. 4