In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Puck Line Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 6-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-6

Puck Line Predictions: 4-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are three college football games set to take place on Friday, giving us a nice appetizer for what will be a busy Saturday. You can see our model’s predictions for all three matchups below.

Fresno State @ Utah State

Model Predicts- Fresno State ML, OVER 57, Fresno State -4.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs will hit the road for the second week in a row as the team visits Utah State on Friday night.

Fresno State enters tonight’s matchup at 5-1, but suffered its first loss of the season in a 24-19 defeat to Wyoming last week. Meanwhile, Utah State is 3-3 overall and was won two straight games.

Momentum is on the Aggies’ side here, but our model expects Fresno State to take care of a business in a high-scoring contest. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Fresno State Bulldogs

• Defense is overrated due to weak schedule

  • Have allowed 10.75 points per game over last 4 weeks

    • ASU had 4th string QB, Kent State and Nevada have success rate of 36% or less

    • Gave up 24 points in loss to Wyoming

  • Vulnerable to explosive plays

    • Have surrendered 7 plays of 40+ yards, 1 for 80+

• Offense often makes up for any defensive mishap

  • 13 plays of 40+ yards

  • Pass is biggest weapon- 18th in pass yards per game (301.7), tied for 6th in Pass TDs (17)

• Will likely be without starting QB Mikey Keene

  • Replaced with Logan Fife- 68 yards and TD last week after coming in in 4th quarter

Utah State Aggies

• Offense has been cooking over last three weeks

  • 38.67 points per game, 537.3 yards per game

• One of more explosive teams in NCAA

  • 31 plays of 40+ yards, 9 plays of 60+ yards

  • Rank 29th in yards per play (6.58)

• Defense has some flaws

  • 54% opponent success rate on standard downs

  • Vulnerable to the deep pass- Have given up 9 pass plays of 40+ yards. Rank 89th in pass yards allowed per game

  • 18.6% Havoc rate- not creating many tackles for loss, turnovers, etc.

What’s the Play?

Our model is predicting a bounce back game from Fresno State here. However, we feel this is a good spot to back the over.

Utah State has had a soft schedule recently, facing two of the three worst pass defenses in FBS, however, Fresno State’s vulnerability to explosive plays is something the Aggies will be able to expose in the pass game tonight. They let the ball fly, and we don’t see that changing.

Fresno State has also carved teams up through the air all season long, and even with Mikey Keene out we think the Bulldog offense can still move the ball down the field against an Aggie defense that also ranks 124th in opponent rush success. We’ll bet on this game being a shootout.

The Play: Over 55.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tulane- 4-1 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Fresno State- 5-1 overall this season, 2-1 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Utah State- Over is 5-1 overall this season with average total of 70.33 points scored

• Stanford- Under is 4-1 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Fresno State- 3-3 against the spread (ATS) this season

👀 Travis Hunter potentially making his return. Colorado's star Travis Hunter is poised for a return against Stanford on Friday, according to Coach Deion Sanders, after missing the last three games due to a lacerated liver injury. Hunter, who plays as a cornerback and wide receiver, has been cleared to play and is actively practicing. However, Sanders wants to ensure Hunter is in top form to be a valuable asset rather than a liability for the team, as the Buffaloes aim to maintain their 4-2 record.

🤕 Juice Wells likely out against Florida. South Carolina receiver Antwane "Juice" Wells Jr. is unlikely to participate in the upcoming game against Florida as he recuperates from a left foot injury. Coach Shane Beamer provided an update on Wells' status, mentioning that he injured his foot in a previous game against Georgia and has been undergoing rehabilitation during the team's bye week. While Wells is making rapid progress in his healing process, Beamer is cautious not to rush his return, emphasizing the importance of his mental readiness before returning to the field.

After a week full of NHL games, the league has scheduled just two games for Friday. Our model predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Arizona Coyotes @ New Jersey devils

Model Predicts- Devils ML, OVER 6.5, Coyotes +1.5

The Arizona Coyotes will travel to the East Coast to take on the New Jersey Devils on Friday night.

Arizona enters this season coming off a miserable 2022-23 campaign, one that saw the Coyotes finish 28-40-14. Meanwhile, New Jersey found their way to the second round of the postseason and is already 1-0 this season.

Our model heavily favors the Devils here, which should com as no surprise. However, it still believes the Coyotes can keep things close, so let’s take a look at why that is.

Arizona Coyotes

• Bad at just about everything last season

  • Offense- 30th in xGF/60, 30th in high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60), and 31st in shots for per 60 minutes (SF/60) in 5-on-5 situations

  • Defense- bottom 8 in xGA/60 and high danger chances against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Have made some improvements to roster

  • Added vets like Jason Zucker, Alexander Kerfoot, and Matt Dumba

  • Have Rookie of the Year candidate in Logan Cooley

• Starting goalie- Karel Vejmelka

  • Ranked 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) last season (MoneyPuck)

  • .915 Save % and .825 high danger Save % last season

New Jersey Devils

• In defensive battle with Detroit for most of last night

  • No goals scored in first 30 minutes

  • Floodgates opened late- 4 goals in final 11 minutes of 3rd period

• Struggled to get much offense going in debut game

  • Held to six shots on goal on 1st and 3rd periods

  • Generated just six high danger chances all game (Natural Stat Trick)

• Staring goalie- Akira Schmid

  • Ranked 18th in GSAx last season (8.2)

  • .924 Save % and .803 high danger Save % last season

What’s the Play?

A back-to-back is a tough spot for the Devils to be in so early in the season, and Arizona’s improvements up and down the roster and slight advantage in net makes us believe that this can be a close game.

In addition to all of Arizona’s additions, the Coyotes still have Logan Keller on the roster, who tallied 37 goals and 49 assists last year in his rookie season. He gives Arizona some firepower on the wing, which should provided a massive boost to a defense that was in a dog fight for most of last night’s game before we started to see them crumble late.

It’s early in the season, but not many teams are quite in shape for a back-to-back yet, and New Jersey is no exception. Arizona has some talent and Vejmelka has proven to be a solid option in net, so we’ll take the Coyotes at +1.5.

The Play: Coyotes +1.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 52-22-8 last season, 1-0 in 2023-24 season

• Washington Capitals- 35-37-10 last season, 18-16-7 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Arizona Coyotes- Over was 41-37-4 last season with average total of 6.43 goals

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under was 42-35-5 last season, 1-0 this season

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Coyotes- Puck line was 45-37 overall last season.

⚡️Lightning postponing Stamkos negotiations until end of season. Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos will have to wait until the conclusion of the 2023-24 season to secure a new contract. Despite his desire for an extension, Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois has decided to wait until after the season to assess the team's performance and the fit of new additions before negotiating a new deal. BriseBois expressed a strong desire for Stamkos to continue with the organization, and aims for the club to remain a contender throughout his tenure.

💰Senators having trouble with cap space. Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion is actively exploring options to create cap space as the team's restricted free agent, Shane Pinto, remains unsigned. The Senators have engaged in discussions regarding moving forward Mathieu Joseph, and there have also been talks about trading defenseman Erik Brannstrom. Brannstrom, who had 18 points in 74 games last season, signed a one-year, $2 million contract during the summer and is set to become a restricted free agent at the end of the season.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two Atlantic Division teams have never one a Stanley Cup, with one being the Florida Panthers. Name the second team.

Question #2- Before being selected in the second round of the 2006 NBA Draft, P.J. Tucker played college basketball at what university?

Question #3- Davante Adams, Derek Carr, and Paul George all attended what university in California?

Anyone know what has happened on October 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 13th…

1967- The Seattle SuperSonics make their NBA debut. Seattle’s introduction to the league went rather poorly, suffering a 144-116 loss to the San Francisco Warriors. The SuperSonics would play in Seattle until the conclusion of the 2008 season, when the team was moved to Oklahoma City and renamed to the Thunder.

2002- The Anaheim Angels defeat the Minnesota Twins to win the ALCS. Anaheim nearly swept Minnesota in the series, winning four of five games. The Angels would carry that momentum with them into the World Series, where they would go on to defeat the San Francisco Giants in seven games.

2019- American gymnast Simone Biles becomes the most decorated gymnast in world history. Biles earned the crown by winning her 25th world championship medal while at the world championships in Stuttgart, Germany. Fast forward to today, and Biles now owns 30 world championship medals, 23 of which are gold.

1. Buffalo Sabres

2. Texas

3. Fresno State