In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 14-1

Over/Under Predictions: 9-6

Spread Predictions: 8-7

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6

Run Line Predictions: 8-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are 14 NFL games scheduled to take place at all times of the day today, with the first beginning at 9:30 am ET. You can see our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups below.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Model Predicts- Browns ML, UNDER 38.5, Browns -1.5

The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Cleveland, Ohio to take on the Browns in the first meeting between the two teams this season.

Baltimore enters today’s matchup at 2-1 following a loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2, a game in which Indianapolis was without Anthony Richardson. Cleveland is also 2-1 this season following a 27-3 win over Tennessee last Sunday.

An AFC North rivalry game never disappoints, and our model thinks the Browns can take car of business at home in a low scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Baltimore Ravens

• Defense has been rock solid- common over last several seasons

  • 2nd in yards per play (4.1), 6th in EPA/play

  • Great at generating pressure- 6th in pass rush win rate, 11 sacks through three weeks

  • Allowing TD on just 37.5% of red zone drives

• Offense is built to run clock and isn’t explosive through air

  • Run ball on 53% of plays- highest in NFL

  • Lamar Jackson- 75% completion %, but ranks 26th in air yards (6.9)

  • No Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman this week. Likely makes run game top priority

  • Slow tempo- 21st in seconds per play

Cleveland Browns

• No defense better in NFL

  • Rank 1st in EPA/play and yards per play

  • Holding opponent to just 25.8% success rate

  • Allowing 163.7 yards per game- only 52 yards on the ground

  • Have yet to allow a touchdown or field goal inside the red zone this season

• Offense has left a little to be desired

  • 22nd in EPA/play, 20th in success rate

  • Deshaun Watson- completing 65% of passes, ranks 18th in QB Rating

    • Also dealing with shoulder injury, which could affect his ability to throw

• Love to run football

  • Run on 48% of plays this season- 7th highest in NFL

  • Struggled without Nick Chubb last week- 78 rush yards

• Slow tempo- 28th in seconds per play

What’s the Play?

Deshaun Watson popping up on the injury report makes it difficult to pick a side in this matchup. However, we feel that the under is still a prediction that holds some value.

Both Baltimore and Cleveland have showed that running the ball is a priority for their offense, and injuries to either quarterbacks or receivers for both teams will likely result in both keeping the football on the ground this week. We’re also dealing with two offenses that simply do not allow many, or in the case of the Browns any, touchdowns to be scored in the red zone, once again hinting at a low scoring contest.

Our model is only projecting about 34 points to be scored in this matchup. That gives us enough confidence in the under.

The Play: Under 38.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Buffalo Bills- 2-1 overall this season, 9-1 in last 10 games against the Dolphins

• Cleveland Browns- 2-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

• New Orleans Saints- 2-1 overall this season, 1-0 against division opponents (Play NFC South rival Tampa Bay today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Ravens- Under is 2-1 overall this season, 8-6 against division opponents since 2021 (Play AFC North rival Cleveland today)

• Cleveland Browns- Under is 2-1 overall this season, 8-5-1 against division opponents since 2021

• Chicago Bears- Over is 3-0 overall this season with average total of 51 points

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Cowboys- 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-0 ATS as the home team

• Arizona Cardinals- 3-0 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog

For additional Week 3 NFL bets, check out our analysis with the host of Chuck’s Chat on Youtube.

They also have a newsletter that dives into their best bets for the NFL and NCAA every weekend. You can sign up by clicking below⬇️

😬 Raiders release Chandler Jones after arrest. The Las Vegas Raiders officially released defensive end Chandler Jones on Saturday following his arrest in Las Vegas. Jones was arrested for allegedly violating a domestic violence temporary protective order amidst a tumultuous week marked by multiple social media posts. The Raiders expressed their hope for Jones to receive the necessary care, and he was released from the team due to conduct detrimental to the organization, relieving them of financial commitments under his three-year, $51 million contract.

🤕 David Njoku questionable against Revens. Cleveland Browns' tight end David Njoku is questionable for the upcoming game against the Baltimore Ravens due to burn injuries sustained in a household accident, where he was trying to light a fire pit on Friday night. The team has activated tight end Zaire Mitchell-Paden from the practice squad as a potential replacement. Despite the injury, Njoku hinted on social media that he may still be available for the Ravens game.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today in what is the final day of the 2023 regular season. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 10 of today’s matchups.

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Braves ML, UNDER 11, Nationals +1.5

The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves will finish off their regular seasons on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta.

The Braves locked up a spot in the postseason several weeks ago, and will enter today’s matchup looking to win their 105th game of the season. Meanwhile, the Nationals never came within striking distance of the postseason and have lost six of their last eight games.

It is hard to predict what is going to happen in any MLB game at this stage in the season due to most playoff teams resting their stars. However, we feel confident in our model’s prediction that the Nationals can keep the game close this afternoon. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Washington Nationals

• 2-6 in last 8 games

  • Both wins came against Atlanta, but also have 4 losses against them

• Offense has been sub-par in that span

  • 87 wRC+, .280 BABIP, and .699 OPS, per FanGraphs

  • Only 6.5% walk rate- 26th in MLB

  • 20.6% strikeout rate indicates team is still making contact though

• Jackson Rutledge (1-1 record, 6.00 ERA) will get start on mound

  • One bad outing is skewing ERA

  • 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in last 11.1 innings

  • Last game against Braves- 5.1 innings, 1 run, Nationals win

Atlanta Braves

• Continue to stay red hot at plate

  • 122 wRC+ and .836 OPS in September- top 3 in both categories

  • 51 home runs led league last month

  • However, posted low BABIP (.299) and walk rate (7.6%) last month

• Pitching staff has struggled over last two games against Nationals

  • 5.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in that time

  • Have allowed double digit hits in both games

• Dylan Dodd (2-2 record, 7.62 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Not generating swings and misses- 10.3% strikeout rate and 20.5% whiff rate

  • Vulnerable to barrel- 13.6% Barrel rate

  • Owns 9.07 xERA, showing that even more regression is on the horizon

What’s the Play?

It’s unclear what Atlanta is going to do with its lineup today. The team has already locked up a playoff spot so some of their best guys could sit this one out, but Atlanta also has a first round bye so rest is already built in.

Regardless of what happens though, we still believe Washington can keep things close.

The Nationals have shown over the weekend that it can size up this pitching staff, and they should have no problems doing to same with Dodd this afternoon. Dodd’s inability to avoid contact and the barrel will likely lead to runs in bunches this afternoon, and owning a 35.5% ground ball rate certainly doesn’t help.

Washington has been keeping things tight this entire series and has the better pitcher today. We’ll take that as a sign to back them on the run line.

The Play: Nationals +1.5 (+105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 99-62 overall this season, 46-34 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- 101-60 overall this season, 32-19 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Boston today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Under is 90-67-4 this season- highest win % in MLB

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 79-71-11 this season, 26-24-1 against division opponents

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 85-76 this season, 50-30 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Marlins clinch playoff spot with win over Pirates. Despite low expectations and being viewed as underdogs, the Marlins have clinched their fourth playoff appearance in franchise history, marking the first time in a full-length season since their 2003 World Series victory. Miami did so by defeating the Pirates 7-3 on Saturday, the team’s fifth win in the last six games. This accomplishment is significant, as it's the team's first playoff berth under the leadership of general manager Kim Ng, MLB's first female GM, and the second during Bruce Sherman's ownership.

🤕 Felix Bautista to have Tommy John surgery. Baltimore Orioles reliever Felix Bautista is set to undergo Tommy John surgery next month, ruling him out for the playoffs and likely the entire 2024 season. Bautista landed on the 15-day injured list on August 26th after sustaining an injury during a game against the Colorado Rockies. General manager Mike Elias confirmed that the decision for surgery had been expected due to the extent of the injury, and also revealed that Bautista had agreed to a new two-year contract.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who is Ohio State’s all-time leading passer, who is also currently the assistant quarterbacks coach for the Detroit Lions?

Question #2- Before winning college basketball national championships, Kevin Ollie played in the NBA from 1997-2010. How many different teams did Ollie play for in his career.

Question #3- Which NFL team has the most Hall of Fame inductees, sitting at the top of the list with 30?

Anyone know what has happened on October 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 1st…

1997- Former Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Garnett signs a six-year, $123 million contract extension. The extension was a record at the time, and Garnett signed the deal just two-years after graduating high school. He would play for Minnesota until 2007 before suiting up for the Celtics and Nets, and again the Timberwolves, before retiring in 2016.

2004- Seattle Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki records hi 258th hit of the season. The hit set a new single-season record, with Suzuki taking down George Sisler’s previous record of 257 that stood for 84 years. Suzuki would end the season with 262 hits, which still remains the most in a season in MLB history.

2017- Former NFL star O.J. Simpson is released from Nevada’s Lovelock Prison. Simpson was spending time behind bars after being convicted of armed robbery and kidnapping, but was released just nine years into a 33-year sentence. He remains free to this day, and you can often see him posting golf videos of himself on social media.

1. J.T. Barrett

2. 13

3. Chicago Bears