In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, November 24, 2023.

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There are 15 NCCAF games with ranked opponents scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups are below.

Ohio State @ Michigan

Model Predicts- Michigan ML, UNDER 46.5, Ohio State +3.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes will make their way to Ann Arbor, Michigan to take on their rival, the Michigan Wolverines, on Saturday.

The Buckeyes enter this week with a perfect 11-0 record, most recently dismantling the Minnesota Golden Gophers 37-3 last weekend. Coincidentally, the Wolverines are in the exact same position as their rival, posting an 11-0 record this season too.

This matchup has plenty on the line, with a trip to the Big 10 Championship and potentially the College Football Playoff up for grabs. Let’s take a look at why our model is leaning toward Michigan today, as well as its best bet for today’s matchup.

Ohio State Buckeyes

• Coming off two blowout wins

  • Held Michigan State and Minnesota to three points each

  • +69 point differential across those two games

• Offense isn’t huge threat

  • QB Kyle McCord- completes 66.4% of passes, 9.1 yards per attempt

  • 34% success rate on passing downs

  • 4.33 yards per rush attempt

• Defense is large reason for undefeated record

  • Rank 1st in yards per play (3.99)

  • Have held opponents to 17 points or less in all 11 games

  • Don’t allow explosive plays- 1 play of 40+ yards this season

Michigan Wolverines

• Just as elite defensively as Ohio State

  • Rank 4th in yards per play (4.21)

  • Have allowed just 11 plays of 40+ yards

  • Held opponents to 15 points or less in 10 of 11 games

• Offense is rather conservative

  • QB JJ McCarthy- 9.9 yards per pass attempt, 212.3 pass yards per game

  • Only 11 plays of 40+ yards this season

What’s the Play?

Defense has been the theme for both of these teams this season, and as a result we are going to back our model’s prediction of the under today.

Neither McCarthy nor McCord is a huge threat to do damage to through the air, and it will be even harder for either to do so today. Per College Football Data, both Michigan and Ohio State own an opponent success rate of 34% or less on passing downs, forecasting a struggle to throw the ball is on the horizon.

Additionally, the key to a high-scoring game are explosive plays, but as discussed earlier, Ohio State and Michigan have surrendered a combined 12 plays of 40+ yards this season.

Both offenses have beaten up on bad teams, but it’s likely we see a defensive battle this afternoon. Our model is projecting roughly 45 points to be scored, giving us some room on the under.

The Play: Under 46.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Michigan- 11-0 this season, 6-0 as the home team

• Louisville- 10-1 overall this season, 6-0 as the home team

• Clemson- 7-4 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Ohio State- Under is 9-2 this season, 7-1 against Big 10 opponents

• LSU- Over is 10-1 this season, 5-1 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Arizona- 9-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 6-2 ATS as Pac 12 opponents

• Liberty- 8-3 ATS this season, 4-0 ATS as the away team

🐶 Will Rogers set to enter transfer portal. Mississippi State's quarterback Will Rogers declared his intention to enter the NCAA transfer portal before the winter window opens on Dec. 4. Rogers, who missed most of this season due to injury, is widely considered one of the SEC's top passers. During his tenure at Mississippi State, Rogers set records, including breaking the SEC's career completions record and ranking second in passing yards.

🦫 Jonathan Smith top target for Michigan State coaching job. Oregon State Beavers football coach, Jonathan Smith, is a prime candidate sought after by Michigan State following Mel Tucker's departure. Michigan State dismissed Tucker earlier in the season due to cause amid a sexual misconduct investigation. Smith, maintaining a 34-35 record since taking over at his alma mater in 2017, steered Oregon State to winning seasons in 2021, 2022, and an 8-4 record in 2023.

After a busy day of basketball yesterday, the NBA has given us just six games today. Our model’s predictions for all six of today’s matchups can be found below.

Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets

Model Predicts- Heat ML, OVER 216, Heat +3.5

The Miami Heat will stay in the Big Apple for one more day on Saturday, this time taking on the Nets across the bridge in Brooklyn.

Miami enters today’s this matchup on quite the hot streak, winning nine of 12 games in November following a loss to the New York Knicks on Friday. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is trending in the opposite direction, entering today with a 6-8 record after losing three straight games.

Our model shows a significant edge on the Heat today, but we are more focused on the edge that can be found on the total in today’s matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Miami Heat

• One of hottest teams in NBA this month

  • Have won 9 of 12 games since November 1st

  • +80 point differential in those 12 games

• Have showed great balance over last three games

  • Rank 3rd in Net Rating (+17.6). 121.1 Offensive Rating and 103.5 Defensive Rating

  • Held opponents to 100 points or less in all three games

• Injuries are starting to pile up

  • Tyler Herro and Dru Smith OUT, Duncan Robinson questionable

Brooklyn Nets

• Own record below .500 because of losing streak

  • 0-3 in last three games. -31 point differential

• Mostly healthy, but two key injuries have hurt team

  • Cam Thomas- leading scorer (26.9 ppg)

  • Ben Simmons- leading rebounder and best defender

  • 2-4 overall without Thomas. 3-4 without Simmons

• Have lost their defensive presence without Simmons

  • Rank 29th in Defensive Rating (128.3) in last three games

  • Opponents shooting 47.1% overall and 41.2% from three

What’s the Play?

Miami will always be one of the better defensive teams in the league, and we’ve seen that over the Heat’s last three games. However, we agree with our model that this is a great spot for the over.

Brooklyn has no defensive presence without Simmons on the floor, especially on the perimeter. Opponents are getting whatever they want from behind the arc, a large reason why Brooklyn’s opponents are averaging 130 points per game over the last three games.

However, the Nets still have the tools to pile on the points without Thomas on the floor. Albeit an overtime contest, four Nets’ players scored at least 22 points in Brooklyn’s last game against Atlanta, with Mikal Bridges leading the way with 45.

This is a great spot for both teams to run up the score.

The Play: Over 216 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 11-4 overall this season, 6-0 in last six games

• Miami Heat- 10-6 overall this season, 9-3 in last 12 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Brooklyn Nets- Over is 8-6 this season, 4-3 as the home team

• Los Angeles Clippers- Under is 4-1-1 at home this season, highest win % in NBA

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 12-3 against the spread (ATS) this season, 6-1 ATS as an underdog

• New Orleans Pelicans- 10-5-1 ATS this season, 7-3 ATS as the home team

🪄 Magic beat Celtics for sixth straight win. The Orlando Magic secured their sixth consecutive victory in the NBA's In-Season Tournament, triumphing 113-96 over the Boston Celtics. Moritz Wagner led with 27 points for Orlando, supported by Paolo Banchero's 23 points and Franz Wagner's versatile performance of 17 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. The win left both teams tied at 3-1 in group play, with the Magic holding a plus-17 point differential compared to the Celtics' zero.

👃 Hachimura out at least one week with nasal fracture. The Los Angeles Lakers faced another setback, as forward Rui Hachimura underwent a procedure for a nasal fracture. Hachimura won't join the team for their upcoming four-game trip spanning Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Oklahoma City, and is set to be reevaluated by team doctors after about a week. Hachimura, who had a slow start to the season due to a concussion in October, had begun to demonstrate his impact, averaging 13.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in his eight previous games.

Just like the NBA, the NHL will slow down today after a busy Friday, with eight games scheduled to take place. Our model’s predictions for all eight matchups are below.

There is no NHL Featured Matchup today.

Money Line Trends 💰

• Boston Bruins- 14-2-3 overall this season, 7-1-2 as the away team

• Toronto Maple Leafs- 10-5-3 overall this season, 5-1-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Jose Sharks- Under is 13-5-2 this season with average total of 5.80

• Colorado Avalanche- Over is 11-7-1 this season with average total of 6.84

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 14-6 this season

• Vancouver Canucks- Puck line is 15-6 this season

⚡️ Lightning stun Hurricanes with eight goal performance. The Tampa Bay Lightning showcased an extraordinary offensive display in their game against the Carolina Hurricanes, securing an 8-2 victory by scoring eight goals on a mere 14 shots. This historic achievement marked the first instance in NHL history where a team managed to score at least eight goals on such a limited number of shots since official shot tracking began in 1955-56. Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov led the way for Tampa Bay, with Point netting hat trick and Kucherov tallying six points.

💪 Red Wings hand Bruins first home regulation loss. Alex DeBrincat and J.T. Compher contributed a goal and an assist each as the Detroit Red Wings secured a 5-2 victory against the NHL-leading Boston Bruins. This win marked their second triumph over the Bruins this season, making them the sole team to beat Boston (14-2-3) in regulation. Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin, and David Perron also found the net for the Red Wings, taking advantage of six Boston penalties and maintaining a strong record of 10-0-2 when scoring four or more goals.