In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-6

Over/Under Predictions: 7-7-1

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

14 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups can be found below.

Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

Model Predicts- Giants ML, OVER 8, Athletics +1.5

The Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants will wrap up their short two-game series on Wednesday, with first pitch scheduled for 9:45 PM Eastern.

Oakland got the best of San Francisco in Game 1 of this series, taking home the win by a score of 5-2. That win was the fourth in the last five games for the Athletics, while the loss snapped a four-game win streak for the Giants.

Sportsbooks make the Giants a sizable -220 favorite tonight, but our model projects this game to be much closer. Let’s dive into why that is.

Oakland Athletics

• Took home Game 1 of series on Tuesday

  • Won Game 5-2. Held Giants scoreless through seven innings

  • All five runs came via the home run (3 solo, 1 two-run)

• Offense continues to be on of best in MLB at the moment

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (145), 13th in BABIP (.303), and 4th in OPS (.861) since July 19th

  • Have hit 20 home runs and scored 64 runs in that time- both top-five in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Ross Stripling

  • Due for positive regression- 6.02 ERA vs 4.17 xERA

  • Ranks in top 10% of MLB in walk rate (5.1%) and barrel rate (4.5%)

San Francisco Giants

• Have won four of last five games

  • All four wins vs Rockies. Loss came to Athletics

  • +13 run differential in that span

• Hitting well since July 19th (end of All-Star break), but doing much worse vs right-handed pitchers

  • Against righties- 103 wRC+, .290 BABIP, and .701 OPS

  • Against lefties- 141 wRC+, .360 BABIP, .859 OPS

• Starting pitcher- Logan Webb

  • Due for regression- 3.72 ERA vs 4.35 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 2% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (48.4%)

What’s the Play?

The reason the Giants are such large favorites is due to Logan Webb being on the mound, which is normally reasonable. However, we agree with our model that the Athletics can keep this game close.

Stripling has been lit up this season, but several metrics work in his favor here. The 1.85-run variance between his real ERA and xERA shows that he has oftentimes been unlucky on the mound this season, and as a result we should expect that gap to begin to close in the near future. Today is likely a game in which that trends occurs, as the Giants have done a majority of their damage against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break, but Stripling is right-handed, giving him a plus matchup.

Meanwhile, the opposite is due to occur for Logan Webb, as metrics show he has over-performed. That is largely due to his inability to avoid hard contact this season, a flaw that a red-hot A’s offense has proven it can take advantage of.

It’s a surprise to say, but the A’s have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last two weeks, and we feel the Giants are too large of a favorite here. As a result, we’ll back Oakland on the run line.

The Play: Athletics +1.5 (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 65-42 overall this season, 38-20 as the home team

• Minnesota twins- 58-48 overall this season, 29-27 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 59-40-9 this season, 26-20-5 as a home favorite

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 57-43-7 this season, 30-16-5 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 60-48 this season, 27-26 as a favorite

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 60-48 this season, 31-20 as a road underdog

🐯 Tigers trade Jack Flaherty to Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired pitcher Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney. Flaherty, who signed a one-year deal with Detroit and had an impressive season with a 2.95 ERA, is expected to strengthen the Dodgers' injury-affected rotation as their No. 2 starter. Liranzo and Sweeney, ranked as top prospects for the Dodgers, join the Tigers' system, adding depth to their catching and infield positions.

🔄 Padres trade for Tanner Scott in deal that involves six players. The San Diego Padres traded for All-Star reliever Tanner Scott and right-hander Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins, sending left-hander Robby Snelling, right-hander Adam Mazur, and infielders Graham Pauley and Jay Beshears in return. Scott has been dominant in the ninth inning with a 1.19 ERA and 18 saves, and he joins a Padres bullpen that needs reinforcement. Hoeing, a reliable option against left-handed hitters, and the prospects from San Diego, including Mazur and Snelling, bring potential to the Marlins' roster.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- As of the 2023 inductions, 271 former MLB players are in the Hall of Fame. Which team currently has the most players in the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Question #2- Three teams from the NFC and AFC qualify for a wild card spot in the postseason, giving them a chance to win the Super Bowl despite failing to win their division. Only seven wild card teams have ever won the Super Bowl, but what team was the first?

Question #3- Six players in NBA history have led their team in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks during the regular season. Who was the most recent player to lead his team in all categories?

Anyone know what has happened on July 31st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 31st…

1987- Baltimore Orioles third baseman Eddie Murray hits his 299th and 300th career home runs in an 8-4 win over the Texas Rangers. Murray’s homers came in the top of the first and ninth innings, both of which were two-run shots that helped Baltimore open and close the game. Murray would end his career with 504 home runs, the 28th most in MLB history, which he hit as a member of the Dodgers, Mets, Indians, and Angeles organizations in addition to the Orioles.

1990- Texas Rangers pitcher Nolan Ryan records his 300th career victory in an 11-3 blowout win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Ryan pitched a stellar 7.2 innings in what would become his 11th victory of the season, allowing six hits, three runs (one earned) and striking out eight batters along the way. Ryan became just the 20th pitcher in league history to reach the 300 win milestone, and he currently ranks 14th on the MLB’s all-time wins list with 324.

2012- American swimmer Michael Phelps becomes the greatest medal winner in Olympic history, winning his 19th career medal as a member of the winning American 4 × 200m freestyle relay. The win also gave Phelps his 15th gold medal. The swimmer would end his Olympic career, which began in 2004 at the age of 19, with 28 medals in all (23 gold), 10 more medals than any other Olympian.

1. New York Yankees

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Nikola Jokic