Going Back to the Ice

One Best Bet Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NHL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 4-3

Over/Under Predictions: 4-3

Spread Predictions: 1-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

NHL🏒

Toronto Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

Three NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.

Featured Matchup🎰

Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Model Predicts- Maple Leafs ML, OVER 6.5, Stars +1.5

The Dallas Stars will continue their three-game road trip on Wednesday, with the next stop coming in Toronto, Canada to take on the Maple Leafs.

Dallas’ road trip got off to a great start last night, taking down the Buffalo Sabres by a score of 2-1. The win was the fourth consecutive victory for the Stars, who now own a 31-13-6 record, while Toronto recently lost to the Islanders on Monday for its sixth loss in the last ten games.

Dallas is by far the hotter teams entering this matchup, but our model believes the Maple Leafs can get back in the win column here. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Dallas Stars
  • 4-0 in last four games

    • Wins over Red Wings, Ducks, Capitals, and Sabres

    • Won all four games by just one goal

  • Due to see regression on both ends of ice

    • 3.26 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations in last 4 games, but xGF/60 sits at 3.05

    • Own 1.48 GA/60 in 5-on-5 during win streak, but have allowed opponents to score on 50% of power play chances

  • Expected goalie- Scott Wedgewood

    • .914 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 83rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -7.4

Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Most recent loss was to Islanders, but still playing decent hockey recently

    • 4-2-0 record in last six games. +2 goal differential in that stretch

  • Offense due to see more pucks find the back of the net

    • Last six games- 1.62 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations vs 2.41 xGF/60

    • Generating 11.37 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) in 5-on-5 in those games

  • Expected goalie- Ilya Samsonov

    • .893 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 89th in GSAx (-10.5)

What’s the Play?

It’s hard to bet against Dallas at the moment, but we agree with our model that Toronto can win tonight’s battle.

Dallas has been caught in several close games as of late, winning by just one goal in each of its last four games. Defense and shaky goaltending have bee the largest factors for that, as Dallas has surrendered three or more goals in three of four games, with many coming on the power play.

Samsonov has been unreliable in net all season for Toronto, but Wedgewood has been far from great and will have a defense in front of him that is on a short turnaround after last night’s game against Buffalo. We’ll back the Maple Leafs here.

The Play: Maple Leafs ML (-135)

Relevant Betting Trends

  • New York Rangers- 31-16-3 this season, 16-7-0 as the home team

  • Toronto Maple Leafs- 25-15-8 this season, 11-10-2 as the home team

  • Dallas Stars- Over is 31-18-1 this season with average total of 6.74

  • Minnesota Wild- Over is 24-21-4 this season with average total of 6.42

  • Tampa Bay Lightning- Puck line is 26-24 this season

News Around the League

💪 Vegas snaps Edmonton’s 16-game win streak. The Vegas Golden Knights ended the Edmonton Oilers' 16-game winning streak with a 3-1 victory on Tuesday night. Edmonton's streak narrowly missed tying the NHL record set by the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins, with the 2016-17 Columbus Blue Jackets being the only other team to achieve 16 consecutive wins. Despite a strong start from the Oilers, including a shorthanded goal by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, Vegas rallied with goals from Nicolas Roy and Chandler Stephenson, ultimately sealing the win with William Karlsson's empty-netter.

🐧 Jarry, Penguins shutout Jets at home. Tristan Jarry registered his league-leading sixth shutout of the season, stopping 24 shots as the Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the struggling Winnipeg Jets 3-0 on Tuesday. Goals from Bryan Rust, Jeff Carter, and Kris Letang secured the win for the Penguins, with Jarry maintaining his perfect record against Winnipeg at 5-0 and securing his 19th career shutout. Despite a strong effort from the Jets, particularly from goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who made 24 saves, Winnipeg suffered their fourth consecutive loss due to offensive struggles.

Trivia Section🧠

Former Philadelphia 76ers star Allen Iverson (Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What left-handed pitcher was selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 2007 MLB Draft?

Question #2- Patrick Ewing, Allen Iverson, and Otto Porter Jr. each played basketball at what university?

Question #3- Two NFL teams have finished with an 0-16 record since 2008. Who are they?

On This Day in History🗓

Rob Gronkowski and Tom Brady celebrate winning Super Bowl LV (NBC Sports)

Anyone know what has happened on February 7th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On February 7th…

1976- Toronto Maple Leafs star Darryl Sittler records ten points in a 11-4 win over the Boston Bruins. Sittler tallied an incredible six goals to go along with four assists in the game, setting a new NHL record for points in a single game. That record still holds to this day, with plenty of other players reaching the eight point mark.

2021- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV. Tampa Bay scored 31 points to Kansas City’s 9, holding the Chiefs without a touchdown for the entirety of the game. Tom Brady, who was in his first season with the Buccaneers and threw for 201 yards and three touchdowns, was named MVP.

2023- LeBron James scores 38 points in a 133-130 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The performance enabled James to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s mark of 38,837 points, making him the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. James has now scored 39,797 points in his career.

Trivia Answers

  1. David Price

  2. Georgetown University

  3. Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns