In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 9-6

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 7, Mariners +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners will wrap up a four-game series on Thursday, with the first pitch scheduled to take place at 4:10 PM Eastern.

Baltimore has dominated this series thus far, winning each of the first two contests by at least two runs. Those victories bring Baltimore’s season record to 55-31, while the losses now make Seattle 47-41 on the season.

Seattle is in a winning drought at the moment, and our model doesn’t expect the Mariners to get out of it today. Let’s dive into why that is.

Baltimore Orioles

• Perfect 2-0 in series vs Mariners

  • Outscored Seattle 2-0 in Game 1 and 4-1 in Game 2

  • Have now won six of last seven games

• Offense is big reason for recent wins

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (117) and 9th in OPS (.764) in last seven games

  • Making tons of contact- Own 17.9% strikeout rate in those same seven matchups

• Starting pitcher- Corbin Burnes

  • Due for slight regression, not not enough to cause damage- 2.28 ERA vs 2.96 xERA

  • Ranks in top 20% of MLB in Ground Ball rate (49.7%) and Hard Hit rate (31.7%)

Seattle Mariners

• Enter today on four-game losing streak

  • Two losses to Twins, two losses to Orioles

  • -11 run differential in that span

• Offense has been non existent over last four games

  • Rank 30th in wRC+ (51), 23rd in BABIP (.260), and 30th in OPS (.500)

  • Have been held to one run or less in three of last four games

• Starting pitcher- Bryce Miller

  • Due for minor regression- 3.88 ERA vs 4.21 xERA

  • Struggles with fly balls- 37.8% Ground Ball rate ranks in bottom 26% of MLB

What’s the Play?

The Orioles currently sit at -150 favorites on most sportsbooks, which could be pricey to some. However, our model has the Orioles priced around -170, showing that there is still plenty of value on Baltimore today.

Baltimore has a massive advantage on the mound and at the plate this afternoon. Bryce Miller’s vulnerability to the barrel and hard contact (43.1% Hard Hit rate) pose issues against most offenses, but it will be especially tough to keep the Orioles from taking advantage of those weaknesses as they have launched 61 home runs since June 1st, the most in the MLB. Baltimore has power all over its lineup, and the group is in a great spot to show it off today.

Burnes is due for some regression, but his sub-3 xERA indicates that he is still dominant on the mound, which should continue today against a weak Mariners offense. We’ll take Baltimore here.

The Play: Orioles ML (-150)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 57-29 overall this season, 24-15 as the away team, and 3-0 in last three games

• Baltimore Orioles- 55-31 overall this season, 26-14 as the away team, and 6-1 in last seven games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 48-36-3 this season, 26-14-2 as the away team

• Oakland Athletics- Under is 47-38-3 this season, 22-20-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 47-37 this season, 17-16 as a home favorite

⭐️ MLB announces All-Star Game starters. Major League Baseball announced the starters for the 2024 All-Star Game following the final round of fan voting, which can be viewed here. Notable starters include Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper, who secured their spots by leading in fan votes. The All-Star Game will be held on July 16 at Globe Life Field, with pitchers and reserves set to be announced on Sunday.

🔄 Rays trade Aaron Civale to Brewers. The Milwaukee Brewers acquired pitcher Aaron Civale from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for minor-league infielder Gregory Barrios. Civale aims to strengthen a Brewers rotation plagued by injuries, including key players like Robert Gasser and Brandon Woodruff. Civale has struggled this season, posting a 2-6 record with a 5.07 ERA, and will be replaced in Tampa Bay's rotation by Shane Baz, who is returning from Tommy John surgery.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Green Bay Packers defeated what team in the 2010-11 Super Bowl (XLV)?

Question #2- Former NBA player Richard Jefferson played for eight different teams in his career, which spanned from 2001-2018. Which team did he begin his NBA career on?

Question #3- Alex Rodriguez and what other player led the MLB in home runs during the 2003 season, each hitting 47?

Anyone know what has happened on July 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 4th…

1960- New York Yankees star Mickey Mantle hits a three-run home run in the first inning of a 9-8 loss to the Washington Senators. The homer gave Mantle 300 for his career, making him the 18th player in MLB history to reach the milestone. Mantle would end his career with 536 home runs, which ranks him 18th on the all-time list.

1984- New York Yankees pitcher Phil Niekro strikes out Texas Rangers player Larry Parish in a regular season game. The strikeout was a massive one for Niekro, as it made him just the ninth pitcher in MLB history to reach 3,000 strikeouts. Niekro would end his career with 3,342 strikeouts, which currently ranks 13th on the MLB’s all-time list.

2009- Former NFL quarterback Steve McNair passes away at the age of 36. McNair’s death was deemed to be a murder-suicide, one in which he was shot and killed by a romantic partner. McNair played in the NFL from 1995-2007 prior to his death, earning three Pro Bowl nods and one MVP award during his career.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. New Jersey Nets

3. Jim Thome