In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 5-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-3

Run Line Predictions: 7-3

3-star Predictions: 1-0

There is one NBA scheduled to take place today, with that being Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Miami opened up the series with a 3-0 lead, but Boston has stormed back and won three straight games. Our model likes the Celtics to complete the comeback and win Game 7 tonight.

There are no 3-star plays in the NBA today.

This series is a mess. From down 3-0 to tied 3-3, the Boston Celtics have proven to not have any quit and have every ounce of momentum on their side.

Boston’s money line at -295 is far too steep of a price to bet on in our opinion, and our model likes the Celtics to barely cover the spread here, projecting Boston to beat the Heat by roughly eight points. Boston is 1-2 at home in the ECF with a point differential of +/- 0, losing Games 1 and 2 by a combined 13 points and then beating Miami in Game 5 by 13. That complicates things even further.

Additionally, books have recently lowered the total to 203.5 for tonight’s matchup, a steep drop from the average over/under closing total of 213.5 in Games 1 through 6. The average point total in the series sits at 219, so the data shows that the current number available on many sportsbooks isn’t necessarily based on data, but solely on narrative.

What is that narrative? That Game 7’s are low scoring affairs. Since the 2002-2003 season Game 7 unders in the NBA are 41-24, which explains why the books feel comfortable with such a low total. We saw the same thing in the Eastern Conference semifinals between Philadelphia and Boston, where 200 points were scored and the closing total was 201.5 for Game 7. The average point total in Games 1 through 6 of that series was 214.7.

As you all know, we bet based on the data, which points towards Boston covering the spread, and that includes us factoring in Malcolm Brogdon being unavailable even though he is currently questionable. We’d feel more comfortable going with Celtics -7.5 than the over in this spot, but we consider both predictions to be a lean and will not be making either a 3-star play.

Money Line Trends💰

• Miami Heat- 11-6 overall in postseason, 5-4 as the away team

• Boston Celtics- 11-8 overall in postseason, 5-5 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Miami Heat- Over is 11-6 overall in postseason, 7-2 as the away team with average total of 229.22

• Boston Celtics- Over is 11-8 overall in postseason, 5-5 as the home team with average total of 219.4

Spread Trends➕➖

• Miami Heat- 12-5 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 6-3 ATS as the away team

• Boston Celtics- 10-9 ATS in postseason, 5-5 ATS as the home team

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics

• Miami Heat

  • Gabe Vincent (Game Time Decision), Tyler Herro (OUT), Victor Oladipo (OUT)

• Boston Celtics

  • Malcolm Brogdon (Game Time Decision), Danilo Gallinari (OUT)

🔥 Burner accounts are back in the NBA headlines. The NBA has had its fair share of burner account saga’s in this age of social media, but we can’t recall a time where an NBA referee was at the middle of the controversy. The NBA announced that it has opened an investigation into referee Eric Lewis, who is accused of using Twitter accounts to defend himself and other NBA referees. On the surface it doesn’t appear to be a huge deal, but NBA referees are forbidden from commenting publicly about officiating. Lewis has been a ref in the NBA for 19 years, but this investigation has put him in the crosshairs of scrutiny from media and NBA players.

There is one NHL game scheduled to take place this evening, with that matchup being Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and the Dallas Stars. Vegas jumped out to an early 3-0 series lead, but Dallas has stormed back with two straight victories.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Vegas Golden Knights- 11-5 overall in postseason, 5-2 as the away team

• Dallas Stars- 10-8 overall in postseason, 6-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 9-7 overall in postseason, 3-4 as the away team

• Dallas Stars- Over is 10-8 overall in postseason, 4-5 as the home team

Puck Line Trends➕➖

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 10-6 overall in postseason, 6-1 as the away team

• Dallas Stars- Puck line is 9-9 overall in postseason, 5-4 as the home team

Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (OUT)

• Dallas Stars

  • Evgenii Dadonov (Day-to-Day)

🥇 The U.S. suffers another overtime loss at the World Championships, Canada wins gold. The United States lost to Germany in overtime on Saturday, and another gut-wrenching loss took place on Sunday against Latvia. Regulation ended tied at 3-3, but just over a minute into OT Latvia scored the game-winner to win the bronze medal. Canada beat Germany 5-2 in the gold medal match, giving the country its 28th World Championship gold medal. The win broke a tie with Russia for the most gold medals in tournament history.

🥊 Bruce Cassidy took some jabs at the Coyotes over the weekend. Golden Knights head coach Bruce Cassidy wasn’t too happy about Vegas’ Game 5 loss to Dallas, citing turnovers as the biggest reason for the loss. He then went on to throw a small jab at the Arizona Coyotes, later stating, “I’m not sure you’re beating the Arizona Coyotes in January with 24 giveaways”. It was a bit of a low blow towards one of the worst teams in the NHL, but Cassidy certainly has a point that many people likely don’t disagree with.

Memorial Day is always a day loaded with baseball, and today is no exception. 11 games are scheduled to take place through this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 1:05 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for seven of today’s matchups.

New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners

Model Predicts- Mariners ML, Under 8, Yankees +1.5

The New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners will kick off a three-game series on Monday night in Seattle.

New York enters today with a stellar 32-23 record and on a two-game win streak. Surprisingly though, that record is only good enough for third in the AL East behind the Orioles and Rays.

Seattle also enters today in third in its division, the AL West, with a 28-25 record.

Both New York and Seattle have been in the win column often in recent weeks, but our model gives the Mariners a slight edge at home on Monday. Will we see Seattle take care of business and win its seventh game in the last eight, or will New York prove the model wrong and extend its win streak to three?

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have played great baseball this season, but the Yanks have been rather average when it comes to their performance at the plate.

Per Statmuse, the Yanks enter today’s matchup with a .724 OPS, good enough for 16th in the MLB. New York tends to fare better against left-handed pitchers, with its OPS rising slightly to .730 compared to .722 against righties, but overall this team doesn’t pose a huge threat at the plate on a consistent enough basis.

We have seen some of those offensive struggles creep up in the Yankees last week. New York scored 10 runs yesterday against San Diego, but prior to that scored just five runs in the span of three games. Two of those performances came against some hitter-friendly pitchers in Kyle Gibson and Joe Musgrove, further displaying New York’s offensive shortcomings.

However, New York’s pitching is amongst the league’s best, making them a threat regardless of their performance at the plate. According to TeamRankings, New York ranks seventh in Team ERA (3.76) this season, and Baseball Savant lists New York in the top 3% of the MLB in xBA (.236).

Domingo Germán (2-3 record, 3.75 ERA), who is back after serving a 10-game suspension, will be tasked with providing New York with consistent stability on the mound this evening. Germán has been solid on the mound this season, posting a strikeout rate (26.1%) and walk rate (8.0%) that are both better than the MLB average. His 9.8% Barrel rate is a mild concern though, showing that opposing hitters can size him up.

Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller (3-1 record, 1.15 ERA) has been one of the league’s best on the mound this season, and he will get the start tonight for Seattle.

The 24-year-old has an arsenal of pitches that is rather standard for an MLB pitcher, a 4-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. However, Miller’s fastball has proven to be one of the best pitches in the MLB, a huge reason why his ERA and WHIP (0.51) are so low even across a decent sample size of innings (31.1).

Miller’s fastball comes in at an average speed of 95.1 mph, resulting in a Whiff rate of 24.9% and .169 xBA, per Baseball Savant. Despite throwing it on more than 70% of his pitches, opposing hitters can’t seem to get bats on it even though they are likely sitting on it the entire way.

Miller also has tremendous control of his arsenal, something not often seen by many rookies. His 2.7% walk rate puts him in the top 2% of the MLB, evidence that he his finding the strike zone consistently and putting hitters away despite not making them swing and miss often on pitches that aren’t his fastball.

There is some predictability to Miller, but until teams adjust to his fastball he is going to be a beast on the mound.

What’s the Play?

Bryce Miller gives any game a chance to be low scoring, and as a result we agree with our model that the under in this matchup is a 3-star play.

Germán could face some trouble as he tries to knock off the rust following his suspension, but Seattle isn’t a strong offensive team. The Mariners own a .707 OPS against right-handed pitchers, which Germán is, putting them near the basement of the MLB.

The offenses are average at best, but the starting pitching and bullpens of both squads are amongst the elite in the MLB. We agree with our model that we will see a low scoring contest tonight.

3-star play: Under 8 (-115)

Money Line Trends💰

• Texas Rangers- 33-19 overall, 12-6 when coming off a loss

• Pittsburgh Pirates- 26-26 overall, 14-13 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- 28-25 overall, 16-13 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 27-25-1 overall, 5-0 when Bryce Miller is the starting pitcher

• New York Yankees- Under is 29-25-1 overall, 11-11-1 as the away team

• Chicago White Sox- Over is 27-25-3 overall, 13-11-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Detroit Tigers- Run line is 28-23 overall, 13-11 as the home team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

💪 Liam Hendriks beats cancer, activated off IL. Chicago White Sox closer Liam Hendricks is expected to be activated off the IL for Monday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels. Hendricks was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in January, putting his MLB career on hold. However, Hendricks announced in April that he was cancer free, putting the three-time All-Star’s career back in full swing.

⚾️ Mike Soroka set to start first game in nearly three years against Oakland. The Atlanta Braves will kickoff their series against the Oakland Athletics tonight, and Mike Soroka is slated to be the starting pitcher. Soroka has not pitched in an MLB game since August of 2020 due to injuries, but was an All-Star as a rookie in 2019 when he went 13-4 overall with a 2.68 ERA.

⁉️ Could the Raiders release Jimmy Garoppolo? The Las Vegas Raiders signed former Patriots and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72.75 million contract in March, but it possible that Garoppolo doesn’t see a penny. Per Dov Kleiman, Garoppolo’s contract contains an injury waiver clause, allowing the Raiders to release Garoppolo if he fails a physical because of his nagging foot injury. Well, Garoppolo did fail a physical and was forced to undergo surgery, and if he fails another before the season starts then Las Vegas can remove him from the roster at no cost.

🦬 The Deion Sanders effect is in full swing at Colorado. Normally the spring football game is a time for fans to knock off the rust on the grills and kegs, but at the University of Colorado it was a time to see what new head coach Deion Sanders is bringing to the table. According to Brian Howell the game was reportedly profitable for the university, generating a profit of more than $200,000 from ticket sales and $123,000 from merchandise sales. Colorado finished last season an atrocious 1-11 overall and 1-8 against Pac 12 opponents, but the hiring of Sanders has brought new life to the fan base.

🏆 Emiliano Grillo wins the Charles Schwab Challenge. It took a final round of 68 and a playoff to do so, but Emiliano Grillo stormed back on Sunday afternoon to claim the top spot at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas. Grillo faced plenty of adversity down the stretch, hitting his ball into a stream on the 18th hole and having to wait five minutes for it to stop. That mishap put Schenk back in the running, but Grillo prevailed in the two-hole playoff to grab his first PGA victory since 2015. His odds to win prior to the tournament were +10000.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. The Heisman Trophy is the most prestigious individual award in college football, given to the player that is deemed to be the best player in the NCAA. Normally it is given to a quarterback or running back, but three wide receivers have won the award in its existence. Tim Brown (1987) and Desmond Howard (1991) were the first wideouts to win the award, but who was the third?

2. The MLB has seen several no-hitters thrown over the years, but only two have come in the World Series. The most recent one was in 2022, when the Houston Astros pitching staff threw a combined no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies, but only one pitcher has managed to throw a solo no-hitter on baseball’s biggest stage, and it was a perfect game. Who was that pitcher?

3. Mike Tyson is one of the greatest boxers of all-time, posting a 50-6 record and 44 knockouts in his career. One of his fights became known as “The Bite Fight”, a bout in which Tyson bit off his opponent’s ear. Who was the boxer that was in the ring with Tyson for that fight?

Anyone know what has happened on May 29th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially for the Philadelphia Phillies.

On May 29th…

1938- NBA legend Jerry West is born in Chelyan, West Virginia. West played his entire career for the Los Angeles Lakers, winning an NBA title in 1972. West also became the only player in NBA history to win a Finals MVP despite being on the losing team, winning the award in its first year (1969) in a Finals loss to the Boston Celtics.

1980- The NBA crowns Larry Bird as the Rookie of the Year, besting Magic Johnson for the award. The award was the first of many for Bird, as he would also go on to win three MVP’s (1984, 1985, 1986), two NBA Finals MVP’s (1984, 1986), and even an All-Star Game MVP. Magic Johnson went on to have a pretty good career as well, but Bird had the edge in year one of their Hall of Fame careers.

1989- Philadelphia Phillies and MLB legend Mike Schmidt retires from baseball at the age of 39. Schmidt played his entire career for the Phillies from 1972-1989, becoming a three-time MVP (1980, 1981, 1986), 12-time All-Star, and a World Series Champion and MVP in 1980. Schmidt was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1995.

2010- Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay becomes the 20th pitcher in MLB history to throw a perfect game, doing so in a 1-0 victory over the Florida Marlins. Halladay became the tenth Phillies pitcher to throw a no-hitter, striking out 11 of the 27 batters he faced that night. He also became the second pitcher to throw a perfect game in 2010, joining Oakland Athletics pitcher Dallas Braden.

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1. DeVonta Smith (2020)

2. Don Larsen

3. Evander Holyfield