Happy Thanksgiving

One Best Bet Today

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NFL Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model’s performed below.

NBA Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 8-4-2

Spread Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 0-1

NHL Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 9-5

Over/Under Predictions: 5-9

Puck Line Predictions: 7-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

NFL🏈

San Francisco 49ers star Nick Bosa (Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

Three NFL games are scheduled to take place today, with the first game kicking off at 12:30 PM Eastern. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups are below.

Featured Matchup🎰

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Model Predicts- 49ers ML, UNDER 44, Seahawks +7

The San Francisco 49ers will make their way to Seattle, Washington to take on the Seahawks on Thanksgiving Day.

San Francisco enters today’s matchup with a 7-3 record, recently picking up a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. Seattle has strung together a solid season as well and isn’t far behind the 49ers in the standings, entering today at 6-4.

This will be the first meeting of the season between these two NFC West rivals, and our model likes the 49ers to walk away victorious. Let’s take a look at why that is.

San Francisco 49ers
  • Back on track after three consecutive losses

    • Lost to Browns, Vikings, and Bengals in Weeks 6-8

    • Rebounded with wins over Jaguars and Buccaneers last two weeks

      • +44 points differential in those two matchups

  • Healthy again on offense

    • Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel no longer on injury report

  • Defense is great, but has some flaws

    • Rank 28th in EPA/rush, 22nd in opponent rush success rate

    • Injuries- Javon Hargrave is questionable, Talanoa Hufanga is out

Seattle Seahawks
  • Injuries to several key players

    • Kenneth Walker is out, Geno Smith questionable

  • Injuries won’t help offense that has had trouble scoring

    • 7.7 points per game in second halves over last three weeks. Held to three points or less in two games

    • Struggling to find endzone- scored a touchdown on just 40.00% of red zone drives in last three weeks

  • Defense is average by many metrics

    • Rank 14th in yards per play, 17th in EPA/play, and 16th in opponent success rate

What’s the Play?

The spread for tonight’s matchup sits at 7.5, a number we’d feel comfortable taking is Smith was healthy. However, with Smith’s status in question, we’ll roll with the under here.

San Francisco can be exposed on the ground, but that will be a tough task with Kenneth Walker sidelined. Rookie Zach Charbonnet, who averages 4.9 yards per attempt, will take the bulk of the carries, and although he has been efficient, a negative game script could limit his opportunities on the ground.

Seattle has already struggled to score many touchdowns, and things won’t get easier with Smith either sidelined or less than 100%. We’ll take the under in this spot.

The Play: Under 44 (-110)

Relevant Betting Trends

Money Line Trends 💰
  • Detroit Lions- 8-2 overall this season, 4-1 as the home team

  • San Francisco 49ers- 7-3 overall this season, 2-0 against division opponents (Play NFC West rival Seattle today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️
  • Seattle Seahawks- Under is 6-4 this season, 3-0 against division opponents

Spread Trends ➕➖
  • Washington Commanders- 5-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog

  • Seattle Seahawks- 5-4-1 ATS this season, 2-2-1 ATS as the home team

News Around the League

🤕 Packers send Musgrave, Wilson to IR. The Green Bay Packers have placed tight end Luke Musgrave and running back Emmanuel Wilson on injured reserve, sidelining them for at least the next four games; Wilson exited the last game against the Los Angeles Chargers due to a shoulder injury, while Musgrave finished the game but was later diagnosed with a lacerated kidney. To fill their spots, the Packers activated James Robinson from the practice squad along with receiver Bo Melton to the main roster.

😬 Kareem Jackson’s suspension upheld by NFL. Denver Broncos safety Kareem Jackson's four-game suspension, resulting from his hit on Minnesota Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs, was upheld on Tuesday. The suspension resulted from Jackson's hit on Dobbs early in Sunday's game, where Jackson lowered his helmet during a play resulting in a fumble by Dobbs. Consequently, Jackson will be sidelined for games against the Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Detroit Lions, becoming eligible to return for a Christmas Eve matchup against the New England Patriots in Week 16.

Trivia Section🧠

Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What school has won the most NCAA Football national championships since 2000?

Question #2- Who is the NBA’s all-time assists leader?

Question #3- Indiana Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle played for two colleges before his time as an NBA player. Can you name both schools?

On This Day in History🗓

Former BY quarterback Ty Detmer (Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on November 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 23rd….

1965- USC running back Mike Garrett wins the Heisman Trophy. Garrett was the 31st Heisman Trophy winner and first USC' school history, a result of rushing for 1,440 yards and 17 touchdowns in his senior season. He would end his collegiate career with over 4,500 all-purpose yards and 30 touchdowns, stats deemed good enough to be a second round pick in the 1966 NFL Draft.

1991- BYU quarterback Ty Detmer finishes the season with 4,031 passing yards. The yardage total was a new NCAA record, and gave Detmer 15,031 passing yards for his career. He would go on to be selected with the 230th pick in the 1992 NFL Draft, and played for six different teams throughout his NFL career.

1991- The Sacramento Kings snapped a record-breaking 43-game road losing streak by defeating the Orlando Magic 95-93. Orlando had several chances to tie the game late, but turnovers by Dennis Scott and Nick Anderson prevented them from attempting a potential game-tying shot. Prior to this win, the Kings’ last road win came back November 20, 1990, a victory over the Washington Bullets.

Trivia Answers

  1. University of Alabama

  2. John Stockton

  3. University of Maine, University of Virginia