Happy Tuesday. Let's Keep Fading the Oakland A's

Model Predictions and a Whole Lot More

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA News

  • NHL News

  • MLB Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • What Else is Cooking?

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB. You can see how each of the models performed below.

NHL Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-1

3-star Predictions: 0-0

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 5-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-3-1

Run Line Predictions: 3-3

3-star Predictions: 0-0

NBA🏀

LeBron James and Kyrie irving (Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports)

👀 The LeBron James rumors are already swirling. Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James was believed to be considering retirement after a Western Conference Finals loss to the Denver Nuggets a few weeks ago. However, that rumor has already been replaced with a new one, with the new headline being James joining Kyrie Irving on the Dallas Mavericks. Shams Charania of The Athletic reported that Irving reached out to James about joining him in Dallas, with the hopes of making a Big 3 that includes James, Irving, and Luka Doncic. Any trade that sends LeBron to Dallas seems unlikely, but Irving is a free-agent this offseason so a reunion between the former teammates isn’t out of the question.

🔄 Coaching staffs all over the league are being reworked. Several head coaches were fired since the postseason began, and as a result we are starting to see their assistants change paths as well. It is being reported that former Houston Rockets head coach Stephen Silas will join Monty Williams in Detroit to coach the Pistons, 76ers assistant Sam Cassell will join Joe Mazzulla and the Boston Celtics, and David Fizdale will head to Phoenix to coach the Suns under Frank Vogel. All three have plenty of NBA coaching experience, giving each coaching staff an added layer of depth during a time when coaches are being tossed out left and right.

NHL🏒

Jonathan Marchessault (NHL.com)

🥊 Vegas crushes Florida, takes 2-0 series lead. The Vegas Golden Knights put an end to the Florida Panthers hot streak to begin the Stanley Cup Final, most recently defeating the Panthers 7-2 in Game 2 to go up 2-0 in the series. Vegas was out-shot 31-28 by Florida, but Adin Hill’s .935 Save % was the difference maker in the matchup. Meanwhile, Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been a brick wall in net for Florida in the postseason, was pulled after allowing four goals on 13 shot attempts. The series will now be headed back to Florida for Games 3 and 4, which are scheduled to take place this Thursday and Saturday.

🦆 Anaheim finds its new coach. The Anaheim Ducks finished the regular season with only 23 wins, the fewest in the NHL. That caused the Ducks to make some changes on the leadership front, which included parting ways with head coach Dallas Eakins in April after he failed to take Anaheim to the postseason in his four years with the team. Anaheim then announced on Monday that it will replace Eakins with Greg Cronin, who has spent the past five seasons as a head coach in the AHL for the Colorado Eagles. Cronin does not have any head coaching experience at the NHL level, but has spent more than a decade as an assistant with the Islanders and Maple Leafs. On the surface it appears to be a bold hire, but when you’re stuck in the basement of the league like Anaheim, being bold can’t make things worse.

💰 Cole Caufield gets PAID. The Montreal Canadiens backed up the BRINKS truck for star forward Cole Caufield on Monday, signing him to an 8-year, $62.8 million extension. The 22-year-old is now the second highest paid player on the team, joining Nick Suzuki at the top of the payroll. Caufield was drafted 15th overall in 2019 after a stellar collegiate career at the University of Wisconsin and has tallied 53 goals and 31 assists in 123 career games.

MLB⚾️

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller (John Minchillo/Associated Press)

Today’s Model Predictions

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place all through Tuesday night. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

Three-Star Plays⭐️⭐️⭐️

Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Model Predicts- Pirates ML, OVER 8.5, Pirates -1.5

The Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates will play the second game of a three-game series on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh.

Oakland has had an abysmal season up to this point, entering today’s matchup with a 12-50 record and 28.5 games back of the Texas Rangers in the AL West. However, Oakland did have the lead for a majority of the game against the Pirates last night, showing that this matchup may be closer than we think.

However, the Pirates have a significant advantage on the mound this evening, forcing our model to lean heavily towards the Pirates. Will we see Pittsburgh back up that prediction after struggling for most of last night’s game, or can Oakland pull off the upset and get in the win column for the 13th time this season?

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics strung together a solid performance last night in Pittsburgh, putting up four runs on eight hits. Starting pitcher JP Sears had a solid outing as well, striking out six batters and allowing just one run and two hits across 4.2 innings.

However, things started to fall apart quickly once the bullpen came in, which has happened far too often in 2023 for the league’s worst team.

According to Fangraphs, Oakland’s bullpen is by far the worst in the majors, entering today with a 6.22 ERA. That is last in the MLB by 1.30 runs, showing that Oakland’s reserves are often crushed in the late stages of the game.

We saw that happen in last night’s game against this Pirates team. Sears held Pittsburgh to just one run in the game, but four Oakland relievers combined to surrender four hits, five walks, and post a 8.78 ERA in 4.1 innings of work last evening.

James Kaprielian (0-6 record, 8.12 ERA) is going to be in charge of keeping that bullpen locked up, but nothing he has done this season suggests that will happen. Kaprielian owns a 1.81 WHIP through 37.2 innings, a number so high due to his 12.1% walk rate. That ranks in the bottom 15% of the MLB, per Baseball Savant. His xERA comes in at 5.58 compared to his actual 8.12 ERA, showing some positive regression may be on the horizon, but neither number is very encouraging.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates began the 2023 season with a 20-8 record. However, Pittsburgh went just 8-19 in the month of May, erasing all of the team’s early season dominance.

The calendar then flipped to June and all of a sudden the Pirates look like their old selves. Pittsburgh is a perfect 4-0 this month and owns a six-game win streak dating back to May 30th, posting a +11 run differential in that time.

The key for Pittsburgh’s resurgence has been its performance on the mound, holding its opponents to an average of 3.0 runs per game in the last six. Luckily for the Pirates, Mitch Keller (7-1 record, 3.25 ERA) will get the start tonight, putting Pittsburgh in a great position to extend its win streak to seven.

Keller’s 3.25 ERA is already stellar, but his 3.15 xERA suggests that he has been even better than what the surface-level numbers indicate. He’s been able to generate those splits due to a 30.4% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate, both of which rank Keller in the top 15% of the MLB in 2023, per Baseball Savant.

Keller does own a 10.4% Barrel rate, much higher than the league average of 6.8%. That is a small concern regardless of the matchup, however, his Average Exit Velocity Allowed of 86.4 mph and 31.3% Hard Hit rate show that opposing hitters aren’t often making hard contact with Keller on the mound.

What’s the Play?

Tonight’s matchup on the mound heavily favors Pittsburgh, and as a result we agree with our model that the Pirates run line (-1.5) is a 3-star play.

Keller has done everything right so far this season. He’s been hit around a bit in his most recent two starts, allowing 1o earned runs in 12.0 innings, but going up against Oakland provides him with a great bounce-back opportunity that we’re willing to take the risk on.

Even if Kaprielian puts together a similar performance to Sears, Oakland doesn’t have the strength in the back-half of the game to keep runners from crossing the plate. That often opens up the flood gates for runs, and we believe that one of the hotter teams in baseball can keep that trend going.

3-star play: Pirates -1.5 (-115)

Relevant Betting Trends

Money Line Trends💰

  • Tampa Bay Rays- 43-19 overall this season, 29-13 when coming off a win

  • Pittsburgh Pirates- 32-27 overall this season, winners of their last six games

  • Baltimore Orioles- 37-22 overall this season, 12-7 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

  • Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 30-26-4 this season, 12-11-2 as the home team

  • Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 35-24-3 this season, 21-10-1 as the home team

  • Oakland Athletics- Over is 32-26-4 this season, 18-11-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends➕➖

  • Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 35-25 overall this season, 12-10 as a home underdog

Injury Report

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

News Around the League

👎 Things go from bad to worse for Alek Manoah. Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah has not been anywhere close to the same pitcher that finished third in AL Cy Young voting last night. His struggles continued last night against Houston, allowing six runs on seven hits in the first inning. Manoah recorded just one out on 38 pitches before being pulled from the game, marking the fourth time in the his last five starts that he has failed to go more than 4.0 innings.

🤕 Rangers transfer deGrom to 60-day IL. The Texas Rangers made a massive splash in free agency when they signed Jacob deGrom, but it appears that the second best team in the American League will be without its ace for a little while longer. deGrom has been dealing with elbow inflammation for most of the season an has not pitched since April, but his transfer to the 60-day IL means the earliest he can be back in the rotation is June 28th. The two-time Cy Young winner posted a 2.67 ERA and 45 strikeouts in six starts with his new team before being put on the shelf.

🔥 Luis Arraez stays red hot at the plate. Luis Arraez is having himself quite the season for the Miami Marlins. After last night’s three-hit performance against the Kansas City Royals, Arraez has increased his batting average to an incredible .399, which leads the MLB in 2023. No one has batted .400 or better for an entire season since Ted Williams hit .406 in 1941, but after getting 10 hits in his last 13 at-bats, it appears that Arraez is putting himself in a position to do something that has not been done in 82 years.

What Else is Cooking🍳

Former Los Angeles Rams linebacker Leonard Floyd (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

🦬 A big day for the Buffalo Bills. Between building a Super Bowl contender and a new $1.5 billion stadium, the Buffalo Bills certainly have their hands full for the next several years. However, the Bills got one step closer to accomplishing both goals yesterday, breaking ground on its new stadium in Orchard Park, New York, right next door to its current stadium, and signing Leonard Floyd. The stadium is expected to be complete by the start of the 2026 season, and hopefully the signing of Floyd, who was released by the Los Angeles Rams in March, will help Buffalo win its first Super Bowl in franchise history.

😳 From Kansas City Chiefs superfan to Kansas City’s Most Wanted. ChiefsAholic is known by many around the Kansas City area for being the Chiefs’ biggest fan. However, he is now known for being one of the city’s most wanted criminals after failing to appear in court after robbing a bank in Tulsa, Oklahoma in December of 2022. ChiefsAholic can be seen wearing a gray wolf costume while at Chiefs games, but we have a feeling we won’t be seeing him wearing it any time soon while on the run.

🏆 Viktor Hovland wins Memorial Tournament. We’re a day late on this one, but Viktor Hovland earned his fourth PGA Tour victory of his career on Sunday after winning the Memorial Tournament in Ohio on Sunday. Hovland finished 72 holes seven-under par, but was forced to go head-to-head with Denny McCarthy in a one-hole playoff to secure the victory. It was not only Hovland’s first PGA Tour win since 2022, but also the first tournament he has won on U.S. soil. He is now ranked the No.5 golfer in the world.

Trivia Section🧠

MLB Hall of Famer cal Ripken (John G. Mabanglo/Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The 4,000 yard mark is just one of the many milestone’s that an NFL quarterback may chase during the regular season. However, reaching that mark is often a difficult task, with only nine quarterbacks crossing 4,000 passing yards in the 2022-23 season. The milestone has been so difficult for one franchise to achieve though, never having a quarterback break through the barrier. What is the only team in NFL history to never have a 4,000 yard passer?

Question #2- Injuries are a major part of sports, but MLB Hall of Famer Cal Ripken seemed to avoid them for a majority of his career. As a result, Ripken holds the MLB record for most consecutive games played. How many consecutive games did Ripken play?

Question #3- It’s often rare to see a pro sports player stick with one team for the entirety of his/her career. Just ask Chucky Brown, Tim Jackson, Tony Massenburg, and Joe Smith, all of whom hold the NBA record for most teams played for (minimum of one game). How many franchises did those four players suit up for in their career?

On This Day in History🗓

Detroit Tiger slugger Cecil Fielder (Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

Anyone know what has happened on June 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 6th…

1937- The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play a matchup that would eventually be forfeited. The game was the second of a doubleheader, the start of which was pushed back due to a rain delay, and St. Louis jumped out to an early 8-2 lead in the fourth inning. However, the delay forced the game to approach what was known as the “7 o’clock closing law”, and since the matchup never reached five innings all stats and a win for St. Louis was wiped out.

1976- The Boston Celtics defeat the Phoenix Suns in six games to win the 30th NBA Championship. Boston finished the 1975-76 regular season with 54 wins, five more wins than the next closest team in the Eastern Conference, and the NBA Finals win gave Boston its 13th title in franchise history. Jo Jo White was named series MVP, one of seven future Hall of Famers to play in the series.

1990- Detroit Tigers slugger Cecil Fielder hits three home runs in one game in a 6-4 victory over the Cleveland Indians. The performance marked the second time that season that Fielder, who is the father of former MLB player Prince Fielder, hit three home runs in the same game, becoming the ninth player in MLB history to do so. After the game Fielder had 22 home runs and 53 RBIs to his name, both of which led the MLB at the time.

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Trivia Answers

  1. Chicago Bears

  2. 2,632

  3. 12