In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 7-5

Over/Under Predictions: 5-7

Run Line Predictions: 8-4

3-star Predictions: 1-0

🏔 Nuggets grab another road win, go up 3-1 in series. The Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat 108-95 last night in South Beach, giving the Western Conference’s No.1 seed a 3-1 series lead. Nikola Jokic put together another terrific stat line, scoring 23 points and adding 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocks. However, Aaron Gordon was the big difference maker in Game 4, scoring 27 points on 11/15 shooting, his highest point total in the postseason. Bruce Brown also contributed 21 points off the bench, helping weather the storm against a Heat bench that scored 36 points. The series will now head back to Denver for Game 5, with the Nuggets one win away from their first title in franchise history.

There is one NHL game scheduled to take place on this fine Saturday, with that matchup being Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers. Vegas jumped out to an early 2-0 series lead, but an overtime victory for Florida in Game 3 made this a 2-1 series.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Vegas Golden Knights- 14-6 overall in postseason, 6-3 as the away team

• Florida Panthers- 13-6 overall in postseason, 5-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 12-8 overall in postseason, 2-1 in Stanley Cup Finals with average total of 7.00.

• Florida Panthers- Over is 8-11 overall in postseason

Puck Line Trends➕➖

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 13-7 overall in postseason, 8-1 as the away team

• Florida Panthers- Puck line is 12-7 overall in postseason, 4-4 as the home team

Vegas Golden Knights @ Florida Panthers

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (OUT)

• Florida Panthers

  • Eetu Luostarinen (OUT)

🔥 Calgary finds a new head coach. The Calgary Flames have been looking for a new head coach since parting ways with Darryl Sutter in May. However, it is being reported that the Flames will hire Ryan Huska as its new bench boss, who has been an assistant with the team for the last five seasons. This will be Huska’s first head coaching gig in the NHL, but he led the charge for Calgary’s AHL affiliate for four seasons before making a move to the NHL. He will be tasked with getting the Flames back to the postseason after falling short in 2023 and being bounced in the first round in the 2021-22 season.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines not being available on books at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for eight of today’s matchups.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Dodgers ML, Under 9, Phillies +1.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies will play Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday afternoon in the City of Brotherly Love.

Philadelphia got the win last night following a Kyle Schwarber walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth inning, the team’s sixth straight win. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has lost five of its last six games.

We have two teams that are trending in opposite directions, but Los Angeles has enough talent to turn things around and get back in the win column. Will the Dodgers pick up a win this afternoon like our model says they will, or will the Phillies continue this dominant stretch of baseball?

Los Angeles Dodgers

The month of June has not been kind to the Dodgers. Los Angeles is just 2-5 overall since the calendar flipped from May, arguably the worst stretch of baseball we have seen from last season’s NL West champions.

The losses can mostly be attributed to the bullpen’s failures in the late stages of many games. According to Fangraphs, the Dodgers bullpen owns a 6.26 ERA in June, the fourth-worst mark in the MLB this month. However, the bullpen struggles aren’t a new trend, as evidenced by LA’s bullpen ERA of 4.74 for the season, also the fourth-worst in the majors.

Three of the last four games have been losses, two against Cincinnati and one against Philadelphia, because of the bullpen. The Dodgers were either tied or owned the lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning of those three matchups, but surrendered six total runs in the final frame across the three losses.

However, with Bobby Miller (2-0 record, 1.06 ERA) set to take the mound this afternoon, there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

Miller has been fantastic since making his MLB debut on May 23rd. The Dodgers’ No.2 prospect has gone 17 innings across three starts, allowing just nine hits and two runs. Baseball Savant has Miller with a 2.10 xERA compared to a 1.06 ERA, both of which are signs of an elite pitcher. Those numbers have come about largely because of his 25.0% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate, both of which are much better than the MLB average this season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The 2023 World Series runner-up hasn’t found its groove yet, entering today with a 31-32 record and in third in the NL East. However, Philadelphia has won six straight games, a sign that the tide may be turning.

Philadelphia’s pitching has been dominant in that six-game stretch, posting a 1.60 Team ERA, per Fangraphs. That is significantly better than Philly’s 4.37 Team ERA for all of 2023, and it has enabled the Phillies to post a +18 run differential during its win streak.

Aaron Nola (5-4 record, 4.30 ERA), who had a no-hitter through 6.2 innings and struck out 12 in his last start, will be tasked with keeping that ERA well below the season average. Just like the rest of the Phillies, Nola is starting to find some momentum, however, he still has his fair share of concerns on the mound.

A big concern for Nola is his velocity, which has fallen for several pitches since last season. His 4-seam fastball and sinker, two of his top-three most thrown pitches, have both dropped at least 0.7 mph from a season ago. His 4-seamer is coming in at 92.1 mph, ranking in the bottom 14% of the MLB in 2023.

The decrease in velocity has allowed opposing hitters to size up Nola this season. In 2022 he owned a 31.6% Hard Hit rate, top 8% of the majors, but in 2023 that has risen to 36.6%, per Baseball Savant. He also owns a 8.4% Barrel rate, up from 7.1% a season ago.

What’s the Play?

Aaron Nola has certainly gotten unlucky this season. That can be seen by simply comparing his ERA (4.30) to his xERA (3.66).

However, the reason for the 4.30 ERA is because Nola simply doesn’t have the same stuff on the mound this season as we have seen in years past. His velocity is down and he is allowing more hard contact, and perhaps even more concerning is his lack of strikeouts. In 2022 Nola struck out 29.1% of batters he faced, but that has dropped significantly to 23.6% this season.

Philadelphia does have the better bullpen, but we have enough confidence that Bobby Miller can keep the Phillies in check while the Dodgers get a few runs with Nola on the mound. Our model says the Dodgers should have odds of -150, which is likely a bit ambitious and skewed from Miller’s 1.06 ERA, but we still like the Dodgers on the money line this afternoon.

3-star play: Dodgers ML (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 38-25 overall this season, 18-11 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- 40-22 overall this season, 19-13 as the away team

• New York Yankees- 37-28 overall this season, 20-16 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• San Diego Padres- Under is 40-21-2 this season, 18-10-2 as the away team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Over is 30-29-3 this season, 17-14-1 as the home team

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 32-26-5 this season, 14-11-3 as the home team

Spread Trends➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 37-25 overall, 22-14 when coming off a loss

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📉 Mets continue to fall in the standings. The New York Mets have been having a miserable 2023 season, currently marked by a seven-game losing streak following a 14-7 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. The losing skid is New York’s longest since 2019, and it could get worse following the announcement of Pete Alonso being out for the next three to four weeks after being hit with a pitch earlier this week. Alonso leads the majors in home runs this season with 22, but New York will need someone else to step up before the hole gets too deep.

🙌 Tyler Glasnow picks up first win since 2021. Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow found the win column for the first time in two years on Friday night in a 8-3 victory over the Texas Rangers. The win came in Glasnow’s third start of the season, a 6.0 inning and six strikeout performance. Glasnow missed most of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and sat out the start of 2023 with an oblique injury, but the 29-year-old owns a 2.87 ERA this season and finally looks healthy.

💯 Yu Darvish wins his 100th game of his career. San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish earned his 100th career win in a 9-6 victory over the Colorado Rockies last night. Darvish allowed four earned runs and struck out six in 5.1 innings, but San Diego’s offense did more than enough to give Darvish some breathing room on the mound. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Gary Sanchez, Brandon Dixon, and Trent Grisham all hit home runs last night, part of a 15-hit performance in what was San Diego’s third win in the last four games.

🏈 DeAndre Hopkins to visit the Patriots next week. Former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver and current free-agent DeAndre Hopkins is expected to visit the New England Patriots next week, per Ian Rapoport. The news comes after it was announced that Hopkins would visit the Tennessee Titans this weekend, showing that interest is starting to grow for the five-time Pro Bowl selection. Current Patriots Offensive Coordinator, Bill O’Brien, has a history with Hopkins, having been his head coach while both were part of the Houston Texans.

⛳️ Carl Yuan leads the Canadian Open after two rounds. PGA Tour rookie Carl Yuan hasn’t had the best start to his pro golf career, but the rookie finds himself in first place at the Canadian Open at 9-under par heading into the weekend. Yuan shot 4-under par in Round 1, following that performance with a 5-under par round on Friday. Cheng-Tsung Pan, Tyrrell Hatton, Aaron Rai, and Canadian Corey Connors are right on Yuan’s tail at 8-under par, which should make for an exciting weekend of golf.

🏀 Sabrina Ionescu has career night against Atlanta. New York Liberty star and former University of Oregon standout Sabrina Ionescu set several career-highs in a 106-83 win over the Atlanta Dream on Friday. Ionescu poured in 37 points to lead all scorers, draining a franchise-record eight three-pointers in the process. New York sits in second in the Eastern Conference with a 5-2 record in the young season, with its next matchup coming on Sunday against the Dallas Wings.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1997 / Round 1 / Pick 1 / San Antonio Spurs

Player 2- 2011 / Round 1 / Pick 15 / Indiana Pacers

Player 3 - 2015 / Round 2 / Pick 46 / Milwaukee Bucks

Player 1- 2001 / Round 3 / Pick 74 / Carolina Panthers

Player 2- 2011 / Round 6 / Pick 180 / Baltimore Ravens

Player 3- 2013 / Round 3 / Pick 88 / Philadelphia Eagles

Anyone know what has happened on June 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially in 1981.

On June 10th…

1952- Chicago White Sox outfielder Sam Mele records six RBIs in one inning in a 15-4 victory over the Philadelphia A’s. Mele was the sixth player in MLB history to accomplish the feat, and now there have been 22 players to record six RBIs in one inning since 1900.

1981- Pete Rose ties Stan Musial’s NL record for hits with 3,630. At the time Rose ranked third in MLB history in hits, but by the time his career was over Rose would sit at the top of the all-time hits list with 4,256. That is 67 more hits more than Ty Cobb in second, the only two players in MLB history to cross the 4,000 mark.

1981- England’s Sebastian Coe sets the 800 meter world record in Florence, Italy with a time of 1:41.73. Coe was one of the best middle distance runners the world has ever seen, winning four Olympic medals in his career, two of which were gold. However, Coe’s world record has been broken by two other people since 1981, with Kenya’s David Rudisha holding the current world record at 1:40.91.

Our referral program is currently being migrated over from our old provider. You will eventually see your referral count here along with your unique code.

NBA Answers

1. Tim Duncan

2. Kawhi Leonard

3. Norman Powell

NFL Answers

1. Steve Smith

2. Tyrod Taylor

3. Nick Foles