In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

MLB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-7-1

Run Line Predictions: 7-6

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Nine NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups can be found below.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals

Model Predicts- Capitals ML, UNDER 6, Capitals +1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins will wrap up a four-game road trip on Thursday night, with the final stop coming in Washington D.C. to take on the Capitals.

Pittsburgh enters tonight’s matchup on the outside of playoff position, posting a 34-30-11 record and 79 points with seven games remaining in the regular season. However, the Penguins have gathered some momentum, emerging victorious in two consecutive games, while Washington has lost three straight games.

Every game matters for both of these squads down the stretch with the playoffs in sight, but our model gives Washington a slight edge here in what it expects to be a low-scoring game. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Enter tonight on two-game win streak

  • Wins over Rangers and Devils

  • Outscoring opponents 11-5 in that stretch

• Offense is over performing during win streak

  • Own 4.36 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations in last two games, but xGF/60 in same situations is much lower at 2.22

  • Generating just 9.96 high-danger scoring chances in 5-on-5 (18th in NHL)

• Expected goalie- Tristan Jarry

  • .914 Save % in 5-on-5 situations. Ranks 33rd in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +3.0

Washington Capitals

• Enter tonight on three-game losing streak

  • Losses to Maple Leafs, Bruins, and Sabres

  • Held to two goals or less in all three games

• Poor offense, but solid defense has been the story over the last month

  • Rank 24th in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 since March 1st (2.28)

  • Own 2.71 GA/60 in 5-on-5, but xGA/60 sits lower at 2.59

• Expected goalie- Charlie Lindgren

  • .916 Save % in 5-on-5. 23rd in GSAx (+7.8)

What’s the Play?

On paper the Penguins offense is red hot, but we agree with our model that this is a good spot to back the under.

Several underlying metrics show that Pittsburgh’s offense is due for regression, and we believe this is a matchup where we see that happen. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Penguins have struggled offensively against the Capitals this season, posting a 1.71 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations, even being held to zero goals in their matchup on March 7th. However, Pittsburgh has been great defensively in those matchups despite what the boxscore says, posting a 2.26 xGA/60 and 8.11 high-danger chances against in 5-on-5.

With offensive regression pending for Pittsburgh, and Washington coming up short offensively in recent games and for most of the season, its likely few goals are scored in this matchup. We’ll back the under at the current total of six.

The Play: Under 6 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Florida Panthers- 47-24-5 overall this season, 25-11-3 as the away team

• Washington Capitals- 36-28-10 overall this season, 20-11-6 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 38-32-5 this season with average total of 6.01

• Washington Capitals- Under is 37-34-3 this season with average total of 5.96

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Montreal Canadiens- Puck line is 48-26 this season

• St. Louis Blues- Puck line is 45-30 this season

⭐️ Stars shutout Oilers for eighth-straight win. Jake Oettinger secured his second consecutive shutout with 35 saves, while Radek Faksa's early goal and two assists contributed to the Dallas Stars' 5-0 victory over Edmonton, extending their franchise record win streak to eight games. The win places the Stars at the top of the Western Conference standings with 105 points, just one point behind the NHL-leading New York Rangers. Oettinger's stellar performance, including key saves during a crucial power play for Edmonton, was praised by Stars coach Pete DeBoer, highlighting his pivotal role in the team's success.

🥊 Rangers-Devils open up game with fight, leading to eight ejections. A fierce rivalry between the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils boiled over into a full-blown line brawl at the start of Wednesday's game, leading to eight players being ejected. The altercation stemmed from ongoing animosity between the teams, particularly involving players Matt Rempe and Kurtis MacDermid. Despite the heated exchanges, both coaches expressed surprise at the intensity of the confrontation, with the Rangers ultimately securing a 4-3 victory.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Three defensive players from the 2002 NFL Draft have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Who are those players?

Question #2- Who holds the MLB record for career ERA, posting a 1.816 ERA across 2,964.1 innings?

Question #3- Former NBA player JJ Redick was selected with the No.11 pick in the 2006 NBA Draft by what team?

Anyone know what has happened on April 4th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 4th…

1989- New York Yankees pitcher Tommy John picks up a win in a 4-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Opening Day. The win was the 287th career victory for John, moving him into 19th on the all-time list. His appearance in the game also marked the start of his 26th MLB season, tying the MLB record.

1997- The NHL’s Anaheim Ducks clinch their first-ever playoff berth. Anaheim posted a 36-33-13 record in the 1996-97 season, good enough for second place in the Pacific division and fourth place in the Western Conference. The Ducks took down the Phoenix Coyotes in seven games in the first round, but were swept 4-0 by the Detroit Red Wings shortly after.

2022- The 83rd NCAA Men’s National Championship is contested between North Carolina and Kansas. The Jayhawks emerged victorious, taking home the win by a final score of 72-69 despite trailing by 16 points in the first half. It was the fourth national title in Kansas program history.

1. Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed

2. Ed Walsh

3. Orlando Magic