In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NHL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-3

Over/Under Predictions: 3-6

Puck Line Predictions: 5-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

After a nine-game slate on Tuesday, the NHL has given us just two games today. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings

Model Predicts- Penguins ML, UNDER 6.5, Red Wings +1.5

The Pittsburgh Penguins win begin a short two-game road trip on Wednesday with a stop in Detroit to take on the Red Wings.

Pittsburgh lost its season opener to the Chicago Blackhawks, but has bounced back nicely with wins over Washington and Calgary. Detroit is in the same boat, losing its opener to New Jersey but defeating Tampa Bay and Columbus.

Our model doesn’t give either team much of an edge here, but we agree that the Penguins are in position to pull out a win. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Great bounce back after losing first game of season

  • Blew 2-1 lead to Chicago in 3rd period

  • Have outscored opponents 9-2 over last two games

• Tremendous combination of offense and defense thus far

  • Rank 5th in GF/60 and 10th in GA/60 in 5-on-5

  • Due for regression on both sides, but numbers are still great

    • 2.93 xGF/60, 2.77 xGA/60 in 5-on-5 this season

• Starting goalie- Tristan Jarry

  • Ranks 14th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) at +1.7

  • .935 Save % and .818 high-danger Save % this season

Detroit Red Wings

• Defense has been star of the show so far

  • Rank 8th in xGA/60 in 5-on-5

  • Surrendering just 6.35 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

  • Coming off shutout win against Blue Jackets

• Offense has been potent as well

  • Rank 7th in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 situations

  • However, generating just 9.35 high danger chances per 60 minutes in the same situations (24th in NHL)

• Starting goalie- Ville Husso

  • .878 Save % this season. Surrendered 7 goals in two starts

  • Ranks 42nd in GSAx (-0.8)

What’s the Play?

Both Pittsburgh and Detroit have gotten the job done on both ends of the ice in the early going. However, we think that the Penguins have the edge tonight.

Detroit has found the back of the net often, but its lack of pressure on opposing goaltenders thus far will likely hinder their offensive production. Additionally, Detroit has played three defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in GA/60 in 5-on-5, so their schedule hasn’t been all that challenging.

Pittsburgh is the best defense that Detroit will face through four games, and the Penguins have the edge in net with Tristan Jarry. We’ll take Pittsburgh on the money line here at -130.

The Play: Penguins ML (-130)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Ottawa Senators- 2-1-0 overall this season, 2-0-0 as the home team

• Pittsburgh Penguins- 2-1-0 overall this season, 1-0-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Washington Capitals- Under is 2-0 this season with average total of 4.50 goals per game

• Pittsburgh Penguins- Under is 2-1 this season with average total of 5.67 goals per game

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is 3-0 overall this season

🤕 Kirby Dach to miss rest of season. Montreal Canadiens' center Kirby Dach is set to miss the entire season due to ACL and MCL tears in his right leg. Dach sustained the injury during a game against his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks, when he was hit into the Blackhawks bench. Dach had made a solid start with two assists in two games for the Habs, continuing his impressive performance from the previous season with 14 goals, 24 assists, and 38 points in 58 games.

⭐️ Fleury shines in potential last appearance in Montreal. Marc-Andre Fleury didn't confirm whether it was his last game in Montreal, but if it was, it was a fitting conclusion in his home province. The 38-year-old goalie from Sorel made his first start of the season for the Minnesota Wild, earning the first star selection and a standing ovation from the Bell Centre crowd as his team defeated the Canadiens 5-2. While Fleury mentioned the possibility of this being his final start in Montreal before the game, he was focused on enjoying the special moment with around 90 friends and family in attendance.

There is one MLB game scheduled to take place, with that matchup featuring the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. You can find our model’s predictions for that matchup below.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

Model Predicts- Astros ML, UNDER 9, Astros +1.5

The Houston Astros will take their talents to Arlington, Texas to battle the Rangers in Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday.

Texas has dominated this series so far, winning the first two games in Houston. The Rangers are now a stellar 7-0 in the postseason, and will have a chance to close out the series over the next few days in front of their home crowd.

Every game is likely to be tightly contested at this stage of the season, but our model is showing a slight edge on the Astros here. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Houston Astros

• Defeated Twins 3-1 in ALDS, now down 0-2 in ALCS

• Pitching staff is getting jumped on early in championship series

  • Justin Verlander- solid outing overall, but allowed 1 run in 2nd inning and 1 in 5th in Game 1

  • Framber Valdez- Allowed 5 runs in first three innings of Game 2

  • Pitching has been good in postseason though- 3.17 ERA, 3.72 FIP (FanGraphs)

• Offense has been posted average numbers

  • 100 wRC+, .250 BABIP, 7.33 OPS in postseason

• Starting pitcher- Cristian Javier

  • 2.23 ERA and 1.09 ERA in last 20.2 innings

  • Struggling with control- 12 walks in that span

  • Ranks in bottom 1% of MLB in ground ball rate, bottom 25% in barrel rate

Texas Rangers

• Offense is red hot in postseason

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (118), BABIP (.327), and OPS (.799)

  • Averaging 5.57 runs per game, +23 run differential

• Starting pitching has been great in postseason, but bullpen may be over-performing

  • Starters- 2.21 ERA, 2.64 FIP (FanGraphs)

  • Bullpen- 2.01 ERA, 4.69 FIP

• Starting pitcher- Max Scherzer

  • Has not pitched since September 12th

  • Ranks in bottom 10% in ground ball rate, bottom 37% in barrel rate (8.5%)

What’s the Play?

Both Javier and Scherzer struggle to keep balls on the ground and off the barrel, which could open up the floodgates for scoring. However, we feel the Astros money line is the better angle to take here.

Scherzer has not pitched in a live game in over a month, so he is quite the wild card today. However, we feel he will likely struggle in his first game back against the Astros due to his high barrel rate and low ground ball rate, especially against an Astros team that has already launched 13 home runs in six postseason games.

Texas’ bullpen has also over-performed by a wide margin thus far, and owned the 7th highest ERA during the regular season (4.77). The Rangers are weak in the late stages of the game, and that won’t make things better if Scherzer gets hit around. We’ll take Houston as a road underdog.

The Play: Astros ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 93-75 overall this season, 53-30 as the away team (including postseason)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Under is 4-2-1 in postseason with average total of 7.86 runs scored per game

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Houston Astros- Run line is 84-84 this season, 28-8 as a road underdog (including playoffs)

⚾️ Dave Roberts set to return to Dodgers. Dave Roberts is set to continue as the Los Angeles Dodgers' manager in 2024, as confirmed by Dodgers' president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Despite a successful regular season in 2023, the team faced disappointment in the NLDS for the second consecutive year. While fans may have anticipated significant changes, Roberts will remain at the helm for the upcoming season, with the challenge of improving the team's postseason performance.

💪 Phillies shutout Diamondbacks in Game 2. Aaron Nola showcased his power on the mound in a dominant 10-0 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Nola, who is set to become a free agent, displayed brilliance with a diverse repertoire of pitches, allowing just three hits and striking out seven. The Phillies also continued their home run spree, hitting three in this game and a record-breaking 15 homers in their last four contests, propelling them to a 2-0 lead in the National League Championship Series.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Who holds the MLB record for most leadoff home runs in the postseason?

Question #2- Who is the only person to be inducted into the Pro Football and Baseball Hall of Fames?

Question #3- What team did Otto Porter Jr. and Georgetown lose to in the first round of the 2013 March Madness tournament?

Anyone know what has happened on October 18th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 18th…

1974- Nate Thurmond becomes the first player in NBA history to record a quadruple double. Thurmond’s legendary stat line came in his debut with the Chicago Bulls, a game in which he recorded 22 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and 12 blocks. Thurmond’s performance has been tough to repeat, with only three more quadruple doubles being recorded.

1977- New York Yankees legend Reggie Jackson hits three consecutive home runs in Game 6 of the World Series. Jackson tied Babe Ruth’s record in the process, propelling New York to a 8-4 win over the Dodgers. New York would l win the series 4 games to 2, with Jackson winning MVP.

2009- Former New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws five touchdown passes in the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans. Brady would end the game with 6 TD passes, a game that would end 59-0 in favor of New England. Brady ended the season with 28 TD passes in 2009, the same year he won the Comeback Player of the Year award.

1. Kyle Schwarber

2. Cal Hubbard

3. Florida Gulf Coast