Is the Wrong Team Favored in Pittsburgh?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAB Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NBA Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-3

Over/Under Predictions: 4-4

Spread Predictions: 3-4-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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Five NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups can be found below.

Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, OVER 6.5, Red Wings +1.5

The Detroit Red Wings will begin a four-game road trip on Wednesday, with the first stop coming in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to take on the Penguins.

Detroit enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of a small slump, one that has seen the Red Wings lose two consecutive games after starting the month of November a perfect 2-0. Those losses put Detroit’s season record at 6-7-1, while Pittsburgh owns a 6-9-2 record through 17 games.

Neither Detroit or Pittsburgh has found much momentum this season, but our model projects the Red Wings to find the win column as an underdog in this one. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Red Wings

• Enter this matchup on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Maple Leafs, one loss to Rangers

  • Own -6 goal differential in that span

• Offense has been bad, but defense has been great during losing streak

  • Offense- Have scored one goal across last two games. Goal came on power play

  • Defense- Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in 5-on-5 sits at 1.96 (8th in NHL). Only two of seven goals allowed have been in 5-on-5 situations

• Expected goalie- Cam Talbot

  • Own .966 Save % in 5-on-5 (5th in NHL). Ranks 7th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +6.1

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Have posted mixed results in November

  • Own 2-2-1 record. Wins over Canadiens and Capitals, losses to Islanders, Hurricanes, and Stars

  • Own -7 goal differential in that span

• Defense has been Penguins’ largest weakness thus far

  • 3.00 xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations ranks 29th in the NHL

  • Opponents putting tons of pressure on net- 13.80 High-Danger Scoring Chances Allowed per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 ranks 31st in NHL

• Expected goalie- Alex Nedeljkovic

  • Owns .887 Save % in 5-on-5 (57th in NHL). Ranks 65th in GSAx (-4.1)

What’s the Play?

Sportsbooks make the Red Wings the underdog in tonight’s matchup, but our model makes them closer to a -130 favorite. As a result, we’ll back Detroit on the money line here.

Detroit’s offense has been poor across the last two games, but scoring opportunities have been coming in bunches during that time. The Red Wings have out-shot their opponents 59-44 over the last two games, and in that time own a 2.45 Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 situations, much higher than their 0.00 GF/60 in 5-on-5. That means Detroit has experienced some bad luck offensively, and is due to see a turnaround when it comes to finding the back of the net.

Additionally, Detroit has much more stability defensively, surrendering 4.35 less high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 than Pittsburgh. Cam Talbot has also been significantly better than Alex Nedeljkovic in net, giving Detroit an excellent last line of defense.

The Red Wings are due for an offensive turnaround, and Pittsburgh’s poor defense and goaltending gives Detroit a great chance to begin that turnaround tonight.

The Play: Red Wings ML (+120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Carolina Hurricanes- 11-3-0 overall this season, 6-2-0 as the away team

• Colorado Avalanche- 8-8-0 overall this season, 5-5-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Under is 10-5-2 this season with average total of 5.53

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 11-3-1 this season with average total of 7.40

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Carolina Hurricanes- Puck line is 10-4 this season

• Anaheim Ducks- Puck line is 8-6 this season

🐧 Penguins trade Lars Eller to Capitals for draft picks. Lars Eller is returning to the Washington Capitals after being traded by the Pittsburgh Penguins for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick. The 35-year-old, who played a key role in the Capitals' 2018 Stanley Cup win, is expected to anchor their third line as a reliable defensive center. Meanwhile, the Penguins, struggling in the standings, are accumulating draft picks and may continue trading pending free agents like Anthony Beauvillier and Marcus Pettersson before the deadline.

✈️ Jets beat Rangers, improve record to 15-1-0. Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor each scored twice, while Connor Hellebuyck made 33 saves, leading the Winnipeg Jets to a 6-3 victory over the New York Rangers for their seventh straight win. Gabriel Vilardi and Vladislav Namestnikov also scored as the Jets secured their 15th win in 16 games, staying unbeaten on the road. Despite goals from Will Cuylle, Alexis Lafreniere, and Kaapo Kakko, the Rangers suffered their second straight home loss, with Igor Shesterkin stopping 27 shots.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Two University of Kansas basketball players were selected in the 2013 NBA Draft. One those players was Ben McLemore, but who was the other.

Question #2- The Atlanta Braves defeated what American League team in six games to win the 1995 World Series?

Question #3- The Boston Bruins set the NHL record for regular season wins during the 2022-23 season. How many games did Boston win?

Anyone know what has happened on November 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On November 13th…

1950- Canadian hockey star Gilbert Perreault is born in Victoriaville, Quebec. Perreault’s hockey talent was evident from a young age, leading him to be selected with the No.1 overall pick the 1970 NHL Draft by the Buffalo Sabres. He would play in the NHL until 1987, recording 512 goals and eight All-Star selections.

2014- Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout is named American League MVP. The honor came following a dominant season for Trout, one that saw the outfielder record 36 home runs, 111 RBIs, and 115 runs scored in 157 games. It was the first MVP award for Trout in his career, and he has since won two more, one in 2016 and one in 2019.

2022- Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid scores 59 points against the Utah Jazz. Embiid made 19 of his 28 field goal attempts and 20 of his 24 free throw attempts in the scoring outburst, leading the 76ers to a 105-98 victory. The performance set a new career-high point total for Embiid, which he would later increase to 70 points.

1. Jeff Withey

2. Cleveland Indians

3. 65

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈

NCAAB Model Predictions🏀

NBA Model Predictions🏀