Is There Value on the Bulls as an Underdog?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NHL Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

NCAAF Model Predictions- End of Newsletter

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Spread Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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10 NBA games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 10 of those matchups can be found below.

Chicago Bulls @ New Orleans Pelicans

Model Predicts- Pelicans ML, OVER 227, Bulls +6.5

The Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans will begin their 2024 season’s on Wednesday night, squaring off at Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Chicago enters this season off a forgettable 2023 season, one in which the Bulls finished with a 39-43 record and in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, New Orleans ended the season in seventh place in the Western Conference with a 49-33 record before being bounced in the first round of the playoffs.

The Pelicans enter the first matchup of the season as a sizable home favorite, but our model expects the Bulls to make this a much more competitive game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Chicago Bulls

• Finished last season as the No.9 seed in the Eastern Conference

  • Posted 39-43 record. Failed to make the playoffs

  • Posted -1.7 Net Rating in regular season- ranked 20th in NBA

• Mediocrity was the name of the game last season

  • Ranked 19th in Offensive Rating (114.0), 22nd in Defensive Rating (115.7)

  • Shot 47% from the floor overall (18th) and 35.8% from three (20th), while holding opponents to shooting 47.3% overall (16th) and 37% from three (20th)

• Key offseason transactions

  • Traded DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso

  • Acquired Josh Giddey from OKC Thunder

New Orleans Pelicans

• Finished last season as No.7 seed in Western Conference

  • Posted 49-33 record. Lost to Oklahoma City Thunder in four games in first round of playoffs

  • Posted +4.6 Net Rating in regular season- ranked 6th in NBA

• Strength of last season’s team was the defense

  • Owned 111.9 Defensive Rating- ranked 6th in NBA

  • Elite at defending the perimeter- held opponents to 34.9% shooting from three (2nd best in NBA)

• Key offseason transactions

  • Acquired Dejounte Murray from Atlanta Hawks

  • Drafted Yves Missi (Baylor) in first round

What’s the Play?

New Orleans is the far better team on paper, but we agree with our model to back the Bulls as a road underdog.

One big factor in this game is the injury report, which is clean for the Bulls and loaded with key players for the Pelicans. Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, Jose Alvarado, and Trey Murphy are listed as either OUT or questionable for tonight’s game, meaning three players that averaged 14.8 points or more per game could be off the floor for New Orleans.

Additionally, we believe the departure of DeMar DeRozan gives Chicago’s offense a much better flow, as Zach LaVine can be the main scorer and lone ball-dominant player. The addition of Josh Giddey and return of Lonzo Ball also gives the Bulls two pass-first point guards back in the lineup, something they did not have the luxury of having last season.

In summary, it’s unclear who the Pelicans will have on the floor tonight, and we’re willing to bet on the Bulls offense seeing improvement despite losing a key scorer in DeRozan. As a result, we’ll take Chicago on the spread.

The Play: Bulls +6.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Indiana Pacers- 47-35 overall last season, 21-20 as the away team

• Phoenix Suns- 49-33 overall last season, 24-17 as the away team

• Golden State Warriors- 46-36 overall last season, 25-16 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Atlanta Hawks- Over was 47-35-1 last season, highest win percentage in NBA (57.3%)

• Utah Jazz- Over was 45-36-1 last season, 22-18-1 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Orlando Magic- 55-34 against the spread (ATS) last season (including playoffs), 25-22 ATS as an underdog

• Chicago Bulls- 42-41-1 ATS last season, 26-24-1 ATS as an underdog

👨‍👦LeBron James and Bronny James become first father-son duo to play together in NBA game. LeBron James and his son Bronny made history by becoming the first father-son duo to play together in an NBA game during the Lakers' 110-103 win over the Timberwolves. Bronny played briefly in the second quarter, sharing a special moment with his father, who called it one of the greatest gifts he's received. The game also marked JJ Redick's debut as Lakers' head coach, and Anthony Davis led the team with 36 points and 16 rebounds.

☘️ Celtics’ historic performance from three helps blowout Knicks. The Boston Celtics tied the NBA record for most three-pointers in a game, making 29 in their 132-109 win over the New York Knicks, fueled by Jayson Tatum’s 37 points and eight threes. Despite missing their last 13 attempts from deep, Boston dominated, with Derrick White and Jaylen Brown adding a combined 11 triples. The Celtics celebrated their 18th championship banner before the game, while Knicks players were left in awe of Boston's incredible shooting performance.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer is the former CEO of what American technology company?

Question #2- Who led the MLB in home runs and RBIs in the 2019 season, hitting 59 homers and recording 132 RBIs?

Question #3- One NFL player drafted in the seventh round of the 2009 NFL Draft became a Pro Bowler in his career. Who was that player?

Anyone know what has happened on October 23rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 23rd…

2008- NHL legend Joe Sakic scores his final career goal. The goal was #625 for Sakic, which came in the second period in a 4-1 victory over the Edmonton Oilers. Sakic’s goal total ranks 16th all-time, and all were scored as a member of the Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche.

2019- Kyrie Irving makes his debut with the Brooklyn Nets. Irving led the way for Brooklyn in a 127-126 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves, scoring 50 points. The scoring output set a new NBA record for points scored by a player in his first game with a new team, a record that still stands to this day.

2022- The Philadelphia Phillies beat the San Diego Padres in the National League Championship Series. Philadelphia won the series in five games, capping off the series with a 4-3 home victory in Game 5. The Phillies went on to play the Houston Astros in the World Series, losing in six games.

1. Microsoft

2. Giancarlo Stanton

3. Pat McAfee

NHL Model Predictions🏒

NCAAF Model Predictions🏈