Is Total too Low in Boston?

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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Ten NHL games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all ten matchups can be found below.

Detroit Red Wings @ Boston Bruins

Model Predicts- Bruins ML, OVER 5.5, Red Wings +1.5

The Detroit Red Wings will begin a short two-game road trip on Tuesday night, with the first stop coming in Boston, Massachusetts to battle the Bruins.

Detroit enters tonight’s Eastern Conference matchup in the midst of a slump, one that has seen the Red Wings lose two-consecutive games. Those losses bring Detroit’s record to 10-11-3 for the season, good enough for sixth place in the Atlantic Division, while Boston sits in third place in the same division with a 12-11-3 record.

Our model projects the Bruins to be a sizable favorite at home tonight, but we are more focused on the total in this matchup. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Red Wings

• Enter tonight on two-game losing streak

  • One loss to Devils, one loss to Canucks

  • Own -2 goal differential in that span. Surrendered five goals in both games

• Defense has been shredded during losing streak

  • Allowing 4.84 goals per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 situations. xGA/60 sits only slightly lower at 4.42 (last in NHL)

  • Surrendering tons of pressure on net- 17.90 High-Danger Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 ranks last in NHL across last two games

• Expected goalie- Ville Husso

  • Owns .837 Save % in 5-on-5 situations- ranks 75th out of 79 goalies

  • Ranks 64th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with -4.4

Boston Bruins

• Enter tonight having won four of last six games

  • Wins over Hockey Club, Red Wings, Islanders, and Canadiens. Losses to Canucks and Penguins

  • Own +5 goal differential in that span

• Offense has been struggling to score, but a turn around is on the way

  • Rank 31st in Goals For per 60 minutes (GF/60) in 5-on-5 with 2.44, but Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) in 5-on-5 sits much higher at 3.07

  • Generating more scoring opportunities recently- averaging 30.5 shots on goal/game over last two games. Up from 27.6 for season

• Expected goalie- Jeremey Swayman

  • Owns .924 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 70th in GSAx (-6.4)

What’s the Play?

The total for tonight’s Atlantic Division matchup is set at 5.5, while our model projects closer to 6.5 goals to be scored here. As a result, we’ll back the over.

Neither Boston nor Detroit has a strong goaltender in net tonight, which poses trouble for both sides. Ville Husso has only played in three games this season, but all three appearances have been a disaster as he has surrendered at least three goals in each matchup. Swayman has been on the ice much more often, but his play has been far from consistent, allowing between one and seven goals across his last six appearances.

Additionally, Detroit’s defense has been horrific during its losing streak, which gives Boston a great chance to turn its season around offensively. As previously mentioned, the Bruins possess an xGF/60 in 5-on-5 that is higher than their GF/60 in the same situations, showing that more goals are on the horizon.

We expect Boston to light the lamp often tonight, and we agree with our model that Detroit can piece together enough scores to push this total above 5.5, which our model gives a 64.27% chance to happen.

The Play: Over 5.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Florida Panthers- 15-9-1 overall this season, 7-4-0 as the away team

• Minnesota Wild- 16-4-4 overall this season, 6-3-1 as the home team

• Calgary Flames- 12-9-4 overall this season, 9-3-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Florida Panthers- Over is 16-9-0 this season with average total of 6.88

• Columbus Blue Jackets- Over is 16-6-1 this season with average total of 7.17

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Capitals- Puck line is 17-7 this season

• Columbus Blue Jackets- Puck line is 14-9 this season

⛸ Ovechkin skates on ice for first time since breaking leg. Alex Ovechkin skated on his own before Washington Capitals practice, wearing a tracksuit and helmet but no hockey gear, as he works toward returning from a broken left fibula suffered in mid-November. Initially ruled out for four to six weeks without needing surgery, Ovechkin could return in late December or early January, aiming to resume his chase of Wayne Gretzky’s career goal record. Despite his absence, the Capitals have won four straight games and currently lead the Eastern Conference.

🍁 Maple Leafs beat struggling Blackhawks thanks to strong performance from Stolarz. Auston Matthews scored his first goal since returning from injury, leading the Toronto Maple Leafs to a 4-1 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks, with additional goals from John Tavares, Fraser Minten, and Matthew Knies. Chicago's Lukas Reichel scored their lone goal, while goalies Anthony Stolarz and Arvid Soderblom made 27 and 18 saves, respectively. Toronto excelled in November with strong defensive play and continues their momentum, while Chicago faces struggles, including a three-game losing streak.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What team has made the College Football Playoff the most times since its creation in 2014?

Question #2- Prior to Russell Westbrook, what player held the NBA record for the most career triple doubles?

Question #3- What baseball team is Patrick Mahomes a part owner of?

Anyone know what has happened on December 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 3rd…

1956- Basketball legend Wilt Chamberlain makes his college basketball debut for Kansas. Chamberlain recorded 52 points and 31 rebounds in an 87-69 win over Northwestern, both of which were new school records. Wilt would play just two years at Kansas, averaging 29.9 points and 18.3 rebounds per game in 48 contests.

1983- Nebraska running back Mike Rozier wins the 49th Heisman Trophy. The honor came after Rozier rushed for 2,148 yards and 29 touchdowns in his senior season, shattering Nebraska’s previous records. Rozier was the second Cornhusker to ever win the Heisman, joining Johnny Rodgers, who won the award in 1972.

2011- LSU defeats Georgia 42-10 in the 20th SEC Championship game. It was the third time that LSU and Georgia met in the SEC Championship, and it was won after the Tigers scored 42 unanswered points after being down 10-0 in the first quarter. The win gave LSU a 13-1 record for the season, and current New Orleans Saints safety Tyrann Mathieu was named the game’s MVP.

1. Alabama

2. Oscar Robertson

3. Kansas City Royals