In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-3

Over/Under Predictions: 4-1-1

Run Line Predictions: 4-2

3-star Predictions: 1-0

🧳 Hawks send John Collins packing to Utah. Atlanta Hawks forward John Collins has been one of the handful of players that has found his way into trade rumors over the last two seasons. Most of those rumors never held any weight, that is until Collins was traded to the Utah Jazz for Rudy Gay and a second round pick on Monday afternoon. The trade will not be finalized until July 6th due to Gay exercising his player option for next season, but the trade of Collins allowed Atlanta to create a $25.3 million traded exception that presents the Hawks the chance to take on another player’s salary. Collins signed a 5-year, $125 million extension with Atlanta in 2021, but averaged just 13.1 points per game last season, his lowest scoring output since his rookie season.

🌎 Victor Wembanyama to skip FIBA World Cup. Victor Wembanyama, the French basketball phenom and the 2023 No.1 overall pick, will reportedly skip out on the FIBA World Cup in what he is calling a “necessary sacrifice”. Wembanyama had expressed interest in representing his home country on one of the world’s biggest stages, but cited the short timeline, increased workload, and concerns for his health as the reasons why he will sit out. The FIBA World Cup will take place from August 25-September 10, with games being played in the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia.

🛠 Portland still committed to building around Damian Lillard. Stop us if you’ve heard this before. Despite a 33-49 record last season, the Portland Trail Blazers are committed to building the roster around All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, per Bill Oram. Lillard and his agent, Aaron Goodwin, reportedly met with Portland general manager Joe Cronin on Monday to discuss Lillard’s future with the team, with both sides leaving the meeting confident that they can make things work. Lillard’s status with the Trail Blazers organization has been called into question several times over the last few seasons, but it appears that things will stay the same even after selecting Scoot Henderson with the No.3 overall pick in last week’s NBA Draft.

🏆 Connor McDavid cleans up at the NHL Awards. Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid walked away with some more hardware after the 2023 NHL Awards, winning the Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award. The Hart Trophy is given to the player that is deemed to be the most valuable player by the Professional Hockey Writers Association, and the Ted Lindsay Award is given to the most outstanding player in the eyes of the player’s association. This is the third time that McDavid has won the Hart Trophy, which he was one vote away from winning unanimously, and the fourth time he has won the Ted Lindsay Award in his eight-year NHL career.

🥅 Linus Ullmark wins Vezina Trophy. Boston Bruins goalie Linus Ullmark was awarded the 2023 Vezina Trophy, the award given to who the 32 general managers believe is the NHL’s top goaltender. New York Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin and Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck were the other finalists, but Ullmark won in a landslide after receiving 22 first-place votes. The 29-year old ended the 2022-23 season with an incredible 40-6-1 record and played a massive role in Boston’s record-setting regular season, posting a .938 save percentage and 1.89 goals allowed average.

3️⃣ Erik Karlsson wins third Norris Trophy of his career. San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson was awarded the Norris Trophy on Monday night, the third time in his career that he has been named the league’s top defenseman. Karlsson blew the rest of the field away, receiving 123 first-place votes following a season in which he led all defenders with 25 goals and 101 points. Karlsson became the first defenseman to break the 100 point mark in a season since Brian Leetch did so in 1991-92, but San Jose still limped to a 22-44-16 record in 2023.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout Tuesday night. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time of writing, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Minnesota Twins @ Atlanta Braves

Model Predicts- Twins ML, Under 9, Twins +1.5

The Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves will square off in Game 2 of a best-of-three series in Atlanta on Tuesday night.

Atlanta took Game 1 by a score of 4-1 thanks to a stellar outing from Spencer Strider, who allowed just one run, three hits, and struck out 10 in 7.0 innings. The victory was the third consecutive for Atlanta and the ninth in the last ten games.

Minnesota hasn’t found the win column nearly as often compared to Atlanta. However, the Twins have won four of their last six and sit in first place in the AL Central.

The Braves had the better performance on the mound on Monday night, but our model gives the Twins a slight edge here thanks to Joe Ryan getting the start for Minnesota. Will he presence on the mound get Minnesota back above .500, or will Atlanta continue its dominant run?

Minnesota Twins

The AL Central might be the worst division in baseball. As previously mentioned, Minnesota sits atop the division as we approach the halfway mark of the season, but its 40-40 record is far from impressive.

A big reason for Minnesota underwhelming record comes as a result of it struggles at the plate. TeamRankings has the Twins ranked 21st in the majors with just 4.26 runs per game, and Minnesota’s abysmal 27.1% strikeout rate puts it last in the MLB by more than 1.0%.

Despite going 4-2 in the last six games, the Minnesota offense has stayed relatively flat. We’ve seen the Twins’ strikeout rate drop slightly to 25.0% in that time, but their wRC+ (100) and BABIP (.287) have stayed right at their season averages.

This is an offense that hasn’t shown many signs of life this season. Luckily, Minnesota will have Joe Ryan (8-4 record, 2.98 ERA) on the mound today, which puts the Twins in an excellent spot.

Ryan has been one of the more dominant pitchers in the majors this season, as evidenced by throwing a three-hit, zero run complete game in his last start against Boston. Ryan’s xERA (2.43) puts him in the top 4% of the majors, and his 27.3% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate shows that he has tremendous control on the mound and has no problems keeping runners off the base paths.

Atlanta Braves

It’s no secret that the Atlanta Braves are on of the best teams in baseball. The Braves own a 51-27 record along with a 6.5-game lead in the NL East, and its win percentage comes in nearly 5.0% higher than the next closest team in the National League (Arizona).

However, some metrics indicate that Bryce Elder (5-1 record, 2.40 ERA), today’s starting pitcher, is due to see some regression moving forward. That puts Atlanta in an interesting spot today.

Elder has allowed just seven hits and one earned runs across his last 13.0 innings. However, his 3.37 xERA, which is 1.37 runs higher than his actual ERA, should set off some alarms.

The reason for that variance is due to Elder’s inability to strikeout many batters. Per Baseball savant, he ranks in the bottom 34% of the majors in strikeout rate (20.8%), and his Whiff rate being in bottom 43% shows that hitters aren’t often fooled by his stuff.

Elder has also been vulnerable to hard contact this season, which has also played a huge role in the ERA-xERA variance. He owns a 43.0% Hard Hit rate in 2023, which is up from 34.4% a season ago and puts him in the bottom 27% of the majors.

What’s the Play?

The Minnesota Twins offense is a tough group to trust and come nowhere close to matching Atlanta at the plate. However, we feel that Joe Ryan gives the Twins a significant advantage this evening, and therefore feel comfortable backing them as a road underdog.

Normally the Twins’ strikeout trends would be a massive concern in any matchup, but Elder simply doesn’t strike enough guys out to make us all that worried. That is going to give the Twins, a team that ranks in the top 7% of the majors in Barrel rate (10.0%) a chance to size up the right-hander.

Additionally, the Twins have far more success at the plate against righties, batting .236 with a .725 OPS as opposed to .216 with a .666 OPS against left-handers, per ESPN. Neither split is impressive, but Elder, who is right-handed, being on the mound plays into the Twins’ advantage.

Our model actually projects the Twins as slight favorites here, projecting odds of -107. As a result, we’ll back Minnesota as a road underdog.

3-star play: Twins ML (+130)

Money Line Trends💰

• Boston Red Sox- 40-39 overall this season, 21-18 as the home team

• Houston Astros- 42-36 overall this season, 20-17 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 54-27 overall this season, 20-17 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Diego Padres- Under is 47-28-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 42-35-2 this season, 23-15-1 as the home team

• New York Mets- Under is 42-35-1 this season, 21-12 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Minnesota Twins- Run line is 39-41 overall this season, 12-9 as a road underdog

• New York Yankees- Run line is 42-36 overall this season, 8-6 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Jazz Chisholm, Jean Segura return from the IL Monday. Miami Marlins center fielder Jazz Chisholm and third baseman Jean Segura were officially activated from the IL on Monday. Chisholm has not made an appearance for the Marlins since May 13th because of a toe injury, which was suffered after colliding with a wall while attempting to make a catch in a loss to the Cincinnati Reds. Meanwhile, Segura has been on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring injury. The Marlins, who are off to their best start since 1997 with a 45-34 record, will begin a three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday.

☎️ Baltimore calls up Jordan Westburg. The Baltimore Orioles have some fantastic prospects developing in the minor leagues, and another one of those young talents was called up to the big leagues last night. Jordan Westburg, the MLB’s 34th ranked prospect, made his major league debut last night in a 10-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds after batting .295 with 18 home runs and 54 RBIs in the minors this season. Westburg made a solid impression early on, going 1-4 with an RBI in the fifth inning to help put the game away.

😇 Angels beat White Sox thanks to wild pitch. A Shohei Ohtani home run in the fourth inning was the only run that the Los Angeles Angels could come across against the White Sox last night, that is until the bottom of ninth inning. White Sox pitcher Aaron Bummer lost control of a ball and it got away from catcher Yasmani Grandal, allowing Mike Trout to sprint down the third baseline a score the game-winning run. The win was just the third in the last eight games for LA, but may help turn around the Angels’ recent struggles.

📺 Will we see the New York Jets on the next Hard Knocks? Everyone’s favorite behind-the-scenes TV show is set to make an appearance later this summer, and the New York Jets are reportedly "bracing” to be selected as the team that is followed throughout training camp. New York has been the subject of many headlines this offseason, with the most notable headline being a trade involving long-time Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The jets finished last season with a 7-10 record and in fourth in the AFC East, but the new additions to the roster could make New York must-see TV this offseason.

🐯 LSU wins the College World Series. The LSU Tigers were crowned NCAA champions on Monday night, winning their first College World Series title since 2009 after blowing out the Florida Gators 18-4. The Tigers took Game 1 of the best-of-three series, but were blown out in historic fashion in Game 2, losing 24-4, before last night’s series-clinching victory. Every starter in LSU’s lineup ended the game with a hit and eight of nine recorded at least one RBI, a huge boost towards giving the Tigers program its seventh College World Series title.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Memphis Grizzlies have been located in Memphis since 2001, the city the franchise relocated to following a brief six-year stint in what other city?

Question #2- Home runs and extra-base hits are by no means easy to come by in baseball, expect for one player who is still to this day the only player in MLB history to record 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same season. Who is that player?

Question #3- The Minnesota Vikings played in four Super Bowls throughout the 1970s. How many of those Super Bowls did the Vikings win?

Question #4- DeSean Jackson was selected with the 49th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. Jackson would play for the Eagles until he was released in March of 2014. What team signed Jackson following his release?

Anyone know what has happened on June 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially for who many consider to be the biggest busts in NBA Draft history.

On June 27th…

1980- Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jerry Reuss throws his first and only no-hitter of his career in am 8-0 shutout victory over the San Francisco Giants. The performance was the first no-hitter of the 1980 MLB season and the 16th in Dodgers team history, and Reuss was one throwing error away from having a perfect game. Reuss would go on to finish the 1980 season with a stellar 18-6 record and 2.51 ERA, collecting 10 complete games and six shutouts along the way.

2001- The Washington Wizards select Kwame Brown with the No.1 overall pick in the 2001 NBA Draft. Brown was selected out of Glynn Academy in Georgia, bypassing the NCAA despite signing a letter of intent with the Florida Gators. He would go on to have lengthy 12-year NBA career, but bounced around and played for seven different teams in that time. Brown would end his career averaging just 6.6 points per game in 607 career appearances, a far cry from what the former No.1 overall pick’s expectations were set at.

2013- The Cleveland Cavaliers select UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick of the 2013 NBA Draft, becoming the first Canadian player to be selected No.1 overall. To this day Bennett is widely regarded as one of the biggest busts in NBA history, averaging just 4.4 points per game in 151 appearances. Bennett only played one season for the Cavaliers, eventually finding his way to the Timberwolves, Raptors, and Nets throughout the following three seasons. He currently plays for the Hsinchu JKO Lioneers in Taiwan.

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1. Vancouver

2. Albert Belle

3. 0

4. Washington Redskins (now the Washington Commanders)