In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were no model predictions yesterday, July 20, 2024.

15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

Model Predicts- Tigers ML, OVER 8, Tigers +1.5

The Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up their three-game series on Sunday afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled for 1:37 PM Eastern.

Detroit has been in firm control of this series from the opening pitch, taking home the victory in Games 1 and 2. That now gives the Tigers four wins in their last four games dating back to July 13th, while the Blue Jays have been losers in four of their last five contests.

Our model makes today’s matchup a coin flip, but it still believes there is plenty of value on the Tigers as an underdog. Let’s dive into why that is.

Detroit Tigers

• Have taken care of Blue Jays thus far

  • 2-0 in series. Outscored Toronto 5-4 in Game 1 and 7-3 in Game 2

• Now victorious in four straight games

  • Rank 8th in wRC+ (131), 8th in BABIP (.321), and 8th in OPS (.828)

  • 27 runs scored in that four-game span- 3rd most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Keider Montero

  • Due for positive regression- 5.47 ERA vs 4.82 xERA

  • Great at limiting hard contact- 35.1% Hard Hit rate

Toronto Blue Jays

• Have lost four of last five games

  • Two losses to Tigers, two losses to Diamondbacks

  • -16 run differential in that span

• Pitching staff can’t seem to fool Tigers offense

  • Starters- 6.94 ERA (25th), 4.28 FIP (19th), and 1.54 HR/9 (21st) in series

  • Relievers- 4.26 ERA (18th), 3.79 FIP (16th), 1.42 HR/9 (18th) in series

• Starting pitcher- Kevin Gausman

  • Due for regression -4.50 ERA vs 5.18 xERA

  • Ranks in bottom 18% of MLB in Hard Hit rate (43.0%) and Barrel rate (11.5%)

What’s the Play?

The Toronto Blue Jays continue to slide in the standings while the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of an upward trajectory, and we agree with our model that those trends will continue today.

Kevin Gausman has had problems on the mound all season, and the variance between his real ERA and xERA suggests that things are only going to get worse. A large reason for that is due to his inability to avoid barrel contact, which has led to seven home runs across his last six starts, which is a flaw that a Tigers offense that has launched 26 homers since July 1st (4th in MLB) can expose.

Meanwhile, although young an inexperienced, Keider Montero is expected to perform slightly better on the mound compared to what we’ve seen thus far, and he’ll likely have plenty of run support on his side today. As a result, we’ll back the Tigers money line again at plus money.

The Play: Tigers ML (+135)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 54-43 overall this season, 30-18 as the home team

• Detroit Tigers- 49-50 overall this season, 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Milwaukee Brewers- Over is 53-39-6 this season, highest win percentage in MLB (57.6%)

• Atlanta Braves- Under is 57-35-5 overall this season, 30-17-1 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Kansas City Royals- Run line is 56-43 overall this season, 30-21 as the home team

💪 Astros take sole possession of 1st place in AL West. The Houston Astros defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-2 on Saturday to take first place in the AL West, overcoming a 10-game deficit since June 18. Astros outfielder Jake Meyers emphasized the team's focus on winning each game, contributing to their 19-6 record over the last 25 games, while the Mariners have struggled with an 8-17 record. The Mariners, who now trail by 2.5 games for the final wild-card spot, saw their division-winning odds drop from 86.3% to 41.7% since mid-June.

👀 Kershaw to make season debut this week. Clayton Kershaw will make his 2024 debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday after missing the season due to shoulder surgery last November. The 36-year-old re-signed with the Dodgers on a one-year, $10-million contract with a player option for 2025 and recorded a 3.60 ERA in three rehab starts. Additionally, right-hander Tyler Glasnow will return from the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Giants after recovering from back tightness.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2012. We’ve gathered the college logos of the top-six picks of the 2012 NBA Draft, and it is your job to name all six players.

As always, answers are at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 21st…

Anyone know what has happened on July 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 21st…

1973- Atlanta Braves legend Hank Aaron hits a home run off Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ken Brett, giving the slugger his 700th career home run. The homer, a two-run shot, came in the bottom of the third inning, giving Atlanta a 4-2 lead in the early stages of the game. However, Philadelphia would go on to spoil the milestone, stringing together a comeback victory to win 8-4.

1996- NHL legend Wayne Gretzky signs a two-year contract with the New York Rangers. The contract came after Gretzky played for the Los Angeles Kings from 1988-1996 and a small stint with the St. Louis Blues to end the 1996 season. Gretzky’s impact was immediate in New York, leading the Rangers to the Eastern Conference Finals in 1997, where they would eventually lose in five games to the Philadelphia Flyers.

2013- Phil Mickelson wins the British Open, defeating Swedish golfer Henrik Stenson by three strokes. Mickelson opened the tournament with a 2-under par round, good enough to be tied for ninth after 18 holes. However, he followed that up with a 3-over par round on Friday, causing him to plummet in the standings before shooting 4-under across the final 36 holes to win the event. The win was Mickelson’s sixth major victory of his career and the first since he won the Masters in 2010.

1. Anthony Davis

2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

3. Bradley Beal

4. Dion Waiters

5. Thomas Robinson

6. Damian Lillard