In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-2

Spread Predictions: 1-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants

Model Predicts- Mets ML, UNDER 8, Mets +1.5

The New York Mets will wrap up their six-game West Coast road trip this afternoon, taking on the San Francisco Giants in the final game of a three-game series.

New York hasn’t had much luck in this series, dropping the first two games after taking two of three contests against the Los Angeles Dodgers only a few days prior. As a result, the Mets enter today’s contest in the midst of a three-game losing streak, pushing their season record to 12-11, while the Giants have won two consecutive games and now own a 12-13 record.

New York and San Francisco appear to be trending in opposite directions at the moment, but our model expects the Mets to take back in the win column today. Let’s take a look at why that is.

New York Mets

• Offense has been horrific during losing streak

  • Own 33 wRC+ (29th in MLB), .229 BABIP

  • Drawing walk on just 4.1% of plate appearances, while striking out on 22.7%

• Luckily face Blake Snell this afternoon, which is favorable matchup

  • Have done damage against lefties this season- 7th in wRC+ (121), 1st in strikeout rate (15.3%)

  • For comparison, own 99 wRC+ and 21.1% strikeout rate against righties (FanGraphs)

• Starting pitcher- Sean Manaea

  • Has been far from great on the mound- 4.12 ERA vs 5.74 xERA

  • Still has shown to have decent stuff- Ranks in top 40% of MLB in Whiff %, Chase %, and Strikeout %

San Francisco Giants

• Have taken care of Mets in this series

  • Scored five runs in each of first two game. +7 run differential in that span

  • 98 wRC+ in series- pretty much league average

• Struggles vs lefties and bullpen issues could pose problems today

  • Own 91 wRC+ and .284 BABIP against lefties while at home this season

  • Bullpen owns 5.47 ERA for season. 4.50 ERA and 4.68 xFIP in this series

• Starting pitcher- Blake Snell

  • Struggling to find a rhythm- Owns 11.57 ERA in 11.2 innings this season

  • Strikeout rate is 20.7% (down from 31.5% last season) and Hard Hit rate is up 5.2% from last season

What’s the Play?

Neither one of today’s starting pitchers should give anyone much confidence, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to back the Mets as outright winners.

Snell’s ERA will eventually come down, but until we see him figure things out on the mound, we think it’s wise to continue to fade him. Walks have always been a problem for Snell (13.1% walk rate (last season, nearly 9% this year), but in past season’s he has made up for it with a high strikeout rate. However, that is not the case this season, and its unlikely we see him close the gap between this season’s and last season’s numbers today against a Mets offense that makes consistent contact against southpaws.

Manaea is no stud, but he has been better than Snell this year and has a bullpen behind him that is far stronger than what the Giants bring to the table. New York has the edge on the mound and at the plate this afternoon, making them a viable betting option today.

The Play: Mets ML (+110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New York Mets- 12-11 overall this season, 6-5 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- 17-6 overall this season, 7-3 as the home team and 5-0 in last five games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 14-7-2 this season, highest win % in MLB

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 15-7-1 this season, 7-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 14-10 this season, 3-1 as a home underdog

💪 Scherzer to make first rehab start following offseason back surgery. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer is preparing for his first game since undergoing back surgery in the offseason by making a minor league rehab start with Triple-A Round Rock on Wednesday night against Salt Lake. Scherzer, a 39-year-old right-hander for the Texas Rangers, is aiming to throw about 50 pitches against the Los Angeles Angels' affiliate team, following a 40-pitch simulated game last Friday. The surgery, which took place on Dec. 15 to address a herniated disk, was a result of discomfort Scherzer experienced during Game 3 of the World Series last year.

🤕 Triston Casas out “a while” with broken rib. Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas has suffered a fractured left rib, as confirmed by manager Alex Cora on Tuesday. Casas' injury, resulting from an awkward swing during a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates last Saturday, was initially diagnosed as a rib strain, but a follow-up MRI revealed the fracture. With no specific timetable for his return, Casas will be out for an indefinite period, prompting Bobby Dalbec to assume the primary first base duties for the Red Sox.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What team took down the Boston Bruins in six games to win the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals?

Question #2- Who led the NBA in scoring during the 2005-06 season, averaging 35.4 points per game?

Question #3- Philadelphia Eagles players Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean were stars at what SEC school prior to their pro careers?

Anyone know what has happened on April 24 throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 24th…

1978- Los Angeles Angels pitcher Nolan Ryan records 15 strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners. It was the 20th time in Ryan’s career that he struck out 15 hitters in a game, and he would end his career with 26 such games in total. Ryan went all the way to the ninth inning against Seattle, but was removed from the game with score tied at five and received a no-decision.

1994- NBA legend David Robinson scores 71 points in a game. Robinson’s legendary performance came in a 112-97 win over the Los Angeles Clippers, one in which Robinson shot 26/41 from the floor and 18/25 from the free throw line. Robinson’s point total at the time was the seventh-highest in NBA history, and now it sits tied at nine.

2004- Ole Miss quarterback Eli Manning is selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Manning was taken off the board by the San Diego Chargers, who immediately traded him to the New York Giants for Philip Rivers after Manning said he refused to play for the team. He would go on to play his entire career with the Giants, and retired in 2019.

1. Chicago Blackhawks

2. Kobe Bryant

3. University of Georgia