In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-8

Over/Under Predictions: 5-9

Run Line Predictions: 8-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

📝 Mike Evans seeking new contract from Tampa Bay. Four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver and team leader Mike Evans has established a Week 1 deadline for securing a new contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His representatives, Day 1 Sports and Entertainment, have communicated that if no deal is reached, Evans will seek to play for a different team in 2024. Despite his desire to remain with the Buccaneers, Evans is looking for a contract that reflects his contributions and abilities, having posted nine consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and holding numerous franchise records.

🤕 Seahawks rule Jamal Adams out for Week 1. Seattle Seahawks' strong safety Jamal Adams will be sidelined for the team's season opener against the Los Angeles Rams, according to coach Pete Carroll. This decision comes as no surprise, as Adams, who missed most of the previous season due to injury, has not practiced since his activation from the physically unable to perform list on August 24. The Seahawks have been cautious about his return, prioritizing his long-term readiness, and have signed Julian Love as insurance in the meantime.

💰 Chris Jones not willing to budge, holdout continues as Week 1 approaches. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the brink of the 2023 season opener against the Detroit Lions, but the contract dispute involving star defensive tackle Chris Jones looms heavily over the Super Bowl champions. Jones, seeking a more lucrative deal reflective of his status as one of the NFL's premier defensive players, currently earns less than several other defensive tackles. The Chiefs placed him on the reserve/did not report list, and with Jones skipping training camp and incurring fines, the situation has escalated as he aims for a significant payday.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Seattle Mariners @ New York Mets

Model Predicts- Mariners ML, OVER 8, Mariners -1.5

The Seattle Mariners and New York Mets will face off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday evening at Citi Field.

New York managed to steal Game 1 with the help of Kodai Senga’s stellar performance on the mound. However, New York still sits 11 games under .500 after the win, while Seattle is 18 games above .500 and in first place in the AL West.

Despite last night’s loss, Seattle is one of the hottest teams in baseball, and our model believes that will stay the case following tonight’s game. Let’s dive into why that is and see where our model thinks there is value in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners were a bit of an afterthought in the AL West not too long ago, sitting in fourth place with a 55-51 record on July 31st.

However, as previously mentioned, the Mariners now sit in first place in their division thanks to winning 21 of 27 games in August, a stretch that has made many believe Seattle can compete for a World Series title.

An uptick in production at the plate was the main catalyst for Seattle’s surge in the standings. Prior to August 1st the Mariners owned a 99 wRC+ and .293 BABIP, per FanGraphs, two metrics in which the team ranked in the bottom half of the MLB. However, since August 1st we’ve seen those numbers rise to 141 and .352, respectively, ranking Seattle first in both categories.

Despite a 25.2% strikeout rate in that same timeframe, we’ve seen Seattle post a .858 OPS, mostly because of the 47 home runs that were hit in August and the team’s 9.8% walk rate. The strikeout rate isn’t pretty, but the Mariners are finding plenty of ways to still get on base.

Luis Castillo (11-7 record, 3.01 ERA) will get the start on the mound for Seattle, looking to pick up his fifth consecutive win. According to FanGraphs, Castillo owns a 2.00 ERA, 2.26 FIP, and 0.78 WHIP across his last four starts. His 25.7% strikeout rate and 4.0% walk rate have contributed largely to those numbers, and his one home run allowed in the last 27 innings indicates that opposing hitters are having trouble sizing him up.

New York Mets

The New York Mets didn’t have nearly as much success last month when compared to Seattle. The Mets went just 12-17 overall in August, a result of trading away several players before the August 1st trade deadline.

Although expected, the effects of the trade deadline have been drastic for New York, with the Mets regressing in almost every aspect of the game. Prior to August 1st, the Mets ranked 14th in the MLB in wRC+ (99) and 13th in Team ERA (4.30). The offense has stayed relatively flat, posting a 97 wRC+ in August, but the pitching staff saw its ERA soar to 4.85 last month following the departures of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

David Peterson (3-7 record, 5.23 ERA) will be in charge of bringing that number back to its previous levels, but that will likely be a tall task for the left-hander.

Peterson pitched rather well in August, including a 7.0 inning, one run performance in his last start. However, Peterson’s 1.55 WHIP last month indicates that he was allowing opposing hitters to get on base in bunches, with his biggest issue being his 16.5% walk rate.

Essentially, Peterson has gotten rather lucky recently, and his 5.85 FIP compared to his 3.27 ERA in August shows that.

What’s the Play?

The gap in production on the mound and at the plate leans heavily in Seattle’s favor this evening. As a result, we agree with our model that the Mariners can get back on track with a win tonight.

Peterson’s inability to throw the ball in the zone is a huge concern when going against Seattle. The Mariners have proven they can draw walks, and when you combine that with an offense that posted a 164 wRC+, .417 BABIP, and .937 OPS against lefties in August, you have a recipe for runs.

Castillo should continue his dominance against an average offense, but Peterson will likely fall back to Earth. Our model thinks Seattle should be a -170 favorite here, so we’ll take them at -125.

The Play: Mariners ML (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 72-63 overall this season, 27-17 against division opponents (Play NL Central rival Cincinnati today)

• Seattle Mariners- 76-58 overall this season, 37-29 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Texas Rangers- 75-59 overall this season, 42-25 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 78-54-3 this season, 45-21-1 as the home team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 70-57-9 this season, 37-28-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 85-52 overall this season, 29-15 as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤒 Hunter Greene, two other pitchers put on COVID-19 list. Cincinnati Reds right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, along with two other pitchers, has been placed on the COVID-19 injured list, and he will be sidelined for at least a week. Reds manager David Bell mentioned that Greene could potentially return after seven days as long as he continues to improve. This comes after Greene recently made a successful comeback from a hip injury, and he had a strong outing in his last appearance against the Giants.

💥 Jasson Dominguez goes yard in first MLB at-bat. Jasson Domínguez, known as "The Martian," made an electrifying debut in the big leagues, hitting an opposite-field two-run homer off Justin Verlander, immediately justifying the immense hype surrounding him. The 20-year-old outfielder's first-inning home run was one of four hit by the Yankees off Verlander, leading to a 6-2 victory over the Astros. Domínguez's remarkable debut showcased his talent, and he is now poised to establish himself as the Yankees' starting center fielder.

🐅 Miguel Cabrera moves up all-time hits list. The Detroit Tigers secured a 4-2 victory over the Chicago White Sox, improving their record to 61-74, while the White Sox dropped to 53-82. Tigers icon Miguel Cabrera, who is set to retire at the end of the year, contributed with a 2-for-4 performance, further enhancing his career hit total to 3,154 hits, tying him with George Brett for 17th on the all-time list. Despite playing a part-time role and lacking power this season, Cabrera remains a highly accomplished right-handed hitter in baseball history, boasting a lifetime .307 batting average, 510 home runs, and an array of accolades.

🇺🇸 USA picks up another win at FIBA World Cup. In a challenging matchup during the 2023 FIBA World Cup, Team USA secured an 85-73 victory against Montenegro in Manila. After dominating their group stage with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points, the Americans faced a resilient Montenegro team led by Nikola Vucevic. Although Team USA struggled initially, they managed to pull ahead in the third quarter and secure their spot in the quarterfinals with one more second-round game against Lithuania remaining.

➕ ACC set to add three more schools in 2024. The Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) is set to expand to 18 schools following a unanimous vote by the conference's board of directors, welcoming Stanford, Southern Methodist University (SMU), and the University of California-Berkeley. These new members will have full voting privileges starting from July 2024, and they will begin competing in ACC sports during the 2024/25 academic year. The departure of Stanford and California from the Pac-12 leaves the latter with only two remaining members, Oregon State and Washington State.

🏈 Jalen Milroe named Alabama starter for Week 1. Alabama's Jalen Milroe is set to be the starting quarterback in the season opener against Middle Tennessee, per Alabama head coach Nick Saban. Milroe, a redshirt sophomore, won the quarterback competition during preseason, edging out Tyler Buchner, Ty Simpson, and Dylan Lonergan. While Milroe impressed with his athleticism and arm strength, it's noted that he isn't necessarily locked in as the starter for the entire season, and his accuracy was a focus during the offseason.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Russell Westbrook holds the NBA record for career triple-doubles, but three players rank higher than him when it comes to playoff triple-doubles. Can you name all three players?

Question #2- Eight players in NFL history have rushed for over 2,000 yards in a season, with two doing so as a member of the Tennessee Titans. Who were those two players?

Question #3- Sidney Crosby is the youngest player in NHL history to record 100 points in a season, doing so at just 18 years old. How many times has Crosby reached the 100 point milestone in his career?

Anyone know what has happened on September 2nd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 2nd…

1962- St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Stan Musial records his 3,516th career hits in a 4-3 loss to the New York Mets. The hit enabled Musial to surpass Tris Speaker on the all-time list, putting him in second place behind only Ty Cobb. Musial would end his career with 3,630 hits, good enough to rank him fourth all-time behind Pete Rose, Cobb, and Hank Aaron.

1965- Chicago Cubs slugger Ernie Banks hits his 400th career home run in a 5-3 win against the St. Louis Cardinals. Banks’ milestone homer came against Cardinals pitcher Curt Simmons, who coincidentally was the same pitcher that Willie Mays hit his 400th home run against two years prior. Banks would end his Hall of Fame career with 512 home runs, ranking him 23rd all-time.

1978- New York Yankees right fielder Reggie Jackson hits his 20th home run of the season in a 6-2 win over the Seattle Mariners. Hitting 20 homers in a single season was quite common for Jackson, so common that he became the 19th player in MLB history to hit 20 homers in 11 straight seasons. He would end his 21-year career with 16 seasons of at least 20 home runs, with his last one coming in 1985.

1. Magic Johnson, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic

2. Chris Johnson, Derrick Henry

3. 6