In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-5

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6

Run Line Predictions: 7-5

3-star Predictions: 1-0

⚡️ Chargers back up the Brinks truck for Justin Herbert. The Los Angeles Chargers signed Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert to a multi-year extension on Tuesday that will keep the former Oregon Duck with the team through the 2029 season. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Herbert’s extension is for five years and worth up to $262.5 million, a deal that could reportedly include up to $218.7 million in guarantees. The 25-year-old is now the fourth quarterback in NFL history to top the $50 million per year mark, joining Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Aaron Rodgers.

💰 Cowboys sign Trevon Diggs to five-year extension. Another NFL start joined Justin Herbert yesterday in getting a five-year extension, with that player being Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs. Per Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network, Diggs’ deal with Dallas is worth $97 million with $42.3 million guaranteed, but the two-time Pro Bowl selection can earn up to $104 million with incentives. Diggs, a former 2021 second-round pick out of the University of Alabama, is now the fifth-highest paid cornerback in the NFL, a fair price for a guy that has collected 17 interceptions in 45 career games.

🍎 Saquon Barkley ends short holdout, signs one-year deal to stay in the Big Apple. New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who fell victim to the franchise tag, signed his tag Tuesday and will stay a New York Giant for the time being. The former Penn State product’s deal is reportedly worth up to $11 million, which includes $909,000 in incentives and an additional $2 million in the form of a signing bonus. Despite tallying 1,650 total yards and 10 touchdowns last season, Barkley was unable to secure a long-term extension, and per Mike Garafolo, the Giants can franchise tag the tailback again in 2024.

☘️ Jaylen Brown will stay in Boston, signs richest deal in NBA history. Boston Celtics guard/forward Jaylen Brown became a very wealthy man on Tuesday afternoon, signing a five-year extension worth up to $304 million, per Marc J. Spears. Brown’s deal is the richest contract in NBA history, surpassing the five-year, $270 million extension signed by Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic last summer. The 26-year-old is coming off a season in which he averaged a career high 26.6 points per game, and now is rewarded with a $52.3 million salary for the 2024-25 season and will be paid nearly $70 million for the 2028-29 season.

🙏 Bronny James in stable condition after suffering a cardiac arrest. Bronny James, son of NBA legend and current Los Angeles Laker LeBron James, reportedly suffered a cardiac arrest during a practice on Monday morning, per Shams Charania. The USC commit was taken to the hospital following the collapse, but is said to be in stable condition and no longer in the ICU. James, who was ranked as the No.20 recruit in the class of 2023 according to ESPN, is the second incoming USC freshman to suffer a cardiac event in the last year after Vincent Iwuchukwu had a similar scare last July.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 12:05 PM ET. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, Under 9, Phillies +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies will finish off an exciting three-game series on Wednesday night in the City of Brotherly Love.

Baltimore took Game 1 on Monday by a score of 3-2, but a ninth inning collapse by star reliever Yennier Cano last night allowed Philadelphia to score two runs in the bottom of the ninth to even the series.

Despite last night’s loss, the Orioles are 8-4 since the All-Star break, and our model is leaning towards Baltimore to pick up its ninth win in that stretch. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will the Phillies build on last night’s comeback and win their second game in as many days?

Baltimore Orioles

It is hard to find anything bad to say about the Orioles. Baltimore enters today’s matchup with a 62-39 record, good enough for first place in the AL East division and tied with Tampa Bay for the second-most wins in baseball in 2023.

The Orioles find themselves at the top of their division after winning three of four games against the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, a small glimpse at just how dominant this team has been in recent weeks.

Where Baltimore has separated itself from the pack is at the plate, particularly against left-handed pitching. According to FanGraphs, the O’s own a 131 wRC+ against southpaws since play resumed after the All-Star break, the fourth-best mark in the majors in that time. That has been accompanied by a .841 OPS and .327 BABIP, further showing Baltimore’s effectiveness in those situations.

The starting pitching has given the Orioles a boost too. Baltimore’s starters own a 3.51 ERA in the month of July, oftentimes establishing the foundation for the bullpen, a group that owns a 3.63 ERA and 3.65 xFIP this month even after last night’s collapse.

Kyle Bradish (6-5 record, 3.05 ERA) will be in charge of providing more stability on the mound this evening. Bradish is vulnerable to some hard contact, as evidenced by a 44.4% Hard Hit rate, but that has not deterred him from posting a 1.07 ERA and 1.04 WHIP since July 1st.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies always find a way to go from the hottest team in baseball to the coldest in the blink of an eye, and a lot of it has to do with the Philadelphia’s batting splits.

Philadelphia can’t seem to find a rhythm against right-handed pitching this season, posting a 96 wRC+ and 23.5% strikeout rate. Those numbers have gotten far worse since the All-Star break, a stretch where Philly owns a 69 wRC+ and 25.6% strikeout rate while facing righties.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s wRC+ against lefties since the break comes in at 132, the fifth-best in the major leagues.

Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Kyle Bradish is a right-handed pitcher, and four of Baltimore’s top-five bullpen arms are righties as well. That likely puts the Phillies in a tough spot at the plate throughout today’s matchup.

Left-handed pitcher Ranger Suárez (2-5 record, 4.07 ERA) will get the start tonight for Philly, a guy who has been consistently hit around in July.

Suárez owns a 6.14 ERA and 5.07 xFIP this month, the lowest marks among the Phillies’ starting rotation. One major problem for the southpaw is that he doesn’t generate many swings and misses, ranking in the bottom 27% of the majors in Whiff rate and bottom 39% in strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

What’s the Play?

The first two matchups in this series have been tightly contested. However, we agree with our model that they Orioles can bounce back this evening and pick up another victory.

The batting splits favor Baltimore by a significant margin in this one. The Orioles’ ability to consistently attack left-handed pitching has been the difference since the All-Star break, and we think the O’s will build on that momentum against a struggling Suárez, who is capable of being sized up (9.2% Barrel rate).

Our model thinks the Orioles should be favorites today with odds hovering around -130, so we’ll take Baltimore at -105.

3-star play: Orioles ML (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 62-39 overall this season, 32-19 as the home team

• Los Angeles Angels- 52-49 overall this season, 6-1 in last seven games

• Chicago Cubs- 49-51 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games, 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado Rockies- Under is 59-42 this season, 33-19 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 53-47-4 this season, 32-22-1 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 56-42-4 this season, 6-2 in last eight games against the Cincinnati Reds

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 67-36 overall this season, 30-11 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

📦 Boston ships Enrique Hernandez to Los Angeles. The Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to a trade that will send centerfielder Enrique “Kiké” Hernandez to the West Coast in exchange for relief pitchers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman. Per Alex Speier, the Red Sox are sending $2.5 million to L.A. alongside Hernanadez, which will cover more than half of his remaining salary. Hernandez is in the midst of a career-worst season, batting .222 with six home runs and 31 RBIs, but perhaps returning to Los Angeles, where he played from 2015-2020, can revitalize the 31-year-old.

🤔 Could Aaron Judge be back in the lineup this weekend? New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge has been sidelined with a toe injury since early June after running into the right-field wall at Dodgers Stadium, but it appears that the AL MVP could be returning to the lineup soon. Judge has started playing simulated games at the Yankees’ training complex, and manager Aaron Boone said that his status is now “day to day”. The 31-year-old was batting .291 with 19 home runs and 41 RBIs before going down, and Judge’s offensive presence would be a massive help to a Yankees team that has gone 17-24 since his injury.

⛸ Patrice Bergeron is hanging up the skates for good. Boston Bruins legend Patrice Bergeron is officially hanging up his skates, retiring from the game of hockey after 19 seasons in the NHL. Bergeron, who suited for Boston his entire career, provided Bruins fans with several memories over the years, including his role in Boston’s Stanley Cup Finals victory in 2011. The 38-year-old retires with 427 goals and 1,040 points to his name, ranking him third in Bruins history in both categories.

🐆 Panthers sign Eetu Luostarinen to three-year extension. The Florida Panthers and forward Eetu Luostarinen have come to terms on a three-year, $9 million extension that is set to begin at the start of the 2024-25 season. The 24-year-old has one season remaining on his current contract, but was set to become a restricted free agent next summer. Luostarinen is coming off a season in which he scored a career-high 17 goals and 43 points in 82 contests, adding five points during Florida’s Stanley Cup Final run.

😳 Jim Harbaugh could miss first month of season. Michigan football head coach John Harbaugh could find himself suspended to begin the 2023 season. Per Ross Dellenger, the NCAA is working towards a resolution that would see the Wolverines’ coach serve a four-game suspension after failing to comply with investigators during a recruiting investigation, which includes contacting recruits during dead periods and using video feeds to watch players work out. The NCAA claims Harbaugh was not honest with them during the early stages of the investigation, while Harbaugh claims to not remember the incident.

Today’s trivia requires you to go back to 2006. We’ve given you the logos of the top five home run hitters for the 2006 MLB season, and it is your job to guess all five players.

As always, answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Anyone know what has happened on July 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On July 26th…

1957- New York Yankees outfielder Mickey Mantle hits his 200th career home run in a 3-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers. Mantle was just one of two Yankees players to tally a hit on a day that saw very little offense from both sides, joining star catcher Yogi Berra in sending a baseball into the stands that day. Mantle would go on to more than double his home run total after reaching 200, retiring with 536 homers, a total that places the Hall of Fame outfielder 18th on the MLB’s all-time list.

1988- Philadelphia Phillies legend Mike Schmidt sets the National League record for games played at third base with 2,155. Schmidt would end his career with 2,212 appearances in the hot corner, the sixth-most in MLB history. Schmidt’s NL record is still standing, but the league’s current record is held by Baltimore Orioles third baseman Brooks Robinson with 2,870, all of which came in the American League.

1992- MLB legend Nolan Ryan strikes out his 100th batter for a 23rd consecutive season, the longest streak in MLB history. Arguably the most dominant pitcher in league history, Ryan set the record while playing for four different MLB teams across those 23 seasons, the New York Mets, California Angels, Houston Astros, and Texas Rangers. Ryan’s record still stands to this day, but he extended it to 24 after another dominant season in 1993, the last season of his career.

1. Ryan Howard

2. David Ortiz

3. Albert Pujols

4. Alphonso Soriano

5. Lance Berkman