In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-6

Over/Under Predictions: 9-5

Run Line Predictions: 5-8

3-star Predictions: 1-0

Today we have one NBA game scheduled to take place, with that matchup being Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets. The series was tied 1-1 after two games, but Denver secured two victories in Miami and is now one win away from winning its first NBA title in franchise history.

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

Model Predicts- Nuggets ML, OVER 209, Nuggets -9

The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will square off in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night in the Mile High City.

Miami managed to win one game when the series was last in Denver, but the Nuggets avenged the loss by sweeping Miami in South Beach. As a result, the series is now 3-1 in favor of Denver, making tonight the first opportunity for the Nuggets to close out the series.

Denver has never won an NBA championship since being established in 1967, but our model likes that to change tonight. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or do the Heat still have some gas left in the tank?

Miami Heat

What Miami has done in the postseason has been remarkable. From nearly getting bounced in the Play-In Tournament to becoming the first No.8 seed to make the NBA Finals since 1999, this Heat team has defied the odds since day one.

However, the Nuggets have proven to be an entirely different monster from those Miami has crossed paths with this postseason, and we are catching glimpses as to why the Heat were an eight seed to begin with.

Per NBA.com, the Miami Heat owned a 116.1 Offensive Rating through the first three rounds of the postseason. That rating came across an 18 game span, a rather large sample size that shows significant improvement from Miami’s regular season rating of 112.3.

However, Miami’s Offensive Rating has slid to just 108.6 in the Finals. It’s rather obvious that the Nuggets are the better team, but a nearly 8.0-point drop per 100 possessions on the offensive end is staggering.

That decrease in rating comes as a result of Miami shooting just 42.4% from the floor in this series, down from 47.7% in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami is struggling to score in the paint as well, averaging 38.0 points per game, further proving that buckets are hard to come by.

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have a home court advantage that no other team in the NBA has. Being at a high altitude certainly puts opposing teams in a tough spot when visiting Denver, a big reason why the Nuggets owned a 34-7 home record in the regular season and are 9-1 at home in the playoffs.

As a result, we have seen Denver become a lockdown team on the defensive end while at home. NBA.com has the Nuggets listed with a 108.8 home Defensive Rating in the postseason, the second best among the 16 postseason teams. Comparatively, Denver’s road Defensive Rating in the postseason comes in at 113.6, a significant increase that shows how much better this team is at home.

The offensive production doesn’t change much though. Denver’s Offensive rating at home in the postseason is 118.8 while on the road it’s 119.8. The balance on the offensive end has been a sight to behold, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Nuggets dominate at home, where the defense improves.

That balance mainly results from Denver’s ability to shoot the three ball, an area of the floor where the Nuggets are shooting 38.5% from in 19 postseason games. Combine that with scoring 52.0 points per game in the paint over the last three games, and you have a recipe for a dominant offensive attack.

What’s the Play?

The Miami Heat have had a great playoff run. However, we agree with our model that the NBA season likely ends tonight and we think Denver can cover the spread as well.

The Denver Nuggets have dominated this series from almost every angle, with each of its three victories coming by double digits. The only loss was a result of Miami shooting 49% from three, but the Heat have not shot better than 33% in any other game this series.

Miami will need another 50% three-point shooting performance to have a chance here, and we just don’t see that happening again against a Denver defense that is elite at home. We like Denver on the spread tonight.

3-star play: Nuggets -9 (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Miami Heat- 15-9 overall in postseason, 7-5 as the away team

• Denver Nuggets- 15-4 overall in postseason, 9-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Miami Heat- Over is 12-10 overall in postseason, 1-3 overall in NBA Finals

• Denver Nuggets- Over is 9-10 overall in postseason, 4-6 as the home team

Spread Trends➕➖

• Miami Heat- 14-8 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 9-3 ATS as the away team

• Denver Nuggets- 12-7 ATS in postseason, 6-4 ATS as the home team

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets

• Miami Heat

  • Tyler Herro (OUT), Victor Oladipo (OUT)

• Denver Nuggets

  • Colin Gillespie (OUT)

☘️ Charles Lee to join Celtics coaching staff. Milwaukee Bucks assistant Charles Lee is reportedly coming close to a deal to become the top assistant on the Boston Celtics coaching staff, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Lee has been with the Bucks since 2018, promoting him to associate head coach in 2022. However, the dismissal of Mike Budenholzer in May left Lee at a crossroads, with new head coach Adrian Griffin beginning to clean house. Luckily, Lee was being heavily considered for several of the vacant head coaching positions, and will now join a staff that also added former Philadelphia 76ers assistant Sam Cassell just last week.

🤕 Still no signs of Tyler Herro. It was believed that Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro would make an appearance during the NBA Finals, but that has yet to be the case. Herro broke his hand during Miami’s Round 1 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and has been sitting on the sideline ever since. He has resumed practicing but has yet to be cleared to play, so even if the Heat avoid elimination in Game 5 we still likely will not see Herro in the series. The former Kentucky guard averaged 20.1 points per game on 37.8% shooting from three during the regular season.

🙅‍♂️ Connor Hellebuyck not interested in extension with Winnipeg. The 2023 offseason continues to be a disaster for the Winnipeg Jets. It started off with star center Pierre-Luc Dubois requesting a trade, and things went from bad to worse when Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck told the franchise that he isn’t interested in signing an extension with the team. Hellebuyck has one year remaining on his contract and is eligible for an extension on July 1st, but the recent news makes him a likely trade candidate heading into the summer. The 30-year-old has been with Winnipeg since 2012 and has been the regular starter since 2016, leading the Jets to the postseason for five of the last six seasons.

📆 Countdown to the NHL Draft. There are 16 days standing between us and the NHL Draft on June 28th, one of the more exciting events of the hockey calendar. The draft will take place in Nashville, Tennessee this year, with the Chicago Blackhawks currently holding the No.1 overall pick. It is close to guaranteed that Chicago will select 17-year-old Connor Bedard with that pick, who is already drawing comparisons to Oilers star Connor McDavid after tallying 271 points in 134 games while playing in the WHL. Anaheim, Columbus, San Jose, and Montreal round out the top five picks.

There are eight MLB games scheduled to take place on Monday. However, due to the Braves/Tigers game not having odds available when the model was run, our model has predictions for seven of today’s matchups.

There are no 3-star plays in the MLB today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Texas Rangers- 41-23 overall this season, 21-9 as the home team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 48-20 overall this season, 17-13 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- 31-33 overall this season, 17-15 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 36-28-2 this season, 21-11-1 as the home team

• Los Angeles Angels- Over is 32-31-4 this season, 17-13-3 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 37-25-2 this season, 19-9-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 41-23 this season, 14-8 as a home favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🔥 Oakland finds the win column for the fifth game in a row. One week ago the Oakland Athletics couldn’t buy a win, now the A’s are buying real estate in the win column. The A’s have won five straight games following a sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, the team’s first sweep of the 2023 season. Even with the win streak Oakland owns a 17-50 record and is 25.5 games back of first place in the AL West, but all of a sudden A’s fans have something to cheer about as they start to shake the status of the “MLB’s worst team”.

🔟 Shane McClanahan becomes first pitcher to reach 10 wins. Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan has dominated on the mound all season, resulting in his tenth win of the 2023 season on Sunday in a 7-3 victory over to the Texas Rangers. McClanahan hit a small speed bump when he surrendered three runs in the third inning, but those would be the only runners to cross the plate for Texas. The 26-year-old now owns a 2.18 ERA and is already closing in on his 2022 win total of 12.

🙌 Who doesn’t love a comeback victory? Come from behind wins are bound to happen in a 162 game MLB season, but they came in bunches on Sunday. The Diamondbacks got things started, scoring five runs in the final two innings to defeat the Tigers 7-5. Toronto was up next, with a three-run home run from Cavan Biggio in the bottom of the eighth giving the Blue Jays a 7-6 lead and eventually the win. Miami and Colorado got in on the action as well, with the Marlins scoring five runs in the final two frames against the White Sox and Colorado scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Padres following a rain delay. Our model loved a majority of those comebacks, going 3-1 with money line predictions across those four games after looking like it would go 0-4.

🇨🇦 Nick Taylor wins Canadian Open. Canadian Nick Taylor defended his home turf on Sunday, defeating Tommy Fleetwood in a four-hole playoff to win the Canadian Open. Both Taylor and Fleetwood finished the fourth round at 17-under par, beginning the first two playoff holes with birdies and trading pars on the third. Taylor would then go on to sink a 72-foot putt for eagle on the fourth playoff hole, giving the Canadian his third PGA Tour victory of his career. Taylor also became the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open since 1954, writing history on his way to victory.

🎾 Djokovic wins 23rd Grand Slam with French Open win. Novak Djokovic defeated Casper Ruud in the French Open final on Sunday, giving Djokovic his 23rd Grand Slam singles championship. The win set a new record, helping Djokovic break a tie with Rafael Nadal and put the legend three in front of Roger Federer. Djokovic has now won the French Open three times in his career (2016, 2021, 2023), adding one more trophy to a case that has seen 10 trophies from the Australian Open, seven from Wimbledon, and three from the U.S. Open in addition to his prior French Open victories.

🥊 Amanda Nunes retires from the UFC. UFC legend Amanda Nunes announced her retirement from the UFC following her victory over Irene Aldana on Saturday. Nunes is not only considered to be the greatest female fighter in UFC history, but one of the best to ever step into the octagon regardless of gender. She is just one of four simultaneous two-division champions in UFC history, joining Daniel Cormier, Henry Cejudo, and Conor McGregor on the list. Nunes retires with a 23-5 career record and having won 14 of her last 15 fights.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1993 / Round 1 / Pick 3 / Golden State Warriors

Player 2- 2003 / Round 2 / Pick 51 / New Jersey Nets

Player 3- 2009 / Round 1 / Pick 2 / Memphis Grizzlies

Player 1- 2001 / Round 1 / Pick 1 / Atlanta Falcons

Player 2- 2014 / Round 1 / Pick 7 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player 3- 2016 / Round 1 / Pick 2 / Philadelphia Eagles

Anyone know what has happened on June 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day, especially in the NBA Finals.

On June 12th…

1979- The Detroit Tigers fire manager Les Moss, replacing him with Sparky Anderson. Anderson spent time with the Cincinnati Reds before joining the Detroit, where he would lead the Reds to back-to-back World Series victories in 1975 and 1976. Anderson would win another World Series with the Tigers in 1984, making him the first manager to win a World Series with an American and National League team. Anderson’s career ended with 2,194 wins, the sixth most by a manager in MLB history.

1991- The Chicago Bulls defeat the Los Angeles Lakers 108-101 in Game 5 of the NBA Finals, crowning the Bulls as NBA Champions. The win marked the first of three straight NBA titles from 1991-1993, and Chicago would go on to win three more from 1996-1998. Unsurprisingly, Michael Jordan was named Finals MVP, the first of six he would win in his career.

2002- The Los Angeles Lakers sweep the New Jersey Nets to win the NBA Finals. Los Angeles entered the postseason with a 58-24 record and the No.3 seed in the West, while New Jersey was 52-30 and the No.1 seed in the East. The victory was the third Finals victory in a row for the Lakers, and it was also the third year in a row that Shaquille O’Neal was named Finals MVP.

2017- The Golden State Warriors defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games to win the NBA Finals. It was the first time in NBA history that the same teams had met in the Finals in three consecutive seasons. Golden State and Cleveland would also meet in the Finals in 2018, resulting in a 4-0 series win for the Warriors.

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NBA Answers

1. Penny Hardaway

2. Kyle Korver

3. Hasheem Thabeet

NFL Answers

1. Michael Vick

2. Mike Evans

3. Carson Wentz