In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-4

Over/Under Predictions: 4-8

Run Line Predictions: 6-6

3-star Predictions: 0-1

👮‍♂️ Henry Ruggs III sentenced to 3-10 years in prison. Former Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Henry Ruggs III was sentenced to a minimum of three years in Nevada prison on Wednesday. The sentencing comes nearly two years after Ruggs was driving his car at speeds up to 156 mph while under the influence of alcohol, resulting in the death of a woman and her dog. “I have no excuses,” Ruggs told the courtroom, later stating that after prison he wishes to counsel others about the dangers of high-speed driving and driving while under the influence.

❌ Kareem Hunt leaves Indianapolis without a deal. Free agent running back has been traveling the country all week taking visits with various teams, but his most recent visit to Indianapolis ended without a deal. The Colts reportedly offered a Hunt a contract for the upcoming season as the status of Jonathan Taylor becomes more uncertain, but the two sides could not come to an agreement following additional negotiations. However, Hunt is still receiving interest from a plethora of teams around the league, including the New Orleans Saints, where Hunt completed a visit earlier this week.

🥊 Elgton Jenkins removed from Packers-Bengals joint practice. Green Bay Packers left guard Elgton Jenkins was escorted out of the joint practice between the Packers and Bengals on Wednesday. Jenkins reportedly punched Bengals defensive tackle D.J. Reader following a confrontation, the second fight that Jenkins played a role in yesterday. Jenkins’ removal didn’t appear to stop the drama though, as Reader took to Twitter to cal the two-time Pro Bowler “just another guy”.

There are just eight MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. Our model predictions for all eight matchups can be seen below.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 9, Phillies -1.5

The Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies will close out a four-game series on Thursday evening at Citizens Bank Park.

Washington enters tonight’s game with a 50-65 record, placing the Nats in fifth place in the NL East. Meanwhile, Philadelphia owns a 63-52 record and owns the top wild card spot in the National League.

Michael Lorenzen led the Phillies to their 14th no-hitter in franchise history last night, and our model likes the Phillies to win today’s matchup again by a sizable margin. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or will Washington bounce back from a poor performance last night?

Washington Nationals

Last night’s showing was one that the Nationals would like to forget. Washington failed to record a hit against Michael Lorenzen despite managing four baserunners, while simultaneously surrendering seven runs to their division rival.

Six of the seven runs scored by Philadelphia yesterday came in the first four innings, something that has been a common theme for teams against the Nationals in recent weeks.

According to FanGraphs, Washington’s starting pitchers own a 7.08 ERA in the month of August, the third-worst mark in the major leagues. That ERA has spiked to 10.14 in this series against Philadelphia, with each of Washington’s starters surrendering at least four earned runs before the Nationals turn to the bullpen.

Luckily, that bullpen owns a 1.19 ERA and 3.64 xFIP since August 1st, but the Nationals can’t seem to get out of their own way in the early stages of the game.

We’re likely to see more of the same tonight with Patrick Corbin (7-11 record, 5.03 ERA) set to make the start for Washington. The left-hander allows contact at one of the highest clips in the major leagues, entering today’s matchup ranked in the bottom 10% of the majors in Whiff and strikeout rate (15.2%). That contact is oftentimes hard contact, forcing Corbin to post a 45% Hard Hit rate and .313 xBA.

Philadelphia Phillies

The 2023 World Series runner ups are in a position to make it back to the postseason, entering today in the top spot in the National League wild card race thanks to winning 10 of their last 15 games.

A big factor in Philly’s recent success has been its consistency, and tiny bit of luck, at the plate. FanGraphs has the Phillies posting a 114 wRC+ in the last 15 games, which has coincided with a tremendous .312 BABIP. Unfortunately though, Philly has record the eighth highest ground ball rate (44.7%) and simultaneously ranks in the bottom 12 in Hard Hit rate (33.5%) in that same timeframe, showing that the offense has had some luck on its side during this stretch.

That luck has certainly been present against left-handed pitching, a situation in which Philly has seen its ground ball rate spike to 51.1% across the last 15 games. The Phillies still own a .330 BABIP and 110 wRC+ against southpaws in that time though, so this offense is making things happen without getting the ball in the air often.

Aaron Nola (9-8 record, 4.58 ERA) will get the start tonight for Philadelphia, which means Philly’s hot bats will have be present for at least one more game.

Nola’s biggest problem this season is his vulnerability to barrel contact, posting the highest barrel rate of his career at 8.4%. That has made Nola susceptible to quite a bit of home runs this season, surrendering at least one homer in 17 of his 21 starts. In fact, he has let five baseballs fly out of the park across his last 17.0 innings, leading to a 6.88 ERA in that time.

What’s the Play?

There has been quite a bit of luck of the Phillies’ side in recent weeks, which may mean we see them cool off in the near future. However, we don’t think that cooldown will begin today with Corbin on the mound for Washington, leading us to agree with our model on the over in this matchup.

All of the hard contact surrendered by Corbin has led to a 6.34 xERA, more than 1.30 runs higher than his season ERA. That indicates Corbin is due for some regression despite already being one of the worst pitchers in the majors, and he draws a tough matchup today against Philly.

Cross your fingers, but we don’t forecast the Nationals getting no-hit for the second day in a row, and a struggling Nola gives the Nats a chance to score in bunches.

We’ll be backing the over in this one, which has hit in three of Corbin’s last four starts and all three of Nola’s last three starts.

The Play: Over 9 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 66-49 overall this season, 35-24 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Toronto Blue Jays- 65-51 overall this season, 35-27 as the away team

• Tampa Bay Rays- 69-47 overall this season, 38-20 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 64-46-6 this season, 32-28-2 as the away team, 3-0 in series with Cleveland

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 66-46-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 66-41-6 this season, 29-22-3 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 70-44 overall this season, 10-5 as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Michael Lorenzen throws no-hitter against Washington. The Philadelphia Phillies made a move to acquire Michael Lorenzen from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, and that move has already paid dividends. Lorenzen had the best outing of his career last night against the Washington Nationals, throwing the first no-hitter of his career and the 14th no-no in Phillies franchise history. The 31-year-old All-Star has been a stud in his short time in Philly, allowing just six hits and two runs across 17.0 innings in his first two starts with the team.

📖 Shohei Ohtani continues to make history. Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani wrote his name in the history books once again last night. Ohtani became the first player in MLB history to record 10 wins as a pitcher and 40 home runs as a hitter in the same season in the Angels’ 4-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants. He also passed Babe Ruth to become the only player to record 10 wins and 10 homers in multiple seasons. Ohtani is now 10-5 on the year with a 3.17 ERA, and his 40 homers are the most in the league.

🍎 Josh Hart signs deal to stay in the Big Apple. Josh Hart and the New York Knicks came to terms on a four-year $81 million contract extension on Wednesday, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Hart, a former Villanova Wildcat who was acquired by New York at last season’s trade deadline from the Portland Trail Blazers, will earn a total of $94 million through the 2027-28 season with the extension. Hart averaged 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 3.6 assists across 25 games with the Knicks last season, and will now have a chance to bring New York back to the postseason alongside former Villanova teammates Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo.

☀️ Suns sending two additional jerseys to the rafters. The Phoenix Suns have retired ten numbers in franchise history, but the team is set to retire two more in the near future. The Suns announced on Wednesday that they will retire No.31 and No.32, which belonged to Shawn Merion and Amar‘e Stoudemire during their days in Phoenix. Merion, who played nine seasons in Phoenix, and Stoudemire, who played eight seasons in Phoenix, will be the 16th and 17th players to be inducted into the Suns’ Ring of Honor as well, a tremendous celebration for two of the greatest players in Suns history.

🍁 Maple Leafs add depth in net, sign Martin Jones. The Toronto Maple Leafs boosted their goaltending depth even more on Wednesday, signing Martin Jones to a one-year, $875,000 contract. The signing was made as a form of insurance behind Ilya Samsonov and Joseph Woll, who currently occupy the top-two goaltending spots on the depth chart. Jones is coming off a season in which he posted a 27-13-3 record with the Seattle Kraken, but his .886 save percentage ranked 90th out of the 107 qualified goaltenders last season.

Today’s trivia requires you to have some knowledge on nicknames. We’ve listed the nicknames of five former and current NBA players, and it is your job to guess who those players are.

1. The Admiral

2. The Ice Man

3. The Round Mound of Rebound

4. Latvian Laser

5. Slim Reaper

Anyone know what has happened on August 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 10th…

1985- Oakland Athletics slugger Dave Kingman hits his 400th career home run in a 11-5 victory over the Seattle Mariners. Kingman hit the homer off Matt Young, giving him his 23rd home run of the season. The dinger also made Kingman just the 21st player in MLB history to reach the 400 home run milestone, and his 442 career home runs ranks him 43rd on the MLB’s all-time list.

2008- American swimmer Michael Phelps wins the gold medal in the 400 meter individual medley at the Beijing Olympics, setting a new world record in the process. That race was just the tip of the iceberg for what Phelps would accomplish at the 2008 Olympics, an event where he won eight gold medals and set seven world records. The eight gold medals were the most won by an individual at a single Olympic games, and Phelps would end his career with an incredible 23 gold medals on his way to becoming the most accomplished Olympian ever.

2014- Rory McIlroy defeats Phil Mickelson by one stroke at the PGA Championship, the second time the Northern Irishman won the event. McIlroy was in the lead for a majority of the tournament, lowering his score to 9-under par after the second round and never looking back. He would go on to shoot 7-under par across the final 36 holes, giving McIlroy his fourth career major victory and second of the season after winning the Open Championship a few weeks prior.

1. David Robinson

2. George Gervin

3. Charles Barkley

4. Davis Bertans

5. Kevin Durant