In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-4

Over/Under Predictions: 4-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 5-5

Featured Matchup: 1-0

✍️Colin Kaepernick writes letter to Jets. Colin Kaepernick has formally requested to join the New York Jets' practice squad following the injury to their quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Kaepernick, who has not been on an NFL roster since 2017, made his request in a letter posted on Instagram by rapper J. Cole. In the letter addressed to Jets General Manager Joe Douglas, Kaepernick expressed his willingness to lead the practice squad and outlined his training regimen over the past six years, emphasizing his readiness to contribute to the team.

💰Taylor Swift impacting Travis Kelce’s already high jersey sales. Travis Kelce's NFL jerseys have seen a surge in demand following his public appearance with Taylor Swift. Fanatics, the NFL's e-commerce partner, reported a nearly 400% increase in Kelce's jersey sales on their network of sites, making him one of the top 5 selling NFL players. The boost in sales came after Swift was seen attending one of Kelce's games and rumors of their dating circulated, making the rumored relationship one of the hottest topics currently circulating.

💪 Packers get some reinforcements for TNF. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are set to make their return from hamstring injuries for the Green Bay Packers. Watson, who missed the first three games of the season, expects to debut against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, and Jones is also poised to return. While Packers coach Matt LaFleur expressed cautious optimism and clearance is still pending, the team anticipates their comeback as a boost to their offense, which has managed a 2-1 start despite their absence.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox

Model Predicts- Rays ML, OVER 8, Red Sox +1.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will close ut a short two-game series on Wednesday, the last meeting between the two squads this season.

Tampa Bay got the best of Boston in Game one, jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and eventually winning 9-7. The victory was only the fifth in the last ten games for Tampa Bay, and the loss was the third straight defeat for Boston.

The Red Sox sit five-games under .500 while the Rays are 34 games above .500, and our model thinks that skill gap will lead to a Rays win this evening. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays

• Solid at plate in September

  • Rank 10th in wRC+ (108), 9th in BABIP (.305), and 15th in OPS (.741), per FanGraphs

  • 29 total homers, 4.75 runs per game

• Haven’t found win column often recently, but offense has improved

  • wRC+ has risen to 111, BABIP to .325, and OPS to .748 in last ten games

• Pitching staff has led to fewer wins in last ten games

  • Lots of strikeouts- 11.12 K’s per nine innings

  • But, 5.16 ERA and .318 BABIP rank in bottom eight of MLB

• Tyler Glasnow (9-7 record, 4.11 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Tough sledding in last three starts- 8.34 ERA and 1.66 WHIP

  • 11.15 Ks per nine innings during that stretch is great, but is simultaneously allowing 1.76 HRs per nine innings

  • Dangerously vulnerable to hard contact and the barrel- ranks in bottom 11% of majors in Hard Hit rate (44.6%) and bottom 2% in Barrel rate (11.9%)

Boston Red Sox

• Have fallen off a cliff offensively this month

  • 82 wRC+, .688 OPS, and 4.17 runs per game

  • Dow own .307 BABIP this month though- 8th highest in MLB

• Have been worst offense in MLB over last 10 games

  • 63 wRC+, .284 BABIP, and .625 OPS

  • 3.00 runs per game

• Brayan Bello (12-10 record, 4.11 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 7.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP since September 1st

  • Doesn’t generate swings and misses- Ranks in bottom 40% of MLB in Strikeout rate (20.1%) and Whiff rate (24.7%)

  • Generates lots of ground balls, but vulnerable to hard contact

    • 44.1% Hard Hit rate, 89.6 mph average exit velocity allowed

What’s the Play?

It’s s a tough sell to back any bet involving the Boston Red Sox at the moment. However, we agree with our model that the over is the best way to go in this matchup.

Boston has been horrific at the plate, which has led to their elimination from the playoffs, but the Red Sox showed some signs of life in last night’s performance, recording 11 hits and seven runs. We think that momentum can carry over into today against Glasnow, especially when you consider how vulnerable he is to barrel contact.

Bello hasn’t faired well on the mound either, likely posing a problem against a Rays team that has only gotten better at the plate as the month has gone on. Bello also owns a 4.50 ERA against Tampa Bay this season.

We saw 16 runs scored in last night’s contest, making three of the last four matchups between these two teams double-digit scoring affairs. We’’ll back the high-scoring trend again today.

The Play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 96-62 overall this season, 28-20 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Boston today)

• Cincinnati Reds- 81-77 overall this season, 43-34 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 88-69 overall this season, 6-0 in last six games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 86-67-5 this season, 28-19-1 against division opponents

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 81-72-4 this season, 28-20 against division opponents

• San Diego Padres- Under is 82-67-9 this season, 6-1 in last seven games

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 95-63 overall this season, 45-22 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🙏 Brooks Robinson passes away at 86 years old. Brooks Robinson, the Hall of Fame third baseman known for his exceptional fielding skills and beloved presence in Baltimore, has passed away at the age of 86. Robinson, A.K.A “Mr. Oriole”, spent his entire 23-year career with the Baltimore Orioles and was a legendary figure in the city. He was a 16-time Gold Glove winner, won the 1964 AL Most Valuable Player award, and played a crucial role in the Orioles' 1970 World Series victory.

👏 Adam Wainwright makes retirement official. Adam Wainwright, the 42-year-old St. Louis Cardinals right-hander, has officially announced his retirement from baseball. After winning his 200th career game just eight days prior, Wainwright revealed that he has thrown his final pitch and is at peace with his decision to retire. Wainwright spent all 18 seasons of his career with the Cardinals, was a three-time All-Star, and played a crucial role in their 2006 World Series victory.

🤕 White Sox place Luis Robert Jr. on IL. The Chicago White Sox have placed All-Star outfielder Luis Robert Jr. on the 10-day injured list due to a mild MCL sprain in his left knee, effectively ending his career-best season. The team expects him to recover in two to four weeks, giving him ample time to prepare for the 2024 season. During this season, Robert achieved career highs in various statistical categories, including home runs, RBIs, runs, doubles, and steals, and expressed pride in his performance despite the team's struggles.

👎Travis Hunter to remain sidelined against USC. Despite Travis Hunter's strong desire to return to the field after suffering a lacerated liver injury on September 16, Colorado will have to play without him for the second consecutive game. Coach Deion Sanders shared a text message exchange in a team meeting where Hunter expressed his eagerness to play but was advised by Sanders to prioritize his health and future. After a tough loss to Oregon, Sanders emphasized the importance of learning from adversity and urged the team to focus on self-improvement as they prepare to face USC.

💪 Ben Simmons back to full strength. Former All-NBA player Ben Simmons is allegedly back to full strength and ready to take the court, according to Coach Jacque Vaughn and General Manager Sean Marks. Simmons is currently engaged in unrestricted 5-on-5 workouts, and should be ready for the start of training camp. Despite a challenging couple of seasons marked by injuries and a trade request, Simmons is optimistic about the upcoming season, with the hopes of reaching his All-NBA ways again.

🔥 Flames, Backlund discussing extension. The Calgary Flames are making progress in contract extension negotiations with Mikael Backlund. Backlund is now open to a longer-term commitment beyond the upcoming season, indicating a shift from his earlier stance of wanting to assess the season before discussing an extension. Backlund, who has spent his entire 15-year career with the Flames, is coming off a strong season and is entering the final year of his current contract.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Peyton Manning was the quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts from 1998-2011 before playing for what AFC West team for the remainder of his career?

Question #2- What second baseman has won the most Gold Glove awards in the history of the position?

Question #3- Brothers Daniel and Henrik Sedin were selected second and third overall in the 1997 NHL Draft by which team?

Anyone know what has happened on September 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 27th…

1961- MLB legend Sandy Koufax sets the National League record for strikeouts in a season with 269. That total would only be the record for a short period of time, as Koufax later recorded 306 punch outs in 1963 and 382 in 1965. Koufax would end his career with 2,396 strikeouts, ranking him 51st all-time.

1983- Tim Raines joins the 70 RBI and 70 stolen base club. Raines became the first player since Ty Cobb and the second in MLB history to record 70 RBIs and 70 stolen bases in the same season, with Rickey Henderson joining the club a few years later. Raines would finish his career with 980 RBIs and 808 stolen bases.

2005- The Atlanta Braves clinch their 11th consecutive NL East title. Atlanta has maintained those winning ways recently, winning their sixth consecutive NL East title just a few weeks ago. The Braves have now won 23 division titles since moving to Atlanta in 1969, the most in MLB history.

1. Denver Broncos

2. Roberto Alomar

3. Vancouver Canucks