In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by Shot Quality Bets…

There were no model predictions yesterday as it was an off day for us.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Run Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

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☘️ Boston DOMINATES Philadelphia in Game 7. The Boston Celtics will head to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday. Boston won the game by a score of 112-88, holding the 76ers to just 10 points in the third quarter and outscoring Philly 57-36 in the second half. Jayson Tatum led the way for Boston, scoring 51 points, the most ever in a Game 7, on 60% shooting overall and from behind the arc. Game 1 between the Celtics and Heat will take place on Wednesday in Boston.

🤦‍♂️ Ja Morant gets suspended again. One the NBA’s brightest young stars finds himself in the midst of controversy once again. If you recall, the Memphis Grizzlies suspended point guard Ja Morant for eight games during the regular season after flashing a gun in a video posted on social media. Well, Morant was suspended by the Grizzlies organization once again for the same incident, and according to Adrian Wojnarowski “is facing the real possibility of a lengthy suspension”.

🥾 Phoenix gives Monty Williams the boot. Phoenix Suns head coach Monty Williams was fired by the team following the Suns’ second round exit last week. Williams won the Coach of the Year award in 2021, leading the Suns to a stellar 64-18 record and an NBA Finals appearance. He posted a 194-115 record in four years with the Suns, but joins a laundry list of successful NBA coaches to get fired this offseason.

Only one NHL game is scheduled to take place today, but it should be a great one as the Kraken and Stars will face off in Game 7 of the Western Conference Semifinal. The winner of tonight’s matchup, which our model believes will be Dallas, will go on to face the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• Seattle Kraken- 7-6 overall in postseason, 4-3 as the away team

• Dallas Stars- 7-5 overall in postseason, 4-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends

• Seattle Kraken- Over is 7-6 in postseason, 6-0 in current series with average total of 8.17

• Dallas Stars- Over is 8-4 in postseason, 4-2 as the home team with average total of 6.83

Puck Line Trends

• Seattle Kraken- Puck line is 8-5 in postseason, 5-2 as the away team

• Dallas Stars- Puck line is 6-6 in postseason, 4-2 as the home team

Seattle Kraken @ Dallas Stars

• Seattle Kraken

  • Andre Burakovsky (OUT), Daniel Sprong (Dya-to-Day)

• Dallas Stars

  • No Players

🎉 Golden Knights win Game 6, advance to Western Conference Final. The Vegas Golden Knights took care of business once again in Game 6, sending the Edmonton Oilers packing after a 5-2 victory. Vegas was down 2-1 after the first period, but a second period hat trick from Jonathan Marchessault gave Vegas the lead and put things out of reach. Vegas became an official NHL team just six years ago, but with yesterday’s series win the Golden Knights have now appeared in the Western Conference in four of those six seasons.

🤫 Jack Hughes silences the haters. Jack Hughes was selected with the first overall pick of the 2019 NHL Draft by the New Jersey Devils, which obviously comes with tons of pressure. He came out of the gates slow, tallying 52 total points in his first 117 NHL games, causing many to label him as a bust. However, Hughes shattered his previous career highs this season, scoring 43 goals along with 56 assists in 78 games.

The MLB has scheduled 12 total games on this fine Monday. However, the lines for two of today’s matchups, Yankees/Blue Jays and Braves/Rangers, were not released at the time the model were run, leaving model predictions for ten of today’s matchups.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

Model Predicts- Giants ML, OVER 8.5, Giants +1.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants will kick off a three-game series on Monday night in the Bay Area.

Philadelphia enters tonight’s matchup with a 20-20 record, well short of where the defending National League Champions were expected to be. However, the Phillies have won five of their last six games so momentum seems to be building.

Meanwhile, the Giants are six games below .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, 8.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in first.

Neither one of these teams have gained much traction this season, but the pitching matchup appears to favor the Giants in this one. Will San Francisco use that to its advantage, or will we see the Phillies stay hot on the road?

Philadelphia Phillies

Bailey Falter (0-5 record, 5.75 ERA) is listed as the current starter for tonight’s matchup. However, he will not actually be the pitcher we see in the first inning.

Falter has struggled all year long with the top of the lineup, often getting torn apart early on. As a result, Falter isn’t set to take the mound until at least the second inning, with Philly hoping that it can limit the amount of damage the top of lineup does due to only seeing Falter once.

It’s a bold strategy, but clearly Philly needs to mix things up because Falter has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB this season.

So much damage has been done against Falter because he has lost a decent amount of velocity from last season. Per Baseball Savant his 4-seam fastball has dropped from 91.4 mph in 2022 to 90.5 this season, and his sinker has gone from 91.0 mph to 90.2.

He has thrown his 4-seamer on 53.9% of pitches this season, compared to 31.2% in 2022. When it is coming in significantly slower and at a much higher frequency hitters often know what to expect, which is why Falter’s strikeout rate sits in the bottom 19% of the MLB and his Whiff rate sits in the bottom 8%.

San Francisco Giants

Today’s starting pitcher for San Francisco is Alex Wood (0-0 record, 2.46 ERA). As previously mentioned he gives the Giants an advantage on the mound, but that is more of a reflection of how bad Falter has been rather than Wood’s success.

Wood has only pitched in 11.0 innings this season, a small sample size to draw conclusions from. However, there are some concerns to be had in that 11 inning stretch.

Wood owns a 1.64 WHIP in 2023, up from 1.23 last season. That is mainly the result of a 13% walk rate, well above the MLB average (8.4%) and 7.6% higher than Wood’s walk rate in 2022 (5.4%).

Opposing hitters are also sizing up the ball rather well against Wood. His average exit velocity allowed currently sits at 91.9 mph, putting Wood in the bottom 7% of the majors, per Baseball Savant. Unsurprisingly, that has led to a 9.1% barrel rate, furthering establishing that hitters can see the ball well out of Wood’s hands and it often results in hard contact.

What’s the Play?

Today’s matchup features two pitchers that are vulnerable on the mound, and as a result we agree with our model that the over is a 3-star play in this matchup.

Wood’s ERA comes in at just 2.46, which is a little deceiving. Baseball Savant has him listed with a 5.22 xERA, hinting that Wood has often gotten lucky in his limited appearances and that more runs are on the way.

That is likely to start happening tonight against Philadelphia. Their record may not show it, but the Phillies rank sixth in batting average (.263) and have scored six or more runs in four of their last six matchups.

Neither starter has much juice on the mound, and both bullpens rank in the bottom six of the MLB in ERA, per Covers. That should allow for runs to come in bunches tonights.

3-star play: Over 8.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers- 23-17 overall, 10-9 as the away team, 4-2 against NL Central opponents (Play NL Central rival St. Louis today)

• Houston Astros- 21-19 overall, 4-1 in last five games

Over/Under Trends

• Colorado Rockies- Under is 25-16 overall, 10-9 as the home team

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 26-14-2, the second highest win percentage in the MLB

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 21-18-2 overall, 11-6 as the away team

Run Line Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 23-18 overall, 11-6 as the away team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

😳 Phillies and Rockies clear the benches. The benches cleared in Game 3 of the Phillies and Rockies series on Sunday afternoon, resulting from a verbal exchange between Bryce Harper and Rockies reliever Jake Bird. Bird can be seen talking to the Phillies dugout and clapping his glove at Phillies players, which spun Harper the wrong way and caused the former MVP to confront the pitcher. The dispute was resolved before any punches were thrown, but Harper was making sure he got his money’s worth before being ejected.

📞 Cincinnati calls up top prospect. The Cincinnati Reds announced on Sunday that they will call up 23-year-old Matt McLain to the big leagues. He was selected with the 17th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and is the Reds No.5 prospect and the No.95 prospect in the MLB. McLain has appeared in 37 Triple-A games so far this season, resulting in a .346 batting average and 12 home runs.

🥊 Minnesota CRUSHES Chicago to end the series. The Minnesota Twins don’t have the most potent offense in all of baseball, ranking last in the MLB in hits and 22nd in OPS, but the Twins offense was humming on Mother’s Day against the Cubs. Minnesota would score 16 runs in the game, with seven of those runs coming in the bottom of the eighth inning. All nine Twins starters ended the game with at least one hit, with seven players getting two or more in the game.

🏆 The Arlington Renegades win the XFL Championship. In a time of year where the NFL is not playing any games, some football fans turn to the XFL to get their football fix. The XFL season came to an end on Saturday, with the Arlington Renegades defeating the D.C. Defenders 35-26. Arlington entered the match as a massive underdog, owning a 5-6 record while the Defenders posted a 10-1 record. The Renegades were led by former Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops, who can now add an XFL trophy to his trophy case alongside his 10 BIG 12 titles and one NCAA national championship.

🎓 Jalen Hurts gets his Master Degree from Oklahoma. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback has had quite the year in 2023. From the Super Bowl, to a $255 million contract, to a Masters Degree, the NFL star has proven that he is talented on and off the gridiron. Hurts transferred to Oklahoma in 2019 after graduating from the University of Alabama, where he would go on to play one season before being drafted by Philadelphia in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. A hat trick is the term that is used when a player, whether it be in hockey or soccer, scores three goals in a single match. Hat tricks don’t come around that often, but we see several every NHL season. Bill Mosienko, a member of the Chicago Blackhawks in 1952, had one of the more memorable hat tricks in NHL history when he set the record for the fastest hat trick. How long did it take Mosienko to score three goals?

2. The Cy Young award is given out every season to the best pitcher in the American and National League. Of course, the award is named after former MLB pitcher Cy Young, who holds the record for the most wins in MLB History. How many wins did Young tally during his career?

3. The Carolina Panthers are one of 32 teams in today’s NFL, but the team was not introduced until 1995. The NFL’s newest team had the fifth overall pick in the 1995 draft, selecting a quarterback out of Penn State University with the pick. Who was that player?

Anyone know what has happened on May 15th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 15th…

1969- Pro Football Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith is born in Pensacola, Florida. He would go on to play college football at the University of Florida before being selected 17th overall in the 1990 draft the Dallas Cowboys, the team he would win three Super Bowls and one MVP with. Smith currently ranks No.1 in NFL history for rushing yards with 18,355. That is 1,629 more yards than the next closest player.

1973- Baseball legend Nolan Ryan throws his first career no-hitter in a 3-0 victory over the Kansas City Royals, striking out 12 batters in the process. Ryan would throw his second no-hitter just two months later and would go on to throw three more across his next 84 starts, and by the end of his career would tally seven no-hitters. That is the most in MLB history by a wide margin, with the next closest being Sandy Koufax with four.

1990- Petr Klima scores the game winning goal for the Edmonton Oilers in a 3-2 victory over the Boston Bruins. Due to a power outage and having to play nearly three overtime periods, the game is still the longest in Stanley Cup Final history. Edmonton would win the series in five games.

2022- The Pittsburgh Pirates defeat the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 despite ending the game with zero hits. Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes had the only RBI of the game in the eighth inning, but his at bat was counted as a fielder’s choice and not a hit. Throwing a no-hitter is a rare occurrence within itself, but to throw a no-hitter and still lose the game has only happened seven times in MLB history.

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