In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were no model predictions yesterday, March 31, 2024.

14 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups can be found below.

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Model Predicts- Rays ML, UNDER 8.5, Rays +1.5

The Texas Rangers will begin a fresh three-game series on Monday, taking a trip to Tampa, Florida to battle the Rays.

Texas enters today’s matchup off a series win against the Chicago Cubs, taking two of three games to begin its World Series title defense. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay split a four-game series with an AL East rival, the Toronto Blue Jays.

Sportsbooks are expecting a tight contest this evening, but our model believes the rays should be a much larger favorite. Let’s dive into why that is.

Texas Rangers

• Coming off series against Cubs

  • Won first two games, lost final game on Sunday

  • +6 run differential in series

• Offense was star of the show to begin season

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (148), 8th in BABIP (.351)

  • Strikeouts were small concern vs Chicago- 23.0% strikeout rate in series

• Starting pitcher- Dane Dunning

  • 3.70 ERA last season, but xERA was 4.48

  • Vulnerable to contact- ranked in bottom 22% of MLB in Whiff % and strikeout % last season

Tampa Bay Rays

• Coming off series against AL East rival Toronto

  • Picked up two wins and two losses in series

  • -3 run differential in series

• Bullpen struggled in series vs Toronto

  • Starters- 3.86 ERA, 4.41 xFIP

  • Bullpen- 5.71 ERA, 6.39 xFIP

• Expected starter- Ryan Pepiot

  • 2.14 ERA and 3.23 xERA last season

  • Tremendous control- 3.1% walk rate last season

  • Posted 27.4% Hard Hit rate

What’s the Play?

Fading the defending World Series champions is always easy, but we agree with our model that Tampa Bay is in a position to pick up a win at home today.

Dunning began last season red hot, but slowly started to fade as the season went on and was forced into a reliever role by the end of the season. We saw some of those struggles continue in spring training, where he posted a 5.11 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Meanwhile, Pepiot is a great young pitcher and was far more reliable on the mound. As previously mentioned, his 3.1% walk rate shows how in control he is on the mound, and a 27.4% Hard Hit rate proves that he is difficult to size up.

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has looked shaky which could flip the script late, but we have enough confidence in Pepiot to slow down a hot Rangers offense and be a big piece to a Rays win tonight.

The Play: Rays ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Tigers- 3-0 overall this season, 3-0 as the away team

• New York Yankees- 4-0 overall this season, 4-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Over is 4-0 this season with average total of 12.0

• New York Yankees- Under is 3-0-1 this season with average total 8.0

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Atlanta Braves- Run line is 2-1 this season as a road favorite

🧹 Yankees start season with sweep of Astros. The New York Yankees completed a stunning sweep of the Houston Astros over the weekend, securing their fourth win of the season. The game's decisive moment came in the ninth inning when Juan Soto, a new addition to the team, hit a single to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. Despite a late-game rally by the Astros, including a close call with a potential game-winning hit, the Yankees held on for the victory.

😬 Yohan Ramirez suspended three games for throwing at Hoskins. New York Mets pitcher Yohan Ramírez has received a three-game suspension for throwing a pitch near the head of Milwaukee Brewers' Rhys Hoskins. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was also suspended for one game in relation to the incident. Ramírez is appealing his suspension and was eligible to play on Sunday, while Mendoza served his suspension immediately and missed Sunday’s game.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Chris Paul and Tim Duncan each played college basketball at what current ACC school?

Question #2- MLB outfielder Juan Soto has played on three teams during his career. What are those three teams?

Question #3- What team did the Miami Heat defeat in seven games in the 2013 NBA Finals?

Anyone know what has happened on April 1st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 1st…

2002- The 64th Men’s Basketball Championship is contested between Maryland and Indiana. The Terrapins emerged victorious over the Hoosiers, taking home the victory by a final score of 64-52. It was Maryland’s first NCAA basketball title.

2008- The New York Yankees defeat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 in their home opener. The win was the 11th straight home opener victory for New York, setting a new MLB record. Chien-Ming Wang picked up the win on the mound, and it was Joe Giaradi’s first win as Yankees manager.

2016- The Golden State Warriors suffer a 109-106 defeat at the hands of the Boston Celtics. The loss marked the end of a tremendous home wining streak for Golden State, which ended at an NBA-record 54 games. The loss was also the first home loss for the Warriors since January 2015.

1. Wake Forest University

2. Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees

3. San Antonio Spurs