In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, October 23, 2023.

The NBA is back! Opening night will feature two matchups, one between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets, and one between the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors. Our model predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors

Model Predicts- Suns ML, UNDER 234.5, Suns +1.5

The new-look Phoenix Suns will begin the 2023-24 NBA season against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.

Phoenix enters this matchup with an entirely new roster from years past, one that features All-Stars Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. Golden State made some new additions in the offseason as well, including the addition of former Suns point guard Chris Paul.

Both of these teams have the potential to win a title, but also have plenty of question marks. Nonetheless, our model thinks Phoenix will emerge victorious. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Phoenix Suns

• Plenty of new additions

  • Traded for Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, and Nassir Little

  • Signed Eric Gordon and Bol Bol in free agency

  • Lost Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton

• Stayed well-rounded even after selling everything for Kevin Durant

  • 9th-best Net Rating (+3.8) after Durant trade

  • Ranked in top-7 in opponent shooting % (46.0%) and 3pt % (34.7%) with Durant on roster

• Offense is loaded with scorers

  • Durant and Booker each averaged more than 27.0 points per game last season. Beal with 23.2 ppg in 50 games

  • Booker and Beal are questionable, but leaning towards playing

Golden State Warriors

• Finished 44-38 last season, largely because of questionable defense

  • Ranked 14th in Defensive Rating

  • Struggled on perimeter- allowed opponents to shoot 36.4% from three

  • Ranked in bottom half of NBA in fast break points allowed per game last season

• New lineup lacks height

  • Average height of roster is 6 feet 6 inches, the shortest team in NBA

• Key injury- Draymond Green will miss this game with ankle injury

What’s the Play?

The first week of any season is always a bloodbath when it comes to betting, but we agree with our model that the new-look Suns can begin the season 1-0.

As we all know, Golden State can light it up from behind the arc. However, guarding the perimeter was Phoenix’s strength last season, even after Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson were shipped across the country for Durant, which certainly doesn’t look good for Golden State’s chances. Phoenix has also added plenty of depth on the bench, something it didn’t have at the end of last season.

Additionally, the Warriors were just 3-6 on the money line last season when Draymond Green did not suit up. Our model believes Green is worth 1.8 points on the spread, and his absence has tilted the scales in the Suns’ favor here.

The Play: Suns ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Denver Nuggets- 53-29 overall last season, 34-7 as the home team

• Phoenix Suns- 45-37 overall last season, 15-11 following Durant trade

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Lakers- Over was 52-47 last season (including playoffs), 31-18 as the away team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Phoenix Suns- 44-38-2 against the spread (ATS) last season

💰 Antetokounmpo agrees to MASSIVE extension with Bucks. Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo has agreed to a three-year, $186 million contract extension, with a player option for the 2027-2028 season. The deal comes shortly after Milwaukee traded for Damian Lillard, further emphasizing the team’s desire to keep its stars and win another NBA title. The Bucks are set to open their season against the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday, a matchup many believe can be an Eastern Conference Finals preview.

🤕 Steven Adams set to miss entire season. Memphis Grizzlies center Steven Adams will sit out the entire season due to the need for surgery on his right knee's posterior cruciate ligament. Although he participated in two preseason games after offseason rehab, Adams hasn't played a regular-season game for the Grizzlies since sustaining the injury in January. The team anticipates a full recovery for Adams by the 2024-25 season and is already grappling with the absence of key players, including guard Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke.

There are 16 NHL games schedule to take place today, meaning that every team in the league is scheduled to suit up. Our model predictions for each matchup can be found below.

Colorado Avalanche @ New York Islanders

Model Predicts- Avalanche ML, UNDER 6, Islanders +1.5

The Colorado Avalanche will begin a three-game roadtrip on Tuesday with a stop in Long Island, New York to take on the Islanders.

Colorado enters this matchup a perfect 5-0-0, most recently defeating the Carolina Hurricanes. Meanwhile, New York sits at 2-1-1 following back-to-back losses to the Devils and Sabres last Friday and Saturday.

Our model only predicts the Avalanche as slight favorites here, but it does show some value on the total. Let’s dive into why that is.

Colorado Avalanche

• Defense has been main story in early season

  • Surrendering 1.86 goals per 60 minutes (GA/60) in 5-on-5 situations

  • xGA/60 sits at 2.27, hinting at regression, but that number ranks 6th in NHL (Natural Stat Trick)

  • Surrendering 5th fewest high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

  • Have given up 1.6 goals per game this season

• Starting goalie- Alexandar Georgiev

  • Ranks 1st in NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +9.4

  • .929 Save % and .808 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5 situations

New York Islanders

• Have had some struggles on offense

  • 2.17 GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations. Rank 21st in xGF/60 (2.47)

  • Have scored 9 goals through 4 games. 7.5% of shots convert to goals (5th lowest % in NHL)

• Defense has held its ground, but is due for regression

  • 1.55 GA/60 vs 2.70 xGA/60 in 5-on-5

  • 3rd fewest penalty minutes, but are killing only 69.2% of power plays

• Starting goalie- Ilya Sorokin

  • Ranks 37th in GSAx (+0.3)

  • .970 Save % and .875 High-Danger Save % in 5-on-5

What’s the Play?

The Islanders defense has look vulnerable in multiple areas so far. However, we agree with our model that we likely see a low scoring contest tonight.

New York has given its opponents plenty of chances to score the puck, but Ilya Sorokin has been a brick wall in net and that has kept the Islanders in the lead for many of their games. His only bad performance came in his last start against the Devils, but four of the five goals he allowed came while New Jersey was on the power play.

Georgiev has proven to be the best goalie in the early going as well, and the Colorado defense should limit the scoring chances for a below-average Islanders offense. We’ll take the under

The Play: Under 6 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Dallas Stars- 3-0-1 overall this season, 1-0-1 as the away team

• Colorado Avalanche- 5-0-0 overall this season, 3-0-0 as the away team

• New York Rangers- 3-2-0 overall this season, 2-1-0 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Islanders- Under is 3-1 this season with average total of 4.75 goals

• Minnesota Wild- Over is 4-1 this season with average total of 7.40 goals

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Boston Bruins- Puck line is 4-1 overall this season

• Arizona Coyotes- Puck line is 4-1 overall this season

⭐️ Allen shines in win over Sabres. Jake Allen's outstanding 36-save performance led the Montreal Canadiens to a 3-1 victory over the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center. Reflecting on the win, Allen emphasized his focus on continuous improvement, especially during a part of the schedule where the team is relatively fresh. Tanner Pearson and Brendan Gallagher both contributed with a goal and an assist, securing the Canadiens' second consecutive win, while Jeff Skinner scored the lone goal for the Sabres.

🤕 Taylor Hall suffers injury setback, deemed week-to-week. Blackhawks winger Taylor Hall will have an extended absence due to reaggravating a shoulder injury, as reported by head coach Luke Richardson. The injury initially occurred during a game against the Bruins on October 11, and although listed as week-to-week at first, Hall returned to the lineup briefly before realizing the need for a more extended recovery period. With Hall sidelined, 2023 first-overall pick Connor Bedard is set to have new linemates in the form of seasoned veterans Tyler Johnson and Nick Foligno.

There is one MLB game schedule to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 8.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in a do-or-die Game 7 on Tuesday night.

Philadelphia jumped out to an early 2-0 series lead, but has since gone 1-3 and lost its first postseason game at home last night. Ranger Suárez will take the mound in an attempt to reverse that trend, while Brandon Pfaadt will throw the first pitch for Arizona.

Our model is essentially calling this game a coin flip, but we found another angle regarding one of these team’s run totals. Let’s take a look at what that angle is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Looked dead after two games, but have since come back to life

  • Outscored 15-3 in Games 1 and 2. Have posted +1 run differential since

  • Posted -2 wRC+ and .360 OPS in Games 1 and 2. Numbers have risen to 106 and .760, respectively, in Games 3 through 6

• Starting pitcher- Brandon Pfaadt

  • Coming off best game of young career- 0 runs and 9 strikeouts in 5.2 innings

  • Has tendency to give up long ball- 2.06 home runs per 9 innings in regular season

  • Ranks in bottom 3% of MLB in Barrel rate (11.7%) and bottom 8% in ground ball rate (32.6%)

Philadelphia Phillies

• Offense has cooled off significantly in NLCS

  • Posted 137 wRC+, .328 BABIP, and .892 OPS prior to NLCS (FanGraphs)

  • Numbers have dropped to 109, .271, and .787, respectively in NLCS

• Insane home run rate has fallen back to Earth

  • Hit six home runs in Games 1 and 2 vs Arizona. 4 total in next 4 games

  • Still have 23 home runs in postseason- most of any team

• Starting pitcher- Ranger Suárez

  • 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 14.0 postseason innings

  • Great at keeping balls on ground (48.8% ground ball rate) and limiting hard contact (36.1% hard hit rate)

What’s the Play?

The Phillies offense hasn’t looked great for most of this series. However, our model is projecting Philadelphia to score just over 4.5 runs tonight, and we think that is the correct angle to take here.

A lot of people are high on Brandon Pfaadt after his last performance, and it’s entirely understandable. However, the truth is that he can’t keep baseballs on the ground and oftentimes sees those balls fly out of the park, which is a dangerous flaw to have against this Phillies offense.

Citizen’s Bank Park is a much more hitter-friendly park than Chase Field, which is where Pfaadt was last on the mound. Seeing a pitcher a second time always benefits the hitter, and we expect the Phillies to adjust to Pfaadt and pour on the runs this time around.

The Play: Phillies over 4.5 runs (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Philadelphia Phillies- 8-4 overall in postseason, 6-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Philadelphia Phillies- Over is 5-6-1 in postseason with average total of 7.17 runs per game

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 8-3 overall in postseason

🏆 Rangers crush Astros, advance to World Series. The Texas Rangers secured the American League pennant by defeating the Houston Astros 11-4 in Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday. Texas dominated from the outset, scoring three runs in the first inning and extending their lead with a four-run fourth inning, largely thanks to a standout performance from Adolis García. Having clinched all four of their series wins on the road at Houston's Minute Maid Park, the Rangers are now poised to vie for their first-ever World Series championship, facing the winner of the National League Championship Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

💎 Arizona forces Game 7 behind Merrill Kelly gem. The Arizona Diamondbacks forced a Game 7 in the National League Championship Series by defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 5-1 in Game 6. Starting pitcher Merrill Kelly had an excellent performance, allowing just one run in five innings and quieting the normally lively Philadelphia crowd. The series is now set for a decisive Game 7, with the winner going on to face the Texas Rangers in the World Series.