In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, NHL, and MLB with our model focusing in on three of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 3-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-4

Over/Under Predictions: 10-3

Spread Predictions: 4-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-2

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Run Line Predictions: 1-0

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There is one NFL game scheduled to take place today, with that matchup featuring the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers

Model Predicts- Cowboys ML, UNDER 51, Cowboys -1.5

The Dallas Cowboys will stay out West for one more week to take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.

The Cowboys enter this matchup at 3-2 following a miserable loss to the San Francisco 49ers last week, putting a damper on an otherwise great season. Meanwhile, the Chargers sit at 2-2 and should be well-rested after their bye week.

Los Angeles’ bye week is certainly a factor here, but our model believes the Cowboys can get the job done on the road. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Dallas Cowboys

• Horrific performance against SF last week

  • Lost 42-10, recorded just 197 total yards

  • Dak Prescott- 58.3% completion %, 1 TD, 3 INTs

• Performance doesn’t paint picture of how good Dallas has been this season

  • Defense- 3rd in EPA/play, 6th in opponent dropback success rate, 1st in pass rush win rate

  • Offense- 1st in run block win rate, rank in top-12 in success rate and EPA/play

  • Own +51 point differential for season. Was +83 prior to last week’s loss

• Injuries are hurting depth

  • Leighton Vander Esch (OUT), Chuma Edoga (Questionable)

Los Angeles Chargers

• Started season 0-2, have gone 2-0 since

• Defense is responsible for most of team’s struggles

  • 27th in EPA/play, rank in bottom eight in opponent dropback and rush success rate

  • 24th in pass rush win rate, 21st in run stop win rate

  • 28th in yards per play (5.9)

• Offense forced to put up huge numbers, which it has done

  • 408.5 yards per game, 27.5 points per game

  • Utilize pass often- run ball on just 42.16% of plays

• Key injuries on both sides of ball

  • Joey Bosa, Nick Williams, and Josh Palmer all questionable

What’s the Play?

The Chargers get Austin Ekeler back in the lineup tonight to boost an already potent offense. However, we agree with our model that Dallas can win this matchup.

You’re never as good or as bad as you look in primetime when the entire nation is watching, so we shouldn’t overreact to Dallas’ performance last week. Sure, it wasn’t pretty, but the Chargers surrender 433.5 yards per game, with nearly 300 of those yards coming through the air, and the Cowboys defense is still a top-5 group in several in metrics.

This is a great bounce back spot for Dallas. We’ll take them on the money line.

The Play: Cowboys ML (-125)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Dallas Cowboys- 3-2 overall this season, 10-1 after a loss since 2021

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Chargers- Under is 2-2 overall this season, 1-1 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Cowboys- 3-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 10-1 ATS after a loss since 2021

🏈 No undefeated teams left in NFL. Sunday was a day for the underdog, with the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets taking down the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. The 49ers jumped out to an early 7-0 lead over Cleveland, but were shut down the rest of the way and failed to make the go ahead field goal in the game’s final seconds. Meanwhile, Philadelphia held a 14-3 lead at halftime, but was held scoreless in the second half, giving every team in the league at least one loss.

🤕 Fields dislocates thumb in loss to Vikings. More details emerged about Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields' right thumb injury, with multiple reports confirming that he suffered a dislocated thumb. Fields was unable to grip the ball due to the injury, prompting an upcoming MRI on Monday to assess the injury's severity and his prospects for Week 7 and beyond. Although rookie Tyson Bagent replaced Fields and scored a touchdown, the Bears ultimately fell to the Vikings 19-13 and are 1-5 on the season.

The NHL will ease us into a busy week, giving us five games to look at today. Our model’s predictions for all five matchups are below.

Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, UNDER 7, Blue Jackets +1.5

The Detroit Red Wings will make a short one-game road trip to Columbus, Ohio to take on the Blue Jackets on Monday.

Detroit enters this matchup at 1-1, losing to the Devils in the season opener but coming back with a win over the Lightning. Columbus is also 1-1, losing to the Flyers and defeating the Rangers.

Books seem to only slightly favor the Red Wings, but our model gives Detroit a massive edge in this spot. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for today’s matchup.

Detroit Red Wings

• Have played solid hockey through two games

  • +1 goal differential, 4.5 goals per game

• Likely to see positive regression on defensive end

  • 3.07 GA/60 in 5-on-5 situations vs 2.74 xGA/60 (Natural Stat Trick)

  • Surrendering just 7.37 high-danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5

• Offense has been solid as well- rank 6th in xGF/60 in 5-on-5 (3.49)

• Starting goalie- Ville Husso

  • .878 Save % in 5-on-5, but 1.000 high-danger Save % in same situations

  • -0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)

Columbus Blue Jackets

• Solid start to season, but have over-performed

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 is 3.19, while xGF/60 is 2.35

  • GA/60 in 5-on-5 is 2.55, while xGA/60 is 3.83

• Defense allows far too much pressure to stay in many games

  • 15.3 HDCA/60 in 5-on-5 in just two games

  • Surrendering 39.5 shots on goal per game. -25 shot differential

• Starting goalie- Elvis Merzlikins

  • Ranks 7th in GSAx (2.3) this season

  • .939 Save % and .917 high danger Save % in 5-on-5 situations

What’s the Play?

One thing we would like to mention is that Columbus’ goalie situation still isn’t clear. Merzlikins left Saturday’s game with an illness, and Spencer Martin came in and allowed two goals on 17 shots. Either way, we like Detroit to win tonight’s game.

The underlying metrics show that Columbus has been horrible defensively through two games. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but the Blue Jackets are surrendering way too much pressure near the crease, and it is eventually going to open the floodgates for goals.

Detroit’s offense is certainly capable of making that happen tonight regardless of who is in net for Columbus. We’ll back the red Wings on the money line.

The Play: Red Wings ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• New Jersey Devils- 1-0-1 at home this season, 24-13-4 as the home team last season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Washington Capitals- Under is 1-0 this season, 40-39-3 last season

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Toronto Maple Leafs- Puck line is 1-1 this season

• Detroit Red Wings- Puck line is 2-0 this season

🧢 Vatrano’s hat trick propels Ducks to win. Frank Vatrano notched his fourth career hat trick as the Anaheim Ducks secured their eighth consecutive home opener victory with a 6-3 triumph over the Carolina Hurricanes. The Ducks, tied with Boston and Toronto for the longest active winning streaks in home openers, have now earned points in each of their last 11 Honda Center debuts since 2013. Cam Fowler and Sam Carrick also found the net, while Ryan Strome and Mason McTavish contributed two assists each, and Lukas Dostal made 32 saves.

💪 Tkachuk leads Ottawa to second straight win. Brady Tkachuk showcased his prowess with two goals and an assist to lead the Ottawa Senators to a 5-2 victory over the lackluster Tampa Bay Lightning. The Senators displayed an early advantage, outshooting their opponents 11-1 and securing the game's opening goal through a well-executed back-pass from Ridly Greig, providing Vladimir Tarasenko with his first goal as a Senator. Tkachuk's efforts sealed the win, demonstrating Ottawa's dominance in the game, leaving Tampa Bay looking as out of sorts as their previous opponent, the Philadelphia Flyers.

Two MLB games are scheduled to take place today, with Game 2 of the ALCS beginning at 4:37 pm Eastern and Game 1 of the NLCS beginning at 8:07 pm Eastern. Our model’s predictions for both games can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies

Model Predicts- Phillies ML, OVER 7.5, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks will make the trip to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to take on the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS.

Arizona enters this series red hot, picking up wins in all five of their postseason matchups. Philadelphia is in a similar position, winning five of its six postseason games so far.

Picking up a win at Citizens Bank Park in the postseason has proven to be a tall task, and our model doesn’t expect that to change today. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Have yet to lose in postseason

  • Swept Brewers in Wild Card, swept Dodgers in NLDS

  • +19 run differential in 5 games

• Offense has been red hot in playoffs

  • Rank 2nd in wRC+ (133) and OPS (.877), per FanGraphs

  • 13 home runs is tied for most among any playoff team

  • Not doing much damage outside of home runs- .282 BABIP

• Starting pitcher- Zac Gallen

  • 3.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in playoffs

  • Struggles with hard contact- Ranks in bottom 5% of MLB in Hard Hit rate and average exit velocity allowed

Philadelphia Phillies

• Have dominated in most postseason games

  • 5-1 overall, +21 run differential

• Offense has been even better than Arizona’s in postseason

  • Rank 1st in wRC+ (137), 3rd in BABIP (.328), and 1st in OPS (.892)

  • 13 home runs is tied with Arizona, but 26.8% strikeout rate is a concern

• Starting pitcher- Zack Wheeler

  • 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in postseason

  • Ranks in top 10% of MLB in walk rate (5.0%), Barrel rate (5.1%) and average exit velocity

  • 3.21 xERA shows he has gotten unlucky despite great performances

What’s the Play?

Both Arizona and Philadelphia have been great offensively, but our model isn’t seeing much value on either of their money line’s. However, there does appear to be some value on the Phillies’ team total, which you can get anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 on most books.

Zac Gallen’s surface level numbers are excellent, but several underlying metrics show he could be in for a long night. His xERA (4.18) sits 0.71 runs higher than his season ERA, and his vulnerability to hard contact is bad news against a Phillies team that has done nothing besides light up the opposing pitcher in the playoffs.

Philadelphia’s BABIP shows it is getting on base in multiple ways besides the home run ball, which should allow them to score several runs today. Our model is projecting 4.58 runs for Philly, so we’ll take their over at 3.5 or 4, depending on what you can find.

The Play: Phillies Over 3.5 runs (-140)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Texas Rangers- 6-0 overall in postseason, 5-0 as the away team

• Philadelphia Phillies- 5-1 overall in postseason, 4-0 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Under is 4-1-1 in postseason

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Over is 2-3 in postseason, 2-1 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 91-76 overall this season (including postseason), 5-0 in postseason

🎉 Rangers stay perfect in postseason. Jordan Montgomery's outstanding performance on Sunday gave the Texas Rangers a 1-0 series lead in the ALCS. Montgomery, who posted his second scoreless outing in three playoff starts, shut down the entire Astros lineup, while the Rangers showcased their lower-order hitters to secure a 2-0 victory. The Rangers remain undefeated in this postseason, with an impressive 6-0 record, putting the Astros in an unfamiliar position as they seek to win their third consecutive AL pennant.

🎤 Giants interview Nakken for manager position. Alyssa Nakken, a coach for the San Francisco Giants, has been interviewed for the team's managerial position. It is the first time a woman has been formally considered for such a role, and comes after San Francisco fired Gabe Kapler just a few weeks ago. Nakken, who became MLB's first female full-time coach in 2020, has served as a major league assistant coach for four seasons and even stepped in as a first-base coach during a game in April 2022.