In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-0

Spread Predictions: 0-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 1-1

Run Line Predictions: 2-0

Featured Matchup: 0-1

The NHL is back! Three NHL games are scheduled to take place today, and our model has predictions for all three of those matchups.

Nashville Predators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Model Predicts- Lightning ML, UNDER 6.5, Predators +1.5

The Nashville Predators and Tampa Bay Lightning will begin the 2023-24 NHL season on Tuesday night.

Tampa Bay is coming off a season in which it finished 46-30-6 overall, but was bounced in the first round of the postseason by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, Nashville finished the 2022-23 season with a 42-32-8 record and was the first team to miss out on the playoffs in the Western Conference.

Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will miss tonight’s matchup, but that hasn’t stopped our model from predicting a Lightning win in a low scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Nashville Predators

• Scoring was a challenge throughout last season

  • Ranked 27th in GF/60 in 5-on-5 situations (2.25), per Natural Stat Trick

  • xGF/60 in 5-on-5 sat at just 2.59- Expectations weren’t far from reality

  • Didn’t generate much pressure- ranked in bottom half of NHL in high danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60)

• Defense often came to play

  • Top-12 in GA/60 in 5-on-5

  • Vulnerable to pressure though- allowed nearly 13 high danger chances per 60 minutes in 5-on-5

• Starting goalie- Juuse Saros

  • Ranked 1st in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) last season (MoneyPuck)

  • Posted .919 Save % last season. Rose to .927 in preseason

Tampa Bay Lightning

• Elite offense last season

  • Ranked 10th in GF/60 (2.68) in 5-on-5 situations

  • Generated 14.28 high danger chances per 60 minutes in similar situations

  • Three-headed monster leading charge- Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Nikita Kucherov (combined for 115 goals last season)

• Starting goalie- Jonas Johansson

  • In net for injured Andrei Vasilevskiy

  • Only played in three games last season

    • .932 Save % and +3.9 GSAx

    • Allowed just two goals on 71 shot attempts in preseason

What’s the Play?

Nashville struggled all last year when it came to scoring, and the addition of Ryan O’Reilly and new coach Andrew Brunette may help ease their offensive woes. However, albeit in a small sample size, getting the puck past Johansson has proven to be a tall task, and we believe Nashville’s offense will be slow out of the gates.

However, the Predators have a brick wall in net with Juuse Saros, which will keep them in almost every game this season.

Johansson is a wild card to begin the year, but facing an average offense while his team goes against one of the best goalies in the NHL will make for a low scoring game. We’ll take the under at 6.5.

The Play: Under 6.5 (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Tampa Bay Lightning- 46-30-6 overall last season, 28-8-5 as the home team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 51-22-9 overall last season, 25-15-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Nashville Predators- Under was 43-35-4 last season with average total of 5.70 goals per game

• Chicago Blackhawks- Over was 42-36-4 last season with average total of 6.16 goals per game

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Seattle Kraken- Puck line was 48-34 overall last season

✈️Jets give Hellebuyck, Scheifle identical extensions. The Winnipeg Jets have secured seven-year contract extensions for both Connor Hellebuyck and center Mark Scheifele, each valued at $59.5 million. Hellebuyck, 30, is fresh off a remarkable season with 37 wins, a 2.49 goals-against average, a .920 save percentage, earning him another Vezina nomination. Meanwhile, Scheifele, also 30, the Jets' first pick after their move from Atlanta, has accumulated 272 goals and 645 points across 723 games.

💰Dahlin earns massive extension from Buffalo. The Buffalo Sabres have inked an eight-year, $88-million contract extension with defenseman Rasmus Dahlin. The extension will make Dahlin the NHL's second-highest-paid blueliner, trailing only Drew Doughty of the Los Angeles Kings. Dahlin, the top overall pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, has amassed 46 goals and 187 assists in 355 career games, becoming one of only 12 defensemen in NHL history to surpass 200 points before turning 23.

🤕 Matt Murray out 6-8 months. Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Matt Murray is set to endure a lengthy recovery period of at least six to eight months following successful bilateral hip surgery. This news comes after Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving had already ruled him out for the season, placing him on long-term injured reserve in July. Murray, who is entering the final year of his four-year, $25 million contract, had limited playtime in 2022-23, with 26 games and a record of 14-8-2.

There are two MLB games scheduled to take place today, both of which are Game 3 in their respective division series. Our model’s predictions for both matchups can be found below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, UNDER 9, Orioles +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers will take the ALDS to Arlington on Tuesday night.

Texas managed to steal both games 1 and 2 in Baltimore, defeating the Orioles 3-2 and 11-8, respectively. The Rangers are now a perfect 4-0 in the postseason after sweeping Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round.

One more loss would end Baltimore’s postseason dreams, but our model thinks the Orioles will extend their season with a win today. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for tonight’s matchup.

Baltimore Orioles

• Find themselves in 0-2 hole as American League’s top seed

• Pitching staff is largely to blame for struggles

  • Starting pitchers- 10.16 ERA and 2.90 WHIP in series

  • Bullpen- 5.63 ERA in series

• Luckily, Baltimore is a much better offense on the road than at home

  • Home- 103 wRC+ (15th), .296 BABIP (18th), .725 OPS (21st)

  • Away- 107 wRC+ (7th), .313 BABIP (2nd), .756 OPS (7th)

• Offense came on late in Game 2

  • 8 total runs scored (3 in bottom of 9th)

  • 14 hits in game- 3 more than Texas

• Dean Kremer (13-5 record, 4.12 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 2.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across last 7 starts

  • Limits walks, but doesn’t generate many swings and misses- bottom 34% of MLB in strikeout and Whiff rate

  • Has performed better than expected- 4.96 xERA

Texas Rangers

• Offense has yet to be stopped in postseason

  • 25 runs scored across four postseason games

  • 129 wRC+ (1st), .360 BABIP (1st), and .819 OPS (2nd)

• Bullpen is biggest concern moving forward

  • Regular season- Ranked 24th in ERA (4.77)

  • Postseason- own 2.45 ERA, but have posted 4.07 FIP and 4.22 xFIP. Ground ball rate comes in at just 34.3% and rank 29th in home runs per nine innings (1.36)

  • Have allowed 4 runs and 2 home runs in the series

• Nathan Eovaldi (12-5 record, 3.63 ERA) set to get start on mound

  • Pitched gem in Wild Card round- 6.2 innings, 6 hits , 1 run

  • However, posted 9.44 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in four starts prior

  • Ranks in bottom 21% of MLB in Hard Hit Rate, and bottom 50% in Barrel and Strikeout rate

What’s the Play?

Our model is predicting 8.99 runs to be scored in this game, while the total given on all sportsbooks is 9. At first we wanted to roll with the over, and still think it’s a solid play here, even though it technically goes against the model, but we think this is a great spot for Baltimore to pick up a win.

Dean Kremer isn’t the guy you want on the mound with the season on the line, but almost all sportsbooks have his over/under for outs set at 10.5. That hints at this being more of a bullpen style game, which gives Baltimore an edge even with Felix Bautista not in the picture.

Additionally, Baltimore’s offense has been great in the playoffs despite two losses, posting a 128 wRC+ and .819 OPS. We think Eovaldi’s performance against the Rays is overshadowing the fact that he has been terrible since returning from the IL in September (7.33 ERA in 27 innings), and even if Kremer gets hit around, he will be backed by a top-5 offense and arguably the best bullpen in the league. We’ll take Baltimore at plus money.

The Play: Orioles ML (+120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Twins- 90-76 overall this season (including postseason), 49-34 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- 101-63 overall this season (including postseason), 30-21 as a road underdog in regular season

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Houston Astros- Over is 85-75-4 this season, is 2-0 in postseason

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 96-68 overall this season, 38-13 as a road underdog

💪 Braves stun Phillies with epic comeback. The Atlanta Braves were on the verge of a disappointing playoff setback against Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies last night. Wheeler had a no-hitter through 5.2 innings, however, Austin Riley's clutch two-run homer in the eighth inning and Michael Harris Jr.'s incredible catch at the fence secured a crucial 5-4 victory in Game 2 of the National League Division Series. This win not only leveled the series at 1-1 but also spared the Braves from a potential 2-0 deficit, setting the stage for an exciting Game 3 in Philadelphia.

🐍 Diamondbacks take 2-0 lead back home. The Arizona Diamondbacks have extended their surprising playoff success by defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2 in a second consecutive game, putting them just one win away from reaching the NLCS. The Diamondbacks have been dominant against the Dodgers' starting pitchers, notably overpowering Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and causing trouble for rookie starter Bobby Miller in Game 2. With a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five NL Division Series, the Diamondbacks have a chance to secure victory in either the upcoming Wednesday or Thursday night games at Chase Field in Phoenix..

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which NHL player scored the most goals in a single game, finding the back of the net 7 times?

Question #2- Before transitioning to wide receiver, Jakobi Meyers was a quarterback at what ACC school?

Question #3- Which NBA player is the youngest to ever win a scoring title, doing so at the age of 21?

Anyone know what has happened on October 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On October 10th…

1957- The Milwaukee Braves defeat the New York Yankees to win the World Series. The series was in its final game as both clubs was won three of the first six matchups, with the Braves winning by a score of 5-0 in Game 7. Braves pitcher Lew Burdette, who pitched three complete games in the series, was named World Series MVP.

1990- The Oakland Athletics defeat the Boston Red Sox to clinch the American League championship. Oakland brought out the brooms in the series, defeating Boston 4 games to 0. The series win propelled the Athletics to the World Series for the third consecutive season, where they would eventually lose to the Cincinnati Reds.

1994- The New York Giants retire Lawrence Taylor’s #94. Taylor played for the Giants for his entire 13-year NFL career, winning two Super Bowls and one MVP. He would retire with 132.5 career sacks, tied for the 14th-most in NFL history.

1. Joe Malone

2. North Carolina State

3. Kevin Durant