In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and NHL, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 6-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-4

Spread Predictions: 3-8

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 2-2

Over/Under Predictions: 4-0

Puck Line Predictions: 1-3

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Don’t Miss Out on Being a Premium Subscriber…

SportSense Premium Subscribers went 2-1 on NBA player props yesterday, and it costs just $0.50 per day to access.

Today’s Premium agenda includes…

• Two NBA player props and projected stat lines with analysis (see below example)

• NFL player props for Thursday Night Football

Our Premium tools and analysis make our subscribers smarter sports bettors, and provide an edge that you won’t receive elsewhere. Today’s player props are already posted on our website! Click the button below to join Premium today! ⬇️ 

A brutal Thursday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers is all we have at our disposal in the NFL today. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s game are below.

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Model Predicts- Steelers ML, UNDER 30, Patriots +6

The New England Patriots make the journey to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in Week 14 to take on the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.

New England enters tonight’s matchup in the midst of a brutal stretch of football, one that has seen the Patriots go 0-5 across the last five games. New England is now just 2-10 for the season, while Pittsburgh owns a 7-5 record following a loss at home last week to the Arizona Cardinals.

Several games separate New England and Pittsburgh in the AFC standings, but in reality these teams aren’t far apart. As a result, our model projects the struggling Patriots to keep the deficit manageable. Let’s dive into why that is.

New England Patriots

• Contending to be worst team in football

  • Own 2-10 record. Only wins are over Bills and Jets

  • 0-5 in last five games

• Offense has completely collapsed in last three games

  • 13 points scored in that span. Scored zero last week

  • Averaging 4.4 yards per play

  • Cant sustain drives- converting on just 33.33% of third downs

• Defense has helped keep things close

  • Surrendering 4.4 yards per play and 8.67 points per game over last three weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Offense is a disaster despite winning games

  • Rank 23rd or worse in EPA/play and success rate

  • Can’t score touchdowns- 17 total this season. Score TD on just 42.31% of red zone drives this season

• Offensive struggles are likely to continue due to injuries

  • Kenny Pickett out with ankle injury. Mitch Trubisky will start

  • Najee Harris is questionable

• Elite defense has saved team all season

  • Rank in top-10 in opponent EPA/play and success rate

What’s the Play?

This is likely going to be one of the ugliest games we have ever seen, but we agree with our model that New England can cover the spread here.

New England is allergic to the endzone, which is obviously a problem when backing the Pats on the spread. However, Pittsburgh is no better, scoring a touchdown on just 25.00% of red zone drives over the last three weeks. Most of the time the Steelers don’t even come close to the red zone, a result of converting on just 35.71% of third downs in that same three-week span.

This game is destined to be a field position game, one that sees more punts than points scored. Our model likes the under here, however, it is showing more value on the Patriots’ spread, as New England’s defense, a group that ranks seventh in opponent success rate, will likely stifle an anemic Steelers offense that will utilize a backup quarterback.

The Play: Patriots +6 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Pittsburgh Steelers- 7-5 overall this season, 4-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New England Patriots- Under is 9-3 this season, 4-1 as the away team

• Pittsburgh Steelers- Under is 10-2 this season, 5-2 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New England Patriots- 2-10 against the spread (ATS) this season, 1-7 ATS as an underdog

✈️ Jets go back to Zach Wilson after releasing Boyle. After being benched for three weeks, Zach Wilson is set to reclaim his starting position with the New York Jets this Sunday, as confirmed by coach Robert Saleh. Saleh reinstated Wilson, highlighting the quarterback's potential to lead the team to victory, following a period where Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian briefly took over but failed to secure wins. Despite prior reports suggesting Wilson hesitated due to injury concerns, Saleh clarified that Wilson eagerly expressed his desire to return to the field, anticipating his role in leading the team's offense.

🤕 Najee Harris questionable for TNF. Pittsburgh Steelers' running back Najee Harris is uncertain to play in the upcoming game against the New England Patriots due to a knee injury, missing practice sessions on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Harris, standing at 6-foot-1 and weighing 242 pounds, has been a crucial player for the Steelers, accumulating 661 yards and four touchdowns this season. In the event Harris is sidelined, the Steelers are likely to lean on Jaylen Warren, who boasts a 5.9-yard average per carry and has garnered 884 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns.

The NBA In-Season Tournament semifinals are set to take place in Las Vegas, Nevada this evening. Our model’s predictions for tonight’s contests can be found below.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers

Model Predicts- Pelicans ML, UNDER 229.5, Pelicans +2

The New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Lakers will make the journey to Las Vegas on Thursday, with hopes of keeping their In-Season Tournament dreams alive with a win tonight.

New Orleans enters tonight’s matchup with a 12-10 record, one that has been compiled thanks to winning eight of its last 12 games. That record is good enough for eighth place in the Western Conference, while the Lakers sit a few spots higher in fifth after winning 13 of 22 games this season.

Both of these teams have had their fair share of battles to get to this point, but our model believes that New Orleans will be the team to advance to the Tournament Finals. Let’s dive into why that is.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Have been one of best teams in NBA over last 12 games

  • 8-4 record in that time. Rank 3rd in Net Rating (+8.4)

• Display incredible balance on both ends of floor

  • 114.2 Offensive Rating, 112.8 Defensive Rating

  • Defense is stronger unit- Holding opponents to shooting 33.4% from three, surrender just 47.6 points per game in paint (41.3 over last three games)

• Getting healthier- C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy back in lineup. Have combined for 35 points per game when both healthy

Los Angeles Lakers

• Snuck away with win against Suns on Tuesday

  • Controversial timeout call stopped a Lakers turnover that would have led to Suns bucket

  • Scored 106 points while shooting 37% from the floor

• Really bad outside of home arena

  • 9-2 record at home vs 4-7 record on road

  • Struggles reflected in Net Rating- +6.8 at home, -8.5 on road

• Team lacks scoring depth

  • 73% of points comes from starting five

What’s the Play?

Even though this is a neutral site game as opposed to a true road game, we’re going to roll with New Orleans to cover the spread.

The Lakers’ struggles away from home are glaring, with a 15.3-point swing in Net Rating occurring simply because of a change in venue. Additionally, this Lakers team has been playing horrific basketball over the last three games, shooting 41.9% overall and a poor 31.1% from three, per NBA.com. Efficiency has been an issue as of late, and it has caused the Lakers to either lose outright or be in tight games down the stretch.

Neither one of these teams has a ton of depth off the bench, but the Pelicans possess a slightly better offense and finally have most of their lineup healthy. That makes New Orleans a solid play on the spread here.

The Play: Pelicans +2 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Milwaukee Bucks- 15-6 overall this season, 8-2 in last ten games

• New Orleans Pelicans- 12-10 overall this season, 8-4 in last 12 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Lakers- Under is 13-9 this season

• New Orleans Pelicans- Under is 12-10 this season

Spread Trends ➕➖

• New Orleans Pelicans- 13-8-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog

• Indiana Pacers- 6-3 ATS as an underdog

🍔 Embiid drops 50 burger in win over Wizards. Joel Embiid dominated with a season-high 50 points and 13 rebounds, leading the Philadelphia 76ers to a 131-126 victory over the Washington Wizards. Embiid, a six-time 50-point scorer, showcased his offensive prowess, shooting 19 of 28 from the field and contributing seven assists in just over 38 minutes after returning from a brief illness. Despite a competitive game with multiple lead changes, the 76ers managed to secure the win as Embiid's stellar performance propelled them to victory, supported by contributions from Tyrese Maxey and De'Anthony Melton.

🤕 LaVine out for additional 3-4 weeks. Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine was supposed to be sidelined for just one week, but that timeline has since been extended. LaVine will now be out for an extra three to four weeks due to a right foot issue, announced after their 111-100 win against the Charlotte Hornets. Surprisingly, LaVine, who has been the subject of trade rumors, being sidelined has helped Chicago secure their first three-game winning streak this season, and they’ll look to extend it to four on Friday against the Spurs.

The NHL has blessed us with a LOADED slate of games today, as 26 teams are scheduled to hit the ice. Our model’s predictions for every matchup are below.

San Jose Sharks @ Detroit Red Wings

Model Predicts- Red Wings ML, UNDER 6.5, Sharks +1.5

The San Jose Sharks will play the fifth game of a six-game road trip on Thursday night, with the next stop coming in Detroit to take on the Red Wings.

San Jose is just 7-17-2 for the season, making the Sharks the second-worst team in the NHL. However, San Jose has found some success on its road trip, posting a 2-2 record after defeating the Devils and Islanders. The Red Wings have found even more success as of late, as Detroit has won three straight games and is 6-1 in its last seven.

Both squads have some momentum on their side, and our model believes that will enable the Sharks to keep things close. Let’s take a look at why that is.

San Jose Sharks

• Offense has been bad all season, but is showing signs of life

  • GF/60 in 5-on-5 over last four games is 3.92 (9th in NHL)

  • Outscoring opponents 16-13 across last three games

• However, defense still looks horrific

  • Surrendering 16.66 high-danger scoring chances in 5-on-5 (HDCA/60) during road trip

  • Allowing 39.75 shots on goal per game in that stretch

• Expected goalie- Mackenzie Blackwood

  • .908 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 36th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with +0.2

Detroit Red Wings

• Hottest team in NHL at the moment

  • 6-1 in last seven games. +16 goal differential in that time

  • Have scored five goals in three consecutive games

• Offense is due for steep regression

  • 4.28 GF/60 in 5-on-5 across last seven games, but xGF/60 in that time is just 2.91

  • Generating just 10.83 high-danger chances in 5-on-5 in last seven- 8th fewest in NHL

• Expected goalie- Ville Husso

  • .905 Save % in 5-on-5. Ranks 57th in GSAx (-2.9)

What’s the Play?

Puck line bets are rather unprofitable in the long run, but we agree with our model that this is a solid spot to take San Jose +1.5.

Detroit has been nearly unstoppable in the last seven games, but the underlying metrics are concerning. For one thing, the Red Wings have put little to no pressure on opposing goaltenders, so high quality scoring chances are few and far between. Additionally, the -1.37-goal gap between Detroit’s GF/60 and xGF/60 in those seven games is rather significant, and shows that what the Wings are doing offensively is not sustainable.

Let’s not get it twisted. The Sharks are still a bad hockey team, but San Jose has now covered the puck line in six of its last seven and is starting to at least look like a competent offense. Getting the Sharks on the puck line at -105 is great value given what they’ve accomplished recently and the pending regression for the Red Wings.

The Play: Sharks +1.5 (-105)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Detroit Red Wings- 14-7-3 overall this season, 3-0 in last three games

• Philadelphia Flyers- 13-10-2 overall this season, 7-4-1 as the away team

• Vancouver Canucks- 16-9-1 overall this season, 8-3-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Kings- Under is 12-8-2 this season with average total of 6.27

• Vancouver Canucks- Over is 15-8-3 this season with average total of 6.58

Puck Line Trends ➕➖

• Buffalo Sabres- Puck line is 15-11 this season

• Philadelphia Flyers- Puck line is 18-7 this season

💪 Patrick Kane to make season debut vs Sharks. Former Chicago Blackhawks forward Patrick Kane is poised to begin his tenure with the Red Wings after inking a one-year contract with his erstwhile rivals. Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde expressed his anticipation for Kane's debut, expecting the seasoned player to take the ice Thursday evening against the San Jose Sharks. Kane signed a $2.75 million deal with Detroit last month, a decision that took longe than expected because of Kane undergoing hip surgery.