In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NCAA and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 0-2 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 5-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-4

Spread Predictions: 3-2-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 6-7

Over/Under Predictions: 4-9

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There are 14 NFL games scheduled to take place this week, and our model has predictions for all 14 matchups. Those predictions can be found below.

Jacksonville Jaguars @Indianapolis Colts

Model Predicts- Jaguars ML, Under 46, Jaguars -4.5

Two AFC South rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts, will begin the 2023 season on Sunday in Indianapolis.

Jacksonville is coming off a 9-8 season in 2022, one highlighted by a comeback playoff victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Meanwhile, Indianapolis was just 4-12-1 last season, and now has a new head coach and quarterback running the show.

These teams split the season series a season ago, but our model likes the Jags to win and cover the spread on the road. Let’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Clear favorite in AFC South (-155). Titans next best odds at +350

• Has chance to be most explosive offense in 2023

  • Travis Etienne (1,000 yard rusher in 2022), Christian Kirk (1,000 yard receiver in 2022), Evan Engram (766 yards in 2022), drafted Auburn running back Tank Bigsby

  • Now add Calvin Ridley to lineup- Had just under 1,400 yards in last full season

• Questionable defense, but strong in some areas

  • 2022- allowed 353 yards per game, bottom 10 in sacks

  • Ranked 8th in pass rush win rate. Could fluster rookie QB

Indianapolis Colts

• Franchise with no stability and loads of drama

  • New head coach (Shane Steichen), new quarterback (Anthony Richardson), no Jonathan Taylor to begin season

• Richardson- drafted No.4 overall, but is massive project who struggles with the pass

  • Completed just 54% of passes in college, lowest of any first round pick since 2011

  • Threw 24 touchdowns in college, fewest of any first round pick since 2001

  • Completed just 44% of passes in preseason

• 2022- Colts ranked 31st in pass rush win rate, 32nd in pass block win rate

• Bad to begin season- Just 1-13-1 against the spread in Week 1 since 2008

What’s the Play?

A lot of hype is surrounding the Jacksonville Jaguars in a poor AFC South division, and we feel that is warranted, at least to begin the season.

Richardson has all the talent in the world and can gash a defense with his legs, but his inability to throw the football will limit Indianapolis on offense. The Colts’ offensive line is susceptible to the pass rush, which Jacksonville has proven it can generate, which we think will force an inexperienced quarterback into making some mistakes.

Jacksonville’s offensive line isn’t much better, but the talent, experience, and stability on the offensive side of the ball gives the Jags a big edge in today’s matchup. We’ll back Jacksonville as a road favorite at 4.5 points.

The Play: Jaguars -4.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Jacksonville Jaguars- 10-9 overall in 2022, 4-2 against division opponents (Play AFC South rival Indianapolis this afternoon)

• Philadelphia Eagles- 16-4 overall in 2022, 7-0 as an away favorite

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tennessee Titans- Under was 12-5 in 2022, 6-3 as the away team

• New Orleans Saints- Under was 11-6 in 2022, 5-3 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Indianapolis Colts- 1-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2008

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at NFL.com.

🤕 Cooper Kupp lands on IR. Due to a persistent hamstring injury, the Los Angeles Rams have decided to place wide receiver Cooper Kupp on injured reserve. The move will sideline him for a minimum of four games, including matchups against Seattle, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and San Francisco. Rams coach Sean McVay had previously mentioned the possibility of this move as they prioritize Kupp's recovery over rushing him back from the hamstring issue, which he first suffered during a training camp practice on August 1 and aggravated recently.

👎 Mark Andrews unlikely to play Week 1. The Baltimore Ravens will unveil an upgraded and more dynamic offensive strategy this season, but they will be without their All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews in Week 1. Ian Rapoport reports that Andrews will be sidelined for the season opener due to a lingering quad injury that originated during joint practice sessions with the Washington Commanders. Andrews, a three-time Pro Bowler in the previous season, recorded 73 receptions for 847 yards and five touchdowns across 15 games in 2022.

💰 Vikings, Jefferson can’t come to terms on extension. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is unlikely to sign a contract extension before the team's season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both Jefferson and the Vikings made efforts to reach a deal, but they now plan to revisit negotiations after the season. The 24-year-old All-Pro receiver, who led the league in receptions and receiving yards last season, expressed his desire for a new contract but acknowledged that the decision ultimately rests with the team's ownership.

There are 15 MLB games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 10, Red Sox +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox will close out their three-game series on Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park.

Baltimore is in line for the sweep today after defeating Boston in Games 1 and 2, and has also won seven consecutive games. Meanwhile, Boston has lost four consecutive games and is just 3-5 since September 1st.

Continue reading below to see our shortened analysis and best bet for this matchup.

Baltimore Orioles

• Picked up 90th win of season yesterday. Now own four-game lead in AL East and are 7-1 in September

• Offense has been red hot- posting 145 wRC+, .359 BABIP, and .894 OPS since September 1st (FanGraphs)

  • Rank in top 4 of MLB in all categories. Also own 9.9% walk rate, showing ability to get on base

• Have scored 34 runs over last three games. Have hit 9 homers and have seen wRC+ rise to 186 in that span

• Grayson Rodriguez (5-3 record, 4.91 ERA) will start on the mound. Struggled early in year, but owns 2.85 ERA and 3.15 FIP in nine starts since his return from minor leagues on July 17th. Also owns 54.6% ground ball rate and has only surrendered 3 home runs in that time

Boston Red Sox

• Have lost 5 of 8 games in September

  • 2 wins against Royals, 1 against Rays. Have lost four straight games, all to division opponents

• Rank 24th in wRC+ and 26th in on base % this month. Also own a 27.8% strikeout rate to a 5.6% walk rate, showing the team is having trouble seeing the ball

• Owns 9th worst ERA in September (4.63), but gets some relief on mound with Brayan Bello (11-8 record, 3.61 ERA)

• Bello is vulnerable to hard contact, ranking in the bottom 18% of majors in MLB in Hard Hit rate (Baseball Savant). But, he generates ground balls often (56.3% GB%), which usually go his way while on the mound. Still, his xERA sits at 4.18, signaling regression in the future.

What’s the Play?

Two great pitchers will take the mound in this matchup, and even though Bello’s surface-level numbers are stronger than Rodriguez’s, we agree with our model that Baltimore can win today.

No one has been able to figure out Rodriguez since he returned to the majors. The 23-year-old’s 97.5mph fastball is a big reason why, and he will likely continue his stellar play against a Red Sox offense that has ranked in the bottom 10 this month despite a 12 run outburst yesterday.

Meanwhile, regression is on the way for Bello, and his vulnerability to hard contact is bad news against an Orioles team that is red hot at the plate. Our model thinks the Orioles should be favorites at -120, so we’ll take them at -110.

The Play: Orioles ML (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 87-56 overall this season, 49-25 as the home team

• Baltimore Orioles- 90-51 overall this season, 7-0 in last 7 games

• Chicago Cubs- 76-67 overall this season, 40-34 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 76-62-4 this season, 24-14 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore today)

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 73-61-8 this season, 39-27-5 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 72-61-8 this season, 42-26-6 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 89-55 overall this season, 43-31 as the home team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🔥 Orioles stay hot in Boston. The Baltimore Orioles held off the Boston Red Sox 13-12 in a dramatic contest, securing their seventh consecutive victory. James McCann delivered two home runs for the Orioles, who had leads of 7-2 in the fourth, 12-6 in the seventh, and 13-9 in the ninth, thanks to key homers by Aaron Hicks, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg. The win was also Baltimore’s 90th of the season, already surpassing last year’s total of 83.

🙌 Braves retire Andruw Jones’ number. Andruw Jones, a 10-time Gold Glove winner and former Braves player, had his No. 25 jersey retired by the team on Saturday night. Jones is the 11th Braves player or manager to receive this honor, joining the ranks of legends like Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, Warren Spahn, and Phil Niekro. The jersey retirement is though to put Jones one step closer to the Hall of Fame, with Jones receiving the fourth-highest vote percentage at 58.1% in 2023’s election.

🤕 Luis Severino out for rest of season. Luis Severino's future with the New York Yankees appears uncertain as he was placed on the injured list due to a high-grade left oblique strain, effectively ending his season. Severino suffered the injury in the fifth inning in a start against Milwaukee, forcing him to exit the game. The 29-year-old, who is set to become a free agent after this season, has struggled with injuries and performance issues, with a 4-8 record and a 6.65 ERA.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which current football analyst at Fox was a three-year starting quarterback at Colorado from 2003-2005?

Question #2- Cooper Kupp is the only receiver in NFL history to ever have a 2,000 yard season. What college did Kupp attend?

Question #3- The University of Idaho has only had one first-round NFL draft pick since 1986. Can you name that player?

Anyone know what has happened on September 10th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 10th…

1989- Indianapolis Colts running back Eric Dickerson rushed for 106 yards against the San Francisco 49ers, his 91st career game. The performance gave Dickerson 10,000 yards for his career, making him the youngest person in NFL history to reach the milestone. Dickerson would end his career with 13,259 rush yards, the ninth most in NFL history.

1990- The New York Yankees lose to the Oakland Athletics for the 12th time, marking the first time in franchise history that the Yanks were swept in a season series. Oakland had dominated the Yankees several years prior and after 1990 as well, either beating them or tying the season series from 1985-1993. Losing was nothing new for the Yanks in 1990 though, a season in which they went 67-95.

1997- MLB slugger Mark McGwire becomes the second player in MLB history to hit at least 50 home runs in consecutive seasons. McGwire joined Babe Ruth on the list, and him and Sammy Sosa would later become to only players to surpass 50 homer in four straight seasons. McGwire ended his career with 583 home runs, ranking him 11th all-time.

1. Joel Klatt

2. Eastern Washington

3. Mike Iupati