In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday in the MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions and making them 3-star Plays. Those predictions went 2-0 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Spread Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 0-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-0

Puck Line Predictions: 0-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 9-2-2

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

3-star Predictions: 2-0

Today we have one NBA game scheduled to take place, and Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat. Miami jumped out to an early 3-0 series lead, but Boston has won the last two games and our model likes them to win another tonight, albeit by a small margin.

Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 210.5, Heat +3

The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will make the trip back to South Beach for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday.

Miami looked like it was going to coast to the NBA Finals after obtaining an early 3-0 series lead, but that has not been the case. Boston has risen from the ashes on both ends of the floor and has now won the last two games, making this series interesting once agin.

The momentum has clearly flipped in Boston’s favor, but the Heat have been a tough team to be at at home in the postseason. Will we see the strong play at home continue, or will Boston tie the series and be one step closer to making history?

Boston Celtics

The first three games of this series were arguably the worst we basketball we saw from Boston this season, a surprise considering how well the Celtics played during the regular season and how close they were to winning the title in 2022.

The sudden collapse on the defensive end of the floor is where most of the blame should be placed. Boston’s Defensive Rating spiked to 124.4 during the first three games of the ECF, more than a 13.0 point increase from its Defensive Rating in the first two rounds.

Why the sudden spike? Well, it was largely because Boston failed to establish a defensive presence on the perimeter, something that is very out of the ordinary for the Celtics.

In 82 regular season games the Celtics held their opponents to shooting just 34.5% from behind the arc, per NBA.com. However, in Games 1 through 3 of this series we saw that percentage rise to 47.8%, which is quite shocking considering Miami is one of the lower ranked three-point shooting squads.

Despite the defensive woes, Boston now finds itself back in this series, holding Miami to under 100 points in Games 4 and 5. That kid of defensive play is going to need to continue, because if Boston reverts back to its old ways then its season will over.

Miami Heat

The Heat have been spectacular in the postseason, but seeing them fall back down to Earth should not be a surprise.

The Round 1 slaughter of the Milwaukee Bucks was simply unsustainable. After averaging an NBA low 109.5 points per game in the regular season, Miami averaged 124.0 points per game in Round 1 and walked away with a series victory in five games.

Everyone expected Miami to take care of business against New York after that kind of performance, which they did rather easily. However, we saw Miami escape with a series victory after averaging just 104.3 points per game, an average that is much more indicative of how the Heat play.

Now we’re in the Eastern Conference Final, where Miami’s scoring average has jumped back up to a reasonable 111.6. Despite the return to normalcy, Miami has been held to under 100 points in each of the last two games after averaging 120.7 in Games 1 through 3. As previously mentioned, Miami shot nearly 48% from three in the first three games, but that has fallen sharply to 30.9% in the last two games.

The offense is inconsistent, and the potential absence of Gabe Vincent means that Miami’s offensive struggles from the perimeter could continue. That puts the Heat in a bad spot against one of the best teams in the NBA.

What’s the Play?

This has easily been the most unpredictable series recent memory, but we agree with our model that Miami can keep things close here.

The Heat are very close to being on the wrong side of history and going back to Boston for Game 7 would be a nightmare scenario, making tonight as close to a must-win game as it gets. Luckily for Miami it is 6-1 at home in postseason, showing a level of comfortability on its home floor.

Boston is 5-3 on the road in the playoffs, but the consistent lack of a perimeter presence on the defensive end is a concern. The Celtics have figured it out recently, but are still allowing opponents to shoot 38.8% from three in eight road playoff games.

We would wait until Gabe Vincent’s status is confirmed, but we believe going back home in a high-pressure situation is going to benefit the Heat here. They’e certainly come back down to Earth, but we feel that they can reverse that trend tonight.

3-star play: Heat +3 (-110)

Money Line Trends💰

• Boston Celtics- 10-8 overall in postseason, 5-3 as the away team

• Miami Heat- 11-5 overall in postseason, 6-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Boston Celtics- Over is 11-7 overall in postseason, 6-2 as the away team with average total of 229.13

• Miami Heat- Over is 11-5 overall in postseason, 4-3 as the home team with average total of 212.43

Spread Trends➕➖

• Boston Celtics- 10-8 against the spread (ATS) in postseason, 5-3 ATS as the away team

• Miami Heat- 11-5 ATS in postseason, 5-2 as the home team

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat

• Boston Celtics

  • Malcolm Brogdon (Game Time Decision), Danilo Gallinari (OUT)

• Miami Heat

  • Gabe Vincent (Game Time Decision), Tyler Herro (OUT), Victor Oladipo (OUT)

There is one NHL game scheduled to take place with evening, with that game being Game 5 of the Western Conference Final between the Dallas Stars and Las Vegas Golden Knights.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Dallas Stars- 9-8 overall in postseason, 3-5 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 11-4 overall in postseason, 6-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Dallas Stars- Over is 9-8 overall in postseason, 5-3 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 8-7 overall in postseason, 5-3 as the home team

Puck Line Trends➕➖

• Dallas Stars- Puck line is 8-9 overall in postseason, 4-4 as the away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 10-5 overall in postseason, 4-4 as the home team

Dallas Stars @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Dallas Stars

  • Jamie Benn (Suspension), Evgenii Dadonov (OUT)

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (OUT)

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, withe the first beginning at 1:05 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in the early season data and delays in lines being posted, our model has predictions for eight of today’s matchups.

Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 9, Orioles +1.5

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will face off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday afternoon in Baltimore.

Texas got the best of Baltimore in Game 1, cruising to a 12-2 victory after an eight-run fourth inning. That was the third consecutive win for the Rangers and the sixth in their last seven games.

These are easily two of the better teams in the MLB this season, but the battle on the mound leans heavily in the underdog’s favor. Will Texas be able to use that to its advantage and get another road win, or will Baltimore bounce back from last night’s disaster.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are on track to demolish last season’s win total of 68. The Rangers have gotten better in multiple areas, but the improved offense has pushed Texas towards the top of the MLB after being buried in the basement last season.

TeamRankings has the Rangers ranked first in the majors in runs per game with 6.44. That is 0.42 runs higher than the next closest team (Tampa Bay), 1.02 runs higher than the Dodgers in third, and their average run total per game in 2023 is a 2.08 run improvement from last season’s 4.36 average.

That has been combined with tremendous pitching across the board. The offseason signing of Nathan Eovaldi has been huge for this pitching staff, and even though Jacob deGrom is injured he played a role while healthy. The bullpen has some work to do (4.73 ERA), but Texas often gets high mileage out of its starters to minimize that damage.

Andrew Heaney (3-3 record, 4.13 ERA) is set to get the start today for Texas. His 4.13 ERA could raise some questions, but according to Baseball Savant Heaney owns a 3.61 xERA, a sign that he has been slightly unlucky on the mound.

Heaney also ranks in the top 12% of the MLB in Hard Hit rate and owns a 25.7% strikeout rate. Opposing hitters are having a tough time making solid contact against Heaney, and that put Texas in a good spot every time he is on the mound.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles find themselves near the top of a loaded AL East division, but their worst pitcher, Dean Kremer, is set to take the mound today.

Despite hit 4.61 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, Kremer is 5-1 on the season. That record is extremely deceiving for a multitude of reasons, and when you start to dive into his performance you see why he is one of the worst pitchers in the MLB.

To start, Kremer enters today’s matchup with a 6.77 xERA, per Baseball Savant. That is more than 2.0 runs higher than his current ERA, and his xERA ranks in the bottom 6% of the MLB.

The difference between the two stats is due to opposing hitters sizing up Kremer on a consistent basis. His 11.4% Barrel rate ranks in the bottom 16% of the majors and is well above the MLB average of 6.8%, which has led to Kremer posting a .305 xBA across 52.2 innings.

Kremer leans much more heavily on his fastball this season, throwing it on 38.1% of his pitchers in 2023 compared to 32.7% in 2022. Hitters have clearly caught on to this and are ready to light him up, which will likely lead to another shaky performance on the mound this afternoon.

What’s the Play?

Andrew Heaney is much better than his stats indicated, while Dean Kremer is much worse than his stats indicate. As a result, we’ll take the best offense in the league with the better pitcher to win today’s matchup as an underdog.

Texas often lights up whoever is on the mound, but their success against right-handed pitchers, which Kremer is, is among the league’s elite. Per StatMuse Texas ranks third in OPS against righties at .785, and according to FanGraphs rank second in Hard Hit % and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.

Texas should have no problems jumping on Kremer today, who has overachieved in recent starts. Our model says Texas should be the favorite with odds around -130, so we’ll take a chance on them to win again this afternoon as an underdog.

3-star play: Rangers ML (+100)

Money Line Trends💰

• Minnesota Twins- 26-25 overall, 15-11 as the home team

• Texas Rangers- 32-18 overall this season, 16-10 as the away team

• Los Angeles Angels- 28-24 overall this season, 15-11 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Texas Rangers- Over is 30-18-2 overall, 21-9-1 coming off a win

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 27-21-3 overall, 9-7-1 coming off a loss

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 25-22-4 overall, 13-12-2 as the away team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 33-18 overall, highest win percentage in MLB

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

😬 Aaron Boone gets suspended after ejection. New York Yankees skipper Aaron Boone has been shy with umpires this season, resulting in an MLB-leading fourth ejection the other night. It appears that the league has had enough of his antics, forcing him to miss Friday night’s game for his conduct. Boone is no stranger to ejections, leading the MLB with nine last season while getting tossed six times in 2021, and we doubt that much a one-game suspension is going to change anything.

💪 Craig Kimbrel notches 400th career save. Craig Kimbrel has been an elite clsoer for many years, and last night he become the eighth pitcher in MLB history to reach the 400 save milestone. Kimbrel got the save last night in a 6-4 victory over the Atlanta Braves, the team he recorded 186 saves with from 2010-2014. Kenley Jansen, the closer for the Boston Red Sox, reached the 400 save milestone earlier this season as well, with both Kimbrel and Jansen accomplishing the feat in less than 800 appearances.

👋 Arizona releases DeAndre Hopkins. The Arizona Cardinals found themselves in the headlines after releasing wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on Friday after the team could not find a trade for the Pro Bowl wideout. Hopkins’ future with Arizona started to come into question this offseason, resulting in teams like the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots being thrown into the trade rumors. Hopkins recently said that he would want to play with some of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, such as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, and now there is a chance we could see him catching passes from one of those guys in a few months.

🚀 Keyontae Johnson cleared for NBA Draft. Kansas State standout Keyontae Johnson has been cleared by the NBA’s Fitness to Play panel and is now eligible for the NBA Draft, per Adrian Wojnarowski. If you recall, Johnson began his collegiate career at the University of Florida, but his basketball career came into jeopardy after he collapsed on the court in 2020. He would not play basketball for the next few seasons, but transferred to Kansas State after being cleared to play again where he averaged 17.4 points and 6.8 rebounds per game last season. Johnson was an All-American selection as well, making him an intriguing prospect leading up to the draft.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. Winning an NCAA championship and an NBA title is something that very few people have done, especially coaches. However, one coach did reach basketball’s mountaintop in both the NCAA and NBA. Who was that coach?

2. From sixth round draft pick to future Hall of Famer, Tom Brady had quite the career in the NFL. Brady is always in the conversation when discussing the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, mostly because of his success in the Super Bowl. How many Super Bowl wins does Tom Brady have?

3. An NBA team known as the Jazz now resides in the state of Utah, but that was not the first place that the Jazz called home. What city were the Jazz originally in before relocating in 1979?

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1. Larry Brown

2. Seven

3. New Orleans, Louisiana