In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-4

Over/Under Predictions: 5-7

Run Line Predictions: 4-8

Featured Matchup: 1-0

There are a plethora of NCAA Football games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for 15 of those matchups. You can see those predictions below.

Florida Gators @ Kentucky Wildcats

Model Predicts- Kentucky ML, UNDER 44, Kentucky -1.5

The Florida Gators will make the trip to Lexington, Kentucky on Saturday to take on the Kentucky Wildcats.

Florida enters today’s matchup ranked No.22 in the country, with a huge win at home over Tennessee a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Kentucky is a perfect 4-0 and looking to extend their win streak to five.

The Wildcats have had a cake walk of a schedule thus far, but that isn’t stopping our model from predicting them to win this game and cover the spread at home. Let’s dive into why that is and see what our model’s best bet is for today’s matchup.

Florida Gators

• One win over ranked opponent this season (Tennessee), but haven’t impressed otherwise

  • Wins over Charlotte and McNeese State as well

  • One loss was on road at Utah- was 5.5-point underdog

• Graham Mertz has been solid, but doesn’t make passing game a huge threat

  • 77.8% completion percentage- leads SEC

  • Heavily favors Ricky Pearsall, who has 26 catches and 362 yards

    • No one else on team has more than 12 receptions

  • Only 1 pass play of 50+ yards, per cfbstats

  • 33% Success Rate on passing downs

• Luckily have solid defense

  • Great at stopping the run- holding opponents to 2.88 yards per carry

  • Don’t generate much pressure though- 7 sacks through 4 games, 16.7% Havoc rate

  • Vulnerable to explosive plays- 8 plays of 40+ yards, 2 of 60+ yards

Kentucky Wildcats

• Weak schedule through four weeks

  • Wins over Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt

  • +90 point differential across those matchups

• Offense still needs some work

  • QB Devin Leary- 58.9% completion %, 5 interceptions

    • 8.6 yards per pass attempt (39th in country)

  • 41% Success rate overall, 37% on passing downs

  • Rushing attack is most efficient part- 5.48 yards per carry, 131.5 yards per game on ground

• Solid defense

  • 11 sacks through four games

  • Opponent Success Rate on passing downs of 28%

  • Have limited explosive plays- only allowed one play to go for 40+ yards

What’s the Play?

An unranked home favorite against a ranked conference opponent isn’t something we see that often. However, that is exactly what we have on our hands today in Lexington, and we agree with our model to back the Wildcats.

Kentucky possesses the perfect combination of creating explosive plays on offense and limiting them on defense, while Florida can’t generate explosive plays and can’t stop them. That is going to open up the door for the Wildcats to be in scoring position all afternoon.

Additionally, Florida has struggled mightily on the road with Billy Napier as head coach. Per TeamRankings, the Gators are just 1-4 straight up as the road team, while at home Florida is 8-2. We’ve seen that trend continue this season, where Florida is 0-1 on the road and 3-0 at home.

Our model believes Kentucky should be a -170 favorite today, so we’ll gladly take the Wildcats at -120.

The Play: Kentucky ML (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Florida- 1-4 overall as the away team with Billy Napier as head coach

• Ole Miss- 3-1 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

• Duke- 4-0 overall this season, 1-0 as a home underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Vanderbilt- Over is 5-0 this season with average point total of 65.2 points

• Arizona- Under is 4-0 overall this season, 2-0 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Kentucky- 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-1 ATS as the home team

📝 Candidates emerging for Michigan State coaching job. Michigan State is actively seeking a new head football coach following the firing of Mel Tucker, with several potential candidates emerging. The Athletic's Bruce Feldman reports that two up-and-coming Power 5 coaches, Lance Leipold of Kansas and Jake Dickert of Washington State, are top contenders for the position. Leipold, known for his successful tenure at Buffalo, has led Kansas to improved performance, while Dickert has revitalized Washington State's program and stands out as a relatively young Power 5 head coach.

💪 Aggies land top-25 recruit. Texas A&M secured a commitment from highly-rated athlete Terry Bussey for their 2024 class. Standing at 5-foot-11 and weighing 185 pounds, Bussey has been recruited as both a receiver and defensive back by schools like Oklahoma, Texas, LSU, and Alabama, ultimately choosing the Aggies. Bussey, who was named Mr. Texas Football as a junior, boasts impressive stats, excelling as a versatile player on both sides of the ball.

There are 16 MLB games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 11 of today’s matchups.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

Model Predicts- Reds ML, OVER 9, Reds -1.5

The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will face off in Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday night in St. Louis.

The Reds took care of the Cardinals with ease in Game 1, defeating the struggling Cards 19-2. The win was the third in the last four games for Cincinnati, while the loss was the eighth in the last ten games for St. Louis.

The Reds still have a chance to secure a spot in the postseason, a big reason why we chose to back them last night. However, our model is seeing some value on the total tonight, so let’s dive into why that is.

Cincinnati Reds

• Exploded on offense last night

  • Scored 19 total runs, 14 of which came in the first four innings

  • 17 total hits, two walks, and six home runs

• That kind of offense has been nothing new for the Reds

  • Ranks 1st in wRC+ (159) over the last six games

  • Also rank 1st in on base % (.382), 1st OPS (.994), and 5th in BABIP (.322)

  • Have hit 17 home runs and are averaging 9.00 runs per game in that stretch

• Connor Phillips (1-0 record, 5.66 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Has only pitcher 20.2 innings this season, but has consistently been scored on

  • Struggles with control (10.8% walk rate)

  • Vulnerable to barrel (10.7% Barrel rate) and struggles to keep balls on ground (33.9% GB rate)

St. Louis Cardinals

• Recorded 91st loss of season last night

• Pitching staff has been responsible for most of team’s struggles

  • 4.84 ERA and 4.44 FIP this season- rank in bottom nine in both categories

  • Group has gotten even worse in September

    • ERA and FIP have risen to 5.24 and 5.45, respectively, this month

    • 16.2% strikeout rate- lowest in MLB

• Drew Rom (1-4 record, 7.98 ERA) will get start on mound

  • 15.97 ERA and 3.23 WHIP over last 6.2 innings pitched

  • Doesn’t generate swings and misses- 16.9% strikeout and whiff rate

  • 13.1% barrel rate and 47.7% hard hit rate has led to his downfall on the mound

What’s the Play?

Is an offensive explosion like last night like to happen again today? No. But, is there a chance that we see another high-scoring contest? Yes.

Neither one of today’s starting pitchers has faired well on the mound this season, and it is mostly due to putting balls on the barrel. That opens up the door for home runs and extra base hits, which of course will help run up the score.

St. Louis’ offense has been ugly as of late, but Cincinnati’s has been the best in the league over the last week and has already proven it can carry us to the over by itself. We’ll take the over at its current total of nine.

The Play: Over 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 97-63 overall this season, 44-35 as the away team

• Cincinnati Reds- 82-78 overall this season, 44-35 as the away team

• Seattle Mariners- 87-73 overall this season, 32-18 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Texas today)

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Reds- Over is 8-3 as a road favorite this season, 4-2 in last six games

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 81-75-4 this season, 27-23 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore today)

• San Francisco Giants- Under is 89-67-4 this season, second highest win % in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• San Francisco Giants- Run line is 19-9 overall as a home underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

👋 Giants fire Gabe Kapler after four seasons. The San Francisco Giants have terminated the contract of manager Gabe Kapler, marking the end of his four-year tenure. Since their impressive 107-win season in 2021, the Giants have struggled, finishing 81-81 in 2022 and falling to 78-81 this year. Despite the strong rapport between Kapler and Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, the team has faced challenges in maintaining their competitive edge, with an aging roster and a limited talent pipeline.

👎Padres officially eliminated from playoffs. The San Diego Padres will spend the offseason reflecting on their disappointing season as they were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Friday. Manny Machado, in a postgame pep talk, acknowledged that they had fallen short but expressed optimism about their potential for improvement. Despite winning 12 of their last 14 games, the Padres, with the third-highest payroll in MLB, finished the season at .500 (80-80), marking the second time in the wild-card era that the top three spenders (Mets, Yankees, and Padres) all missed the playoffs.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers own the NBA record for the most losses in a season. How many games did Philadelphia lose that year?

Question #2- Nolan Ryan and Cap Anson hold the record for the longest MLB careers. How many seasons did each player play?

Question #3- Who was the first African-American head coach to win the Super Bowl?

Anyone know what has happened on September 30th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 30th…

1962- The New York Mets lose their 120th game of the season. The loss was sustained against the Chicago Cubs, who turned a triple-play to win the game. The 120 losses are the second-most by any team in one season, with the 1899 Cleveland Spiders holding the crown with 134 losses.

1992- Kansas City Royals legend George Brett records his 3,000th career hit in a 4-0 win over the California Angels. Brett reached the milestone by recording a hit in four of his five at-bats that day, which ended up being 25% of the hits the Royals collected in the game. He would retire 3,154 hits, ranking him 18th on the all-time list.

2018- The New York Yankees hit their 267th home run as a team in a game against the Boston Red Sox. New York would end up losing the game 10-2, but the 267 homers set a new MLB record for one season. The Yankees would go on to hit 306 home runs the following season, but were taken down by the Twins, who hit just one more home run that year to set the new record.

1. 73

2. 27

3. Tony Dungy