Nothing Like Some Day Baseball

Let's Get Some More Winners Before the NBA Comes Back

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

  • Yesterday’s Model Recap

  • NBA News

  • NHL News

  • MLB Model Predictions, Analysis, Trends, and News

  • What Else is Cooking?

  • Trivia Questions

  • On This Day in History…

    Let’s not waste any more time. Who wants to be a winner today?

Yesterday’s Model Recap

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star Play. Those predictions went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the MLB model performed as a whole below.

MLB Model Results

Money Line Predictions: 6-6

Over/Under Predictions: 9-3

Run Line Predictions: 5-7

3-star Predictions: 1-0

NBA🏀

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro (Logan Riely/Getty Images)

🗓 NBA releases NBA Finals schedule. The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat are gearing up for what will likely be an awesome NBA Finals, and we received some clarification about the timeline of the series. Game 1 will take place on June 1st in Denver, and Game 7 will be played on June 18th, if necessary. The first four games of the series will played in the span of nine days, but if this series dares to go longer than that then we will have to wait an additional nine days for Games 5 through 7 to be completed. No surprise there, but I don’t think anyone would mind watching another Game 7, even if it takes almost three weeks to get there.

👋 Warriors general manager Bob Myers steps down. Bob Myers has been the general manager of one of the greatest dynasties in recent history, but he has called it quits after 11 seasons with Golden State, per Adrian Wojnarowski. Myers was reportedly offered a new deal that would make him one of the NBA’s highest-paid executives, but said his decision to step down had to do with other factors besides money. Myers was a two-time Executive of the Year Award winner and a four-time NBA champion in his time with Golden State.

🎯Tyler Herro targeting an NBA Finals return. The Miami Heat have done so many impressive things in the postseason to make the NBA Finals as a No.8 seed, but what makes it even more remarkable is that Tyler Herro has been absent for nearly the entire playoff run. Herro suffered a broken hand in Game 1 of Miami’s series against the Bucks, sidelining him for the last 17 games. However, Herro has his eyes on returning to the court in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, giving an already deep Heat team more depth on the perimeter. He averaged 20.1 points per game in the regular season while shooting 37.8% from three.

NHL🏒

Former Maple Leafs assistant and new Capitals head coach Spencer Carbery (Kevin Sousa/Getty Images)

📋 Predators, Capitals find new head coaches. As with every offseason in professional sports, head coaches were sent packing after failing to rise to the occasion. The Nashville Predators and Washington Capitals were no exception after failing to make the playoffs, but as of yesterday both squads have found a new bench boss. Nashville let John Hynes go after the regular season, but is replacing him with former Devils associate coach Andrew Brunette. Washington will replace Peter Laviolette with former Toronto Maple Leafs assistant Spencer Carbery, two moves that each franchise hopes will return their team to glory.

MLB⚾️

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Zach Eflin (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

Today’s Model Predictions

There are 14 MLB games scheduled to take place on this fine Wednesday, plenty of action to help get us through the middle of the week. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for nine of today’s matchups.

Three-Star Plays⭐️⭐️⭐️

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago Cubs
Model Predicts- Rays ML, Under 9, Cubs +1.5

The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs will finish off their three-game series this afternoon at Wrigley field.

Surprisingly, Tampa Bay has yet to win a game in the series, entering today 0-2. The Rays fell victim to a complete game shutout by Marcus Stroman on Monday, and then scored just one run against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs bullpen yesterday.

Even though they have yet to get in the win column, Tampa Bay has held Chicago to only three total runs in this series. We’ve seen some great duels on the mound so far, but will that continue today with Zach Eflin and Justin Steele set to take the mound for their respective teams? Let’s take a look.

Tampa Bay Rays

Zach Eflin (7-1 record, 3.17) struggled to find his footing as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Eflin was a starter for most of his tenure in Philadelphia, but slowly drifted out of the rotation and into the bullpen as the Phillies made their World Series push.

However, Eflin looks like an entirely new pitcher since joining the Rays in the offseason, making him one of the best signings of 2023.

Eflin’s 3.17 ERA is stellar, but his 2.98 xERA indicates that he has been even better than the surface-level numbers show. Even with a slight dip in velocity on his sinker and cutter, his two main pitches, Eflin has seen his strikeout rate rise to 24.6% from 20.8% a season ago, per Baseball Savant. He also has incredible control on the mound, walking 3.3% of the batters he faces. That puts him in the top 3% of the MLB.

Eflin isn’t making opposing hitters swing and miss often, but his ability to keep the ball on the ground is among the MLB’s elite. Baseball Savant has Eflin’s ground ball rate sitting at 53.8%, well above the MLB average of 44.8% and a massive increase from 45.6% in 2022.

Last season we saw Eflin throw four main pitches, a sinker, curveball, cutter, and 4-seam fastball. He has ditched the 4-seamer this season, only throwing it 2.8% of the time compared to 15.5% last season, in favor of the cutter and curveball, and it has done wonders for his efficiency on the mound.

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs certainly aren’t the MLB’s best baseball team, entering today with a 24-30 record. However, if you only watched the last two games then one would think this Cubs team is World Series bound.

Chicago has held Tampa Bay to just one run in this series, an impressive accomplishment considering the Rays rank second in runs per game with 5.89, per TeamRankings. Marcus Stroman did all the work in Game 1 with a complete game shutout, and Kyle Hendricks and the bullpen took care of business yesterday.

Justin Steele (6-2 record, 2.77 ERA) will be tasked with continuing the stellar production on the mound today, and we believe he will rise to the occasion.

Steele has gotten hit around in recent starts, allowing 13 earned runs in his last 21.2 innings, but overall he has been great on the mound. Just like Eflin, he isn’t making opposing hitters swing and miss often, but he does a great job at limiting hard contact.

Per Baseball Savant, Steele’s Average Exit Velocity Allowed comes in at just 84.9 mph, putting him within the top 5% of the MLB. His 5.4% Barrel rate has contributed to that, showing that hitters don’t often size him up despite what his 5.52 ERA in his last three starts may indicate.

What’s the Play?

This entire series has been a pitching duel, and we have no reason to believe the same won’t take place again today.

Chicago is ranked in the top half of the MLB in several offensive statistics, but the Cubs oftentimes struggle against right-handed pitchers, which Eflin is. Per ESPN, the Cubs own a .246 batting average and .727 OPS against righties in 2023, compared to .277 and .803 against lefties. We wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggle at the plate today, which has been the case this entire series.

The only mild concern here is that Tampa Bay crushes left-handed pitchers, batting .311 with a .956 OPS. However, we’re going to trust Steele to do what he has done all season long and limit the hard contact, which should keep runs off the board.

Both pitchers are excellent at keeping the ball on the ground, and even though the Rays may get a few runs off Steele, we don’t believe it will be enough to push this total over 9.

3-star play: Under 9 (-115)

Relevant Betting Trends

Money Line Trends💰

  • Los Angeles Angels- 29-27 overall this season, 5-4 in last nine games

  • Tampa Bay Rays- 39-18 overall this season, 13-12 as the away team

  • Houston Astros- 32-22 overall this season, 15-12 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

  • Atlanta Braves- Over is 31-21-3 this season, 12-12-2 as the away team

  • Seattle Mariners- Over is 16-14-1 as the home team, 3-0 in last three games with average total of 11.67

Run Line Trends➕➖

  • Chicago Cubs- Run line is 29-25 overall this season, 16-14 as the home team

  • Washington Nationals- Run line is 34-21 overall this season, 20-7 as a road underdog

Injury Report

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com

News Around the League

🤕Detroit’s Rodriguez, Vierling land on the IL. Eduardo Rodriguez has been excellent on the mound this seaon for the Tigers, but Detroit is going to have to put him on the shelf for what is being called a “left index finger pulley rupture”, per Evan Petzold. Rodriguez is in the midst of a career season, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 67.2 innings of work. Detroit also added Matt Vierling to the IL with back soreness, bad news for a team that is within 2.0 games of Minnesota for first place in the AL Central.

📺 Major League Baseball set to take over Padres broadcasts. You can’t do much in life if you don’t pay your bills, and Diamond Sports will no longer broadcast Padres games because of that reason. Per Alden González, Diamond Sports had until the end of the day to pay the Padres a scheduled rights fee, ultimately deciding not to do so. San Diego becomes the first team that the MLB will take over broadcasts duties for.

✍️ Baltimore signs Aaron Hicks. The New York Yankees cut outfielder Aaron Hicks just ten days ago, but an AL East rival, the Baltimore Orioles, swooped in and signed the veteran on Tuesday. The move comes after Baltimore star outfielder Cedric Mullins was placed on the 10-day IL with a groin strain. Hicks signed an extension with New York in 2019 worth $70 million, but the Yankees clearly had enough of his poor performance after batting .188 with one home run in 28 games. Maybe a change of scenery will reverse Hicks’ fortune, but even if it doesn’t the Yankees still owe him $27.6 million through 2025. So who’s the real winner?

What Else is Cooking🍳

Former Las Vegas Raiders head coach Jon Gruden (Rick Scuteri/AP)

👀 Jon Gruden visits with New Orleans. Former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has been out of the NFL since making some questionable remarks a little while back, but Gruden has reportedly visited the New Orleans Saints after head coach Dennis Allen reached out regarding Derek Carr. Carr was most recently a member of the Las Vegas Raiders prior to joining the Saints earlier in the offseason, meaning he was coached by Gruden for nearly four seasons. Carr was a terrific passer under Gruden, throwing for over 4,000 yards in 2018, 2019, and 2020, so it appears a New Orleans team that finished 22nd in scoring last season is doing everything it can get that same level of play out Carr in 2023.

⁉️ Could we see a DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson reunion? Pro Bowl wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was released by the Arizona Cardinals last week after Arizona failed to find a trade partner for the wideout. That has sparked a myriad of speculation regarding Hopkins’ next destination, and it looks like the Cleveland Browns are throwing their hat in the ring. When asked about Hopkins, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is quoted saying “Of course, we’d love to have him; he knows that. We had a lot of connections”. Watson and Hopkins played together on the Houston Texans from 2017-2019, with Hopkins being a three-time first-team All-Pro selection in that time.

🐻 Caleb Love transfers to Arizona. Caleb Love was a crucial piece to North Carolina’s offense over the last two seasons, but the guard has announced that he will be taking his talents to the University of Arizona. Love had originally committed to the University of Michigan, but the transfer was blocked due to Love not having the required amount of credits to enroll in the university. Love averaged 16.7 points last season, providing an Arizona team that lost to Princeton in Round 1 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament with a boost on the offensive end.

Trivia Section🧠

PGA Tour golfer Jordan Spieth (Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Playing in the World Series is a dream for every baseball player, but some never get the opportunity to represent their team on baseball’s biggest stage. Just ask Rafael Palmeiro, who played 20 seasons in the MLB and holds the record for most games played without a World Series appearance. How many games did Palmeiro play in his career?

Question #2- The New York Yankees have won the World Series 27 times, the most by any franchise in the MLB. New York has often won those games in bunches, tallying two, three, and even four consecutive World Series victories at some point in its history, including going back-to-back in 1977 and 1978. Who was the shortstop for the Yankees in those two seasons?

Question #3- For nearly 100 years, Bobby Jones held the title as the youngest person to win the U.S. Open, that is until Jordan Spieth won the event in 2015 by shooting 5-under par. How old was Spieth when he won the U.S. Open?

On This Day in History🗓

New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath

Anyone know what has happened on May 31st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 31st…

1943- Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Namath is born in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania. Namath would go on to play collegiate football at the University of Alabama before being selected 1st overall in the 1965 AFL Draft by the New York Jets. He would lead that Jets team to a 16-7 Super Bowl victory over the Baltimore Colts in 1969, the third NFL Championship game in league history and the first to be officially called the “Super Bowl”. That win remains the Jets’ only Super Bowl victory to this day.

1983- The Philadelphia 76ers defeat the Los Angeles Lakers in four games in the 37th NBA Championship. Julius Erving and Moses Malone led Philadelphia to the No.1 overall seed in the Eastern Conference that season, ending the regular season with a tremendous 65-17 record. Malone was crowned the MVP of the Finals, averaging a much needed 23.3 points per game in order to take down Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson.

2008- Jamaican track and field star Usain Bolt sets the World Record in the 100 meter dash, running a time of 9.72 seconds at the Reebok Grand Prix in New York. Bolt would just narrowly beat the previous world record of 9.74 seconds, which was held by fellow Jamaican sprinter Asafa Powell. However, Bolt’s record would only stand for one year, with Bolt going on to run 9.58 at the IAAF World Championships in 2009 to beat his previous best.

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Trivia Answers

  1. 2,831

  2. Bucky Dent

  3. 21