In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-6

Over/Under Predictions: 9-4

Run Line Predictions: 6-7

3-star Predictions: 0-1

⁉️ Is Bradley Beal on the move? Th Washington Wizards have been avoiding a rebuild for several season now, but it appears that the franchise is coming to its senses and is considering blowing things up. The rebuild would begin with a trade of Bradley Beal, a trade the Wizards have said they are willing to make should a rebuild take place, per Shams Charania. Beal singned a five-year, $251 million contract extension last offseason, but the high price isn’t expected to deter teams from trading for the three-time All-Star. The stayus Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis is also up in the air, so we think Washington is likely headed for a hard reset in 2023.

🎰 Denver favored to win 2024 title after 2023 victory. The Denver Nuggets won their first NBA title in franchise history on Monday night, and the early futures market has the Nuggets as the favorites to win in 2024 as well. Denver’s odds currently sit at +450 at Draftkings, with the Boston Celtics (+550) and Milwaukee Bucks (+650) rounding out the top three. The Miami Heat, who were runner ups in 2023, have the tenth best odds (+2000) to win the title.

👀 Montreal looking to move up in 2023 draft. The Montreal Canadiens own the fifth overall pick in the upcoming NHL Draft, but that pick doesn’t appear to be good enough for the Canadiens. Per Arpon Basu, the Canadiens are “doing whatever they can” to move up from fifth overall, reaching out to the San Jose Sharks about the No.4 pick and the Anaheim Ducks about the No.2 selection. Connor Bedard is the top prospect in this year’s draft and is virtually guaranteed to be selected first overall by the Blackhawks, but clearly Montreal has their eyes set on another talented player that could turn the Habs around. Montreal finished with 68 points and a 31-45-6 record last season, both the second worse in the Eastern Conference.

🐧 Jason Spezza to join Pittsburgh front office. The Pittsburgh Penguins have hired Jason Spezza to be the team’s assistant general manager on Wednesday. The hiring means Spezza will reunite with the Penguins new President of Hockey Operations, Kyle Dubas, both of whom played big roles in the Maple leafs front office over the last several seasons. Spezza played 19 seasons in the NHL before retiring in 2022, and now will look to turn around a Penguins team that missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006 last season.

There are 10 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, with the first beginning at 1:05 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable when the model was run, our model has predictions for eight of today’s matchups.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, UNDER 9, Blue Jays +1.5

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will end a three-game series on Thursday afternoon in what has been a classic AL East battle.

Baltimore took Game 1 with ease, winning 11-6. However, Toronto would settle in on the mound in Game 2, allowing just one run in a 3-1 victory.

Just like the rest of the American League East, Baltimore and Toronto have found plenty of success this season, but our model believes that Baltimore will win today’s matchup and the series. Will we see that prediction come to fruition, or can Toronto secure its second win in as many days?

Toronto Blue Jays

Chris Bassitt was the man on the mound for Game 1 of this series. He entered that game with a 3.29 ERA, but saw that metric balloon to 4.02 after surrendering eight earned runs and 11 hits in just 3.0 innings.

José Berríos was then given the task of cooling off that Orioles offense yesterday, and he did no problems doing so. Berríos went 7.2 innings in last night’s 3-1 victory, allowing just three hits and zero runs in that time.

The two performances show just how volatile the Blue Jays starting pitching can be, a group that enters today with a 4.03 ERA and 4.17 xFIP, per Fangraphs. Yusei Kikuchi (6-2 record, 4.34 ERA) will be on the mound today for Toronto, and as of late he has provided Toronto with a some stability.

Kikuchi’s last three starts have all been virtually the same: 5.0 innings, two earned runs, and 3-4 hits. Toronto has gone 2-1 in those matchups, posting a +6 run differential in the first five innings with him on the mound.

However, even with the recent success, Kikuchi still has some flaws that make him tough to trust.

Per Baseball Savant, Kikuchi enters today’s matchup with a 5.24 xERA, nearly a full run above his 4.34 season ERA. The variance comes as a result of Kikuchi often surrendering hard contact to his opponents, as evidenced by a 11.7% Barrel rate and 46.4% Hard Hit rate. He ranks in the bottom 13% of the MLB in both metrics, showing that opposing hitters have no problems sizing up the southpaw.

Baltimore Orioles

Tyler Wells (5-2 record, 3.24 ERA) is set to take the mound this afternoon for Baltimore, just the guy the Orioles want to see out there coming off a loss.

Wells has an arsenal of four main pitches: a 4-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and slider. He also breaks out a curveball every now and then, but that pitch is thrown just 8.8% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Each of those pitches has given Wells an edge over opposing hitters all season long. His 4-seamer, changeup, and slider all have an xBA (expected batting average) below .210 and a Whiff rate above 28%, further displaying just how deceiving Wells can be on the mound.

That deception has led to a 0.85 WHIP this season, the best in the MLB this season, per MLB.com. It also helps that Wells ranks in the 89th percentile in walk rate (5.2%), showing that he is in full control while on the mound.

If there is one flaw with Wells its that his 4-seamer has an average velocity of 92.6 mph, putting him in the bottom 19% of the majors. That has led to a 10.2% Barrel rate against that pitch, a metric that is mildly concerning for the pitch he throws the most often.

What’s the Play?

Today’s starting pitching matchup tips the scales towards Baltimore, and as a result we agree with our model that the Orioles money line is a 3-star play.

Yusei Kikuchi’s vulnerability to hard contact is tough to look past, and despite his 6-2 record several metrics indicate that he is due to start allowing more runs. For instance, Kikuchi’s ERA in his last three starts sits at 3.60, but his xFIP in that time is a whopping 6.01. It also doesn’t help Kikuchi’s case that his strikeout rate sits at 22.7%, down form 27.3% a season ago.

Meanwhile, Wells has seen his strikeout rate rise to 26.5% from 18.0% last season, and his ERA to xFIP is 2.50 to 3.67 across his last three starts.

Baltimore has the better pitcher on the mound this afternoon, has a slight edge over the Toronto bullpen, and is batting .258 with a .765 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, per ESPN. Our model thinks Baltimore’s money line odds should be at -135, so we’ll take the O’s at -120.

3-star play: Orioles ML (-120)

Money Line Trends💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 42-25 overall this season, 12-8 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Toronto this afternoon)

• Philadelphia Phillies- 34-34 overall this season, 8-2 in the last ten games

• Texas Rangers- 42-25 overall this season, 22-1 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Minnesota Twins- Under is 37-28-3 this season, 19-13-2 as the home team

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 40-25-2 this season, 18-15-1 as the away team

• San Diego Padres- Under is 43-22-2 this season, highest win % in MLB

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 39-27 overall this season, 24-9 as an away underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🥷 Jesús Sánchez robs Seattle of grand slam in ninth inning. Miami Marlins outfielder Jesús Sánchez made what could likely be the catch of the year at the moment, at least when you consider the context of the catch. Miami had dominated Seattle all night, entering the bottom of the ninth inning up 4-0. However, the Mariners got the bats going late, eventually loading the bases with only one out wIth Eugenio Suárez at the plate. Suárez would get ahold of the very next pitch and send it over the wall, but Sánchez pulled it back into play to keep Miami in the lead, a play that would win the Marlins the game.

💪Philadelphia is back at .500. The 2022 World Series runner up hasn’t quite found its stride yet, but the Phillies are finally back at .500 after a 4-3 victory over Arizona last night. The win was Philadelphia’s eighth in the last ten games, showing that the Fightin’ Phils are finding a rhythm as we approach the half-way mark of the season. The Phillies are now 34-34 on the season and 2.0 games back of the final wild card spot with tons of baseball left to play.

🤕 Vinnie Pasquantino out for remainder of season. The Kansas City Royals haven’t has much to cheer about this season, and yesterday’s news of Vinnie Pasquantino only makes Royals even more depressed. It was announced that Kansas City’s first baseman will be out for the remainder of the season yesterday, as the slugger must undergo shoulder surgery. Pasquantino was batting .247 with nine home runs and 26 RBIs in 61 games this season.

🏈 The Stefon Diggs drama came to an end fast than it started. Buffalo Bills star wideout Stefon Diggs did not report to mandatory minicamp on Tuesday, leading to loads of speculation about his status with the team. However, that speculation was shot down rather quickly when Diggs showed up on Wednesday in good spirits, allowing head coach Sean McDermott and Bills fans everywhere to breath a sign of relief. It does appear that there were some disputes happening behind the scenes, but McDermott told reporters that he believes everything is resolved. Diggs caught 108 passes for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022 and will look to improve on those numbers in 2023.

⛳️ First round of the U.S. Open will tee off today. The 123rd U.S. Open is set to take place this weekend at the Los Angeles County Country Club in Los Angeles, California. The course is 7,421 yards in total and plays to a par 70, making it a challenging course even for the world’s best ball strikers. Scottie Scheffler enters the tournament as the favorite (+700), but defending champion Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3300) will be looking to take down the world No.1 and defend his title this weekend.

🐻 Arizona lands top European basketball recruit. The Arizona Wildcats received huge news on Wednesday. Top European prospect Paulius Murauskas, who hails from Lithuania, officially signed his letter of intent to join the Wildcats for the upcoming season. Murauskas showed off his talent in the FIBA U18 European Championship last season, averaging 20.7 points per game. The signing marks the second big addition to Wildcats in recent weeks, with former North Carolina standout Caleb Love announcing his transfer to Arizona at the end of May.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Miguel Cabrera has the highest career batting average amongst active players. While that is stellar, it fails to crack the top-100 list in MLB history. The man at the top of that list hit .366 for his career. Name that player.

Question #2- The Duke Blue Devils are known to attract some of world’s top basketball talent. As a result, Duke has had the most players of any school selected with the No.1 overall pick in the NBA Draft. How many Blue Devils have been selected first overall?

Question #3- Cleveland Browns fans have been subject to some bad football over the years, seeing their team pile on losing season after losing season. Despite some recent success, the historically poor performances have given the Browns the fewest wins of any NFL franchise over the last 20 years. How many wins does Cleveland have in the last two decades?

Anyone know what has happened on June 15th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 15th…

1947- Lew Worsham defeats PGA legend Sam Snead by one stroke at the U.S. Open. It was the second time that Snead finished as the runner up at the U.S. Open, the only major he never won, and it would be Worsham’s only major victory of his career. Perhaps more interestingly, it took an 18-hole playoff to decide the winner, and the purse for the tournament was just $10,000, significantly less than year’s purse of $15,000,000.

1958- American Baseball Hall of Famer Wade Boggs is born in Omaha, Nebraska. Boggs played for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Tampa Bay Rays in his career, earning 12 All-Star selections, two Gold Gloves, and one World Series Championship (1996). He was most known for his consistency at the plate, batting .328 for his entire career with 3,010 hits.

2001- The Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA title, defeating the 76ers 4-1 in a best-of-seven series. Philadelphia won Game 1 of the series 107-101 in overtime, the same game where Allen Iverson’s infamous step-over on Tyronn Lue occurred, but would go on to lose the next four games by an average margin of 10 points. Shaquille O’Neal was named Finals MVP, averaging 33.0 points, 15.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 3.4 blocks per game in the series.

2019- The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans make a trade that would change the trajectory of both franchises. New Orleans sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and three first round picks. Davis and Ingram both remain with their respective teams, but Lonzo Ball is now a member of the Chicago Bulls and Josh Hart a member of the New York Knicks.

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1. Ty Cobb

2. 5

3. 106