In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 8-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 9-5

3-star Predictions: 0-0-1

💰 Kareem Hunt finishes visit with Saints, but receives larger offer from Colts. Former Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt took a trip down to New Orleans on Tuesday to visit the Saints following the suspension of Alvin Kamara. However, according to ESPN’s Dianna Russini, Hunt received a larger offer from the Indianapolis Colts prior to touching down in the bayou, meaning he will now visit Indy on Wednesday. Both New Orleans and Indianapolis are looking to add depth to the backfield as both of their star running backs may miss the start of the season, and Hunt is clearly an appealing option to both teams despite averaging a career-low 3.9 yards per carry last season.

👀 Trey Flowers makes his return to New England. Eight-year NFL veteran Trey Flowers is making his return to the New England Patriots, the team that he played his first four seasons with. Flowers was selected in the fourth round of the 2015 NFL Draft out of Arkansas by New England, and was a key member of the 2016 and 2018 Super Bowl winning teams. He would leave New England for the Detroit Lions in 2019 and found his way to Miami last season, and now the 29-year-old will look to have a bounce back season after playing just four games in 2022.

✈️ Jadeveon Clowney takes visit with Baltimore Ravens. Free agent pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney was in Baltimore, Maryland on Wednesday for a scheduled visit with the Ravens, per Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic. The former No.1 overall pick out of South Carolina has signed four consecutive one-year deals with the Seahawks, Titans, and Browns, but the Ravens are reportedly the first team to show interest in three-time Pro Bowl selection this offseason. Those contracts were all worth nearly $10 million, but Clowney is unlikely to see that number again after collecting just 14 sacks over the last four seasons.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data, our model has predictions for 12 of today’s matchups.

Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics

Model Predicts- Rangers ML, OVER 9, Rangers -1.5

The Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics will close out a three-game series on Wednesday afternoon in the Oakland Coliseum.

The Rangers have been on a roll since the calendar flipped to August, posting a perfect 8-0 record on their way to extending their AL West lead to three games. Meanwhile, Oakland has gone just 2-5 this month and is 0-2 in the series.

The gap in talent is rather wide in this matchup, a big reason why our model gives the Rangers a win probability north of 80%. Will we see Texas live up to those lofty expectations, or will Oakland defy the odds and avoid the sweep.

Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers finished the 2022 season with just 68 wins, putting the Rangers 38 games back of first place in the AL West. Well, Texas enters today’s matchup having matched that win total already, a huge turnaround for a team that has not finished above .500 since 2016.

What’s been the difference maker for Texas in 2023? Well, this team finally figured out how to get the bats going.

According to TeamRankings, the Rangers lead the majors in runs per game with 5.78, up from 4.36 a season ago. Texas’ OPS has also risen to .807 this season compared to .696 in 2022, further proving the large strides this team has made at the plate.

The bats have become even hotter in the month of August, an eight-day stretch where Texas has yet to lose a game. In those eight days we’ve seen the Rangers post the third-highest wRC+ (149), which is been made possible by a .318 BABIP and a blistering 10.7% walk rate. Texas ranks in the top-seven of the majors in all three categories.

New acquired pitcher Jordan Montgomery (7-9 record, 3.40 ERA) will try to hold things down on the mound as today’s starter in what is his second appearance in a Rangers uniform. Montgomery surrendered two earned runs and struck out six batters in his first start, but some metrics indicate regression is on its way. The left-hander’s xERA (4.26) comes in at nearly one run higher than his season ERA, and he ranks in the bottom 41% of the majors in strikeout rate, barrel rate, and xBA.

Oakland Athletics

There aren’t many good things to say about the Oakland Athletics. Oakland enters this afternoon’s matchup with a 32-82 record, already 36 games back of Texas in the division.

Consistency on the mound has been the biggest barrier for this Athletics team in 2023. Per FanGraphs, Oakland owns a 5.83 Team ERA and 5.18 xFIP, ranking the Athletics last in the majors in both categories by a significant margin.

Things likely won’t get much better with Freddy Tarnok (0-1 record, 6.75 ERA) set to take the mound as today’s starter. Tarnok has pitched in just 10.2 innings this season, but in that time his xERA has ballooned to 8.14. That is largely due to his inability to keep the ball off opposing hitter’s barrels (20.0% barrel rate), but also due to his 18.4% walk rate.

Tarnok’s 1.69 WHIP indicates opposing hitters are getting on base in bunches when he is on the bump. That is a major problem for Oakland today against the best offense in baseball.

What’s the Play?

We don’t believe it’s worth taking a swing at Texas on the money line or run line due to the high price, but we do agree with our model that there is some value on the over in this spot.

Texas is undoubtedly a top-two offense in the MLB this season, and we have seen that on full display in the season series with Oakland. The Rangers own a +39 run differential in nine games against Oakland this season, with the average combined run total in those matchups coming in at exactly nine runs.

Tarnok certainly opens the door for another offensive explosion, and Montgomery’s 5.00 ERA since the All-Star break shows that he can be hit around. So, we’ll take a shot at the over in this matchup at nine runs, which our model gives a 54.41% chance to hit.

3-star play: Over 9 (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Houston Astros- 65-49 overall this season, 34-24 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Chicago Cubs- 59-55 overall this season, 6-2 in the month of August

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 66-46 overall this season, 8-1 in last ten games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Colorado Rockies- Under is 65-48 this season, 36-22 as the away team

• Texas Rangers- Over is 56-50-8 this season, 15-13-4 against division opponents (Play AL West rival Oakland tonight)

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 66-40-6 this season, 37-18-3 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Texas Rangers- Run line is 68-46 overall this season, 43-32 when favored to win

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 64-50 overall this season, 391-9 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

💪 Miguel Cabrera continues his climb up the all-time hits leaderboard. Detroit Tigers legend and future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera made history last night with his two-hit performance. The 40-year-old’s first hit of the night moved him into a tie with Tony Gwynn on the all-time list, and a single in the bottom of the eighth inning moved him into the top-20 all-time. Cabrera is now tied with Robin Yount at the 20th spot, recording 3,142 hits in his career, and now sits 42 hits away from the top-15.

🤕 Shane McClanahan unlikely to return this season. Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan has been on the injured list with left forearm tightness since August 3rd, and it appears that he may be staying there for the remainder of the season. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, McClanahan is unlikely to return to the mound this season, and could even undergo surgery to fix the issue. The loss would be a huge blow to an already heavily-injured Rays rotation, as McClanahan owns a 11-2 record and 3.29 ERA in 2023.

❌ Raptors reject Hawks trade proposal for Pascal Siakam. The Atlanta Hawks looked to acquire Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam on Tuesday, but Atlanta’s offer didn’t appear to be enticing enough for the Raptors. Per Shams Charania, Atlanta offered De’Andre Hunter, AJ Griffin, and multiple draft picks in exchange for the two-time All-Star, who is entering the final season of a four-year, $136.9 million extension that he signed in October of 2019. Siakam is coming off as season in which he averaged 24.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game, while Hunter posted a career-high 15.4 points per game last season and Griffin 8.9 points per game in his lone NBA campaign.

💪 Golden State Warriors holding workouts for several NBA veterans. The Golden State Warriors appear to be in the market for more veteran experience, with the team announcing on Tuesday that it will hold workouts for several NBA veterans. Two of those workouts will be given to former Warriors Juan Toscano-Anderson and Kent Bazemore, and joining them on the list are Dion Waiters, Tony Snell, Harry Giles, and Trey Burke. Golden State has already made adding veterans a priority by acquiring Chris Paul from the Wizards, and the Warriors will look to take that experience back to the postseason to avenge their second round loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

🏒 Brandon Sutter joining Oilers for training camp. It was announced on Tuesday that veteran center Brandon Sutter will be joining the Edmonton Oilers for training camp, but he will be on the roster in the form of a professional tryout agreement, per Bob Stauffer. Sutter has not played the last two season because of long-term COVID symptoms, a virus he tested positive for during the 2021 season. He has played for the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, and Pittsburgh Penguins in his career, tallying 152 goals and 137 assists across 770 contests.

Guess that player!

We’ll list the year, round, pick, and team that made the selection of some NBA and NFL players, and you have to guess who the player is.

Player 1- 1999 / Round 1 / Pick 10 / Atlanta Hawks

Player 2- 2004 / Round 1 / Pick 18 / New Orleans Hornets

Player 3- 2016 / Round 2 / Pick 36 / Milwaukee Bucks

Player 1- 1991 / Round 2 / Pick 33 / Atlanta Falcons

Player 2- 2006 / Round 1 / Pick 28 / Jacksonville Jaguars

Player 3- 2017 / Round 3 / Pick 69 / Los Angeles Rams

Anyone know what has happened on August 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On August 9th…

1971- MLB legend Satchel Paige is inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame. Paige began his professional baseball career in 1926 as a member of the Chattanooga Black Lookouts of the Negro Leagues, and it would take until 1948 for Paige to enter the MLB, playing his first game with the Cleveland Indians at the age of 42. He would play his final MLB game in 1965 at the age of 59 for the Kansas City Athletics, ending a tremendous career as the oldest player to ever participate in an MLB game.

1988- The Edmonton Oilers trade Wayne Gretzky to the Los Angeles Kings for Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas, three first round draft picks, and $15 million cash. Unsurprisingly, Gretzky made an immediate impact in Los Angeles, collecting 54 goals, 114 assists, and the Hart Trophy in his first season. He would play for the Kings until the 1996 season, the same year he was traded to the St. Louis Blues following the financial collapse of the Kings’ franchise.

2020- American golfer Collin Morikawa wins his first major title at the PGA Championship, defeating Englishman Paul Casey by two strokes. Morikawa didn’t enter the top-10 until he shot a 5-under 65 round on Saturday, following that up with a stellar 6-under par round on Sunday to seal the deal. His score of 129 in the final two rounds of play set a new PGA Championship record, and Morikawa became the ninth player in PGA Tour history to win the event on his first attempt.

NBA Answers

1. Jason Terry

2. J.R. Smith

3. Malcolm Brogdon

NFL Answers

1. Brett Favre

2. Marcedes Lewis

3. Cooper Kupp