In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA and MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 1-0

Over/Under Predictions: 0-1

Spread Predictions: 0-1

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 5-6

Over/Under Predictions: 5-6

Run Line Predictions: 6-5

3-star Predictions: 0-0

🏔 Nuggets bounce back in Game 4, go up 2-1 in series. The Denver Nuggets collapsed in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, but avenged that loss with a 15-point victory in Miami on Wednesday night. Nikola Jokic put up another incredible stat line, ending the night with 32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. Jamal Murray did his fair share of scoring as well, pouring in a game-high 34 points on 54.5% shooting from the floor. Denver is now up 2-1 in the series, with Game 4 set to take place on Friday night.

👋 Phoenix set to waive Chris Paul. It appears that Chris Paul’s time as a member of the Phoenix Suns is coming to an end, as Chris Haynes reports that Phoenix has informed the point guard that they plan to waive him before the offseason officially begins. Paul has played the last three seasons with the Suns, earning two All-Star Game appearances in that time. However, Paul is starting to show signs of decline at 38 years of age, averaging a career-low 13.9 points per game in 2022-23 regular season before getting injured in the playoffs. Waiving Paul makes a lot of sense, but the Suns will still be strapped for cash since Devin Booker and Kevin Durant’s contracts will definitely be staying on the books.

🤷‍♂️ James Harden has no clue what team to sign with. James Harden was quick to name himself a free-agent following Philadelphia’s second round exit this postseason, but according to Shams Charania the 33-year-old is “torn” between signing with the 76ers or going back to Houston. Harden has played for the 76ers the last two seasons, coming to Philly from Brooklyn via a trade involving Ben Simmons, and played nine seasons with the Rockets earlier in his career. Harden currently has a $35.6 million player option with Philadelphia, but is expected to decline it in hopes of receiving a long-term contract. Free agency is set to begin on June 30th, so the clock is ticking for the 33-year-old to decide his future

There is one NHL game scheduled to take place with evening, with that matchup being Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Las Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers. Vegas owns a 2-0 series lead after dominating Games 1 and 2 at home, and our model likes the Golden Knights to go up 3-0 in the series tonight.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends💰

• Vegas Golden Knights- 14-5 overall in postseason, 6-2 as the away team

• Florida Panthers- 12-6 overall in postseason, 4-3 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 12-7 overall in postseason, 2-0 in Stanley Cup Finals with average total of 8.00

• Florida Panthers- Over is 8-10 overall in postseason

Puck Line Trends➕➖

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 12-7 overall in postseason

• Florida Panthers- Puck line is 12-6 overall in postseason

Vegas Golden Knights @ Florida Panthers

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Laurent Brossoit (OUT), William Karlsson (Day-to-Day)

• Florida Panthers

  • Eetu Luostarinen (OUT)

⁉️ Could the Jets trade Dubois? The Winnipeg Jets find themselves in a tough spot, as Pierre-Luc Dubois and his agent, Pat Brisson, have told the franchise that Dubois would like to seek a trade to another team. Dubois is not a free-agent until 2024, but had reportedly told the Jets he would test the free-agency market when the time arose. Dubois is coming off a great season, setting career highs in assists (36) and points (63) in 73 games.

👑 Los Angeles re-signs Vladislav Gavrikov. The Los Angeles Kings and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov have reportedly agreed to a two-year extension with an average annual value of $5.875 million. Per TSN’s Chris Johnson, $10.2 million will be paid in signing bonuses, and Gavrikov’s base salary will be $775,000 each season. Gavrikov was acquired form the Columbus Blue Jackets at last season’s trade deadline, tallying three goals and six assists in 20 regular season games with the Kings.

There are 12 games scheduled for Thursday afternoon and evening in the MLB, with one doubleheader in the mix due to poor air quality in New York over the last several days. However, due to some gaps in the early season data, our model has predictions for eight of today’s 12 matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Brewers +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Milwaukee Brewers will finish up a three-game series on Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Brewers have dominated the series up to this point, winning the first two games and posting a +9 run differential across those two matchups. However, Baltimore is one of the best road teams in the majors this season, so you can’t count out the Orioles to avoid the sweep.

Our model has identified a 3-star play in this matchup, giving the Orioles a much better chance to win compared to what can be sen across many sportsbooks. Can the O’s back that prediction up and get back in the win column, or will Milwaukee get the sweep and its 35th win of the season?

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles shocked the baseball world in 2022 when the team won 83 games, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2016. It was so surprising that Orioles CEO and chairman John Angelos said that Baltimore “overachieved and over-performed”, a reason why he was not ready to invest more money into the team just yet.

However, Baltimore has proven that last season wasn’t a fluke, entering today’s matchup with a 37-24 record and in second place in the loaded AL East. Surprisingly though, Baltimore has been rather average in many statistical categories this season.

For example, Baltimore owns a .250 xBA and .422 xSLG. For comparison, the MLB average in those categories is .248 and .414, respectively, per Baseball Savant. Baltimore has also posted a 40.4% Hard Hit rate and 8.4% Barrel rate, as opposed to the league averages of 39.7% and 8.2%.

The Orioles have been pretty average on the mound as well this season, entering today ranked 17th in Team ERA (4.26), according to TeamRankings. However, Baltimore’s bullpen owns a 3.38 ERA, the fifth best in the majors, and a 3.76 xFIP, showing that Baltimore has plenty of strength on the mound in the back half of matchups.

Kyle Bradish (2-2 record, 4.13 ERA) will get the start today and is in charge of putting that bullpen in a good position. Bradish’s 4.13 ERA and 4.86 xERA are mildly concerning, but in the month of May his ERA fell to 2.78. He also owns a 7.3% walk rate this season, showing that he has control on the mound and doesn’t surrender many bases to walks.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in first place in the NL Central division, and a sweep today would likely extend their lead. However, the Brewers will have to rely on Colin Rea (3-3 record, 4.94 ERA) to get them to the finish line, which has been a tough bet to place this season.

Rea has had a hard time on the mound in about every way possible. He is oftentimes pitching to contact, which has resulted in a very low strikeout rate (20.0%), per Baseball Savant, and has put Rea in the bottom 29% of the MLB in Whiff rate.

Pitching to contact isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it usually leads to a lot of hard contact. That is the case in 2023 with Rea, who has posted a 43.8% Hard Hit rate and 90.2 mph Average Exit Velocity Allowed. For comparison, the MLB average in both categories is 36.0% and 88.4 mph, showing that Rea is lagging behind his peers.

We saw what pitching to contact did to Rea in May, a month where he posted a 5.12 ERA. The struggles appear to have carried over into June, as he surrendered three runs, six hits, and three walks in 5.0 inning against Cincinnati on Saturday.

Milwaukee has a shaky bullpen behind Rea too, a group that owns a 4.07 ERA and 4.45 xFIP this season, per Fangraphs.

What’s the Play?

Neither starting pitcher in today’s matchup is all that enticing, but we agree with our model that Baltimore has the edge here.

In general Rea struggles, but lefties are hitting the ball off him very well this season. According to Rotowire, Rea owns a 6.63 ERA against southpaws, compared to 3.81 against righties. That could pose a problem today against Baltimore, a team that had six left-handed hitters in yesterday’s lineup.

Bradish is the slightly better starting pitcher today, and Baltimore has the better supporting cast in the bullpen. Our model thinks the odds for this game should be closer to -130, so we’ll back the Orioles at -115 today and hope they avoid the sweep.

3-star play: Orioles ML (-115)

Money Line Trends💰

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 37-25 overall this season, 17-11 as the away team

• Baltimore Orioles- 37-24 overall this season, 20-12 as the away team

• Los Angeles Angels- 33-30 overall this season, 17-13 as the home team

Over/Under Trends⬆️⬇️

• Los Angeles Dodgers- Over is 36-24-2 this season, best win percentage in the MLB

• Cincinnati Reds- Over is 35-27 overall this season, 19-15 as the home team

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 31-29-3 this season, 17-9-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Arizona Diamondbacks- Run line is 37-25 overall this season 19-9 as the away team, 7-5 as a road favorite

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com.

🔥 Wildfires postpone games in the Northeast. The air quality in many cities in the Northeastern United States is being affected as wildfires rage across Canada. As a result, Wednesday’s White Sox/Yankees and Tigers/Phillies matchups were forced to be postponed, with the make-up games set to take place tomorrow. In just a matter of hours the skies went from being clear to shades of red and orange in both cities, forcing locals to remain indoors like it was March 2020 all over again.

🤕 Pete Alonso picks up wrist contusion against Atlanta. New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso was hit by a pitch thrown by Charlie Morton on Wednesday, resulting in Alonso to be removed from the game. X-rays came back negative, but he was diagnosed with a wrist contusion and is expected to be day-to-day moving forward. Alonso currently leads the MLB in home runs with 22, so any extended absence would be a big blow to a Mets team that is 30-32 and in third in the NL East.

💥 Welcome to the big leagues, Elly De La Cruz. The Cincinnati Reds recalled Elly De La Cruz from Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday, and he is already making an impact for the Reds. He began his MLB career with a double and two walks on Tuesday night, and followed that performance with his first career home run in a 8-6 comeback win over the Dodgers on Wednesday. According to MLB.com, De La Cruz was the MLB’s fourth ranked prospect, and so far he looks the part.

👀 DeAndre Hopkins to visit with Titans. Former Arizona Cardinals wide receiver and current free-agent Arizona Cardinals will reportedly meet with the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, per Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network. The Titans will be the first team that Hopkins speaks to following his release from Arizona after the Cardinals failed to find a trade partner for the 31-year-old. Tennessee wasn’t a team that was linked to Hopkins early on, but playing for the Titans means Hopkins and Mike Vrabel will reunite after both were members of the Houston Texans from 2014-2016.

🎮 Josh Allen to be on the cover of Madden. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was selected by EA Sports to be the cover athlete of Madden 24 on Wednesday. It will be Allen’s first appearance on the cover, and he will be the first Bills player to be the face of the video game. Madden 24 is set to be released on August 18th, and hopefully the infamous “Madden Curse” doesn’t sneak up on Allen and the Bills in 2023.

🏟 Jaguars unveil renderings for new stadium. The Jacksonville Jaguars released renderings of what the franchise calls its “Stadium of the Future” on Wednesday. The stadium will reportedly hold 62,000 people, but it can expand to 71,500 for larger events like a concert or a College Football Playoff game, which the city hopes to host in the coming years. Jacksonville is the only NFL team that has not had a new stadium built or had renovations done to its current stadium since entering the league in 1995, and the new project could cost upwards of $2.1 billion.

⚽️ Lionel Messi is coming to the MLS. Tons of team from around the world have interest in bringing Lionel Messi to their franchise, but the soccer star has announced that he intends to play for the Inter Miami in the MLS. Miami currently sits in last place in the Eastern Conference, but the team will certainly get a boost with Messi on the roster.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Tom Brady won six Super Bowls in his time with the New England Patriots, winning his first in 2002 and his last in 2019 before going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The six Super Bowls put New England at the top of the NFL for most Super Bowl wins by a franchise, but the Patriots are tied with another team. What franchise has also won six Super Bowls?

Question #2- Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood hold the MLB record for the most strikeouts in a nine-inning game, a number that will blow you away. How many batters did each pitcher strikeout when he set/tied the record?

Question #3- As we saw this postseason, the Boston Celtics love to flirt with elimination in the playoffs. That is not a new trend though, as the Celtics have played in 37 Game 7s in franchise history, 13 more than any other team. How many of those Game 7s has Boston won?

Question #4- Baker Mayfield was the first walk-on to ever win the Heisman Trophy, winning college football’s most prestigious in 2017 while attending the University of Oklahoma. Mayfield did not start his collegiate career with the Sooners though, instead attending the same school as one of the best quarterbacks currently in the NFL. What university did Mayfield attend before Oklahoma?

Anyone know what has happened on June 8th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 8th…

1950- The Boston Red Sox CRUSH the St. Louis Browns in Fenway Park, winning 29-4. The bludgeoning began with eight runs in the second inning, followed by 14 additional runs from innings three to six and seven runs in innings seven through eight. Boston’s 29 runs remain the MLB record for runs scored in a game by a single team, and the Sox simultaneously set the record for mosts total bases in one game with 60.

1965- The inaugural MLB Draft is held New York City, with the Kansas City Athletics selecting Rick Monday No.1 overall. Monday would go on to have a 19-year career in the majors and, playing for three teams, the Athletics, Cubs, and Dodgers, earning two All-Star appearances and winning a World Series in 1981. Other notable players selected were Johnny Bench and Nolan Ryan, just two of the additional 812 players selected after Monday.

1982- The Los Angeles Lakers win the 36th NBA Finals, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 4-2 in a best-of-seven series. Led by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Los Angeles finished the regular season with 57 wins, nine more than the next closest team, which gave LA the No.1 seed in the West. Philadelphia was the No.3 seed in the East that year, and would avenge its Finals loss in 1983 by sweeping the same Lakers team that beat them the year before.

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1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. 20

3. 27

4. Texas Tech University