In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions and making it a 3-star play. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 7-8

Run Line Predictions: 4-11

3-star Predictions: 0-1

👀 Kyle Kuzma set to test free agency. The Washington Wizards traded Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns earlier this week for pennies on the dollar, and now one of its best sources of offense remaining on the roster will hit free agency. Per Adrian Wojnarowski, Kyle Kuzma has turned down his $13 million player option for the 2023-24 season, but the 27-year-old can still return to the Wizards on a new deal. Kuzma is coming off a career year in what was his second season with Washington, tallying 21.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game in 64 appearances.

🦖 Gary Trent Jr. picks up player option, working with Toronto on extension. Toronto Raptors shooting guard Gary Trent Jr. will reportedly opt into his $18.5 million player option for the 2023-24 season, per Chris Haynes. It is also being reported that both Trent Jr. and Toronto would like the 24-year-old to sign a long-term extension, which is great news for a Raptors team that recently had Fred VanVleet decline his player option, instead opting for free agency. Trent Jr. came to Toronto during the 2021 season from Portland in a trade for Norman Powell, most recently averaging 17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.6 steals last season while shooting 36.9% from three.

⚾️ Victor Wembanyama throws out the first pitch at the Yankees game. The likely first overall pick of the 2023 NBA Draft, Victor Wembanyama, could be seen on the mound of last night’s Mariners-Yankees game throwing out the first pitch. However, it appears that the 7’2” basketball star from France won’t have a career cut out for him in the MLB if basketball fails. Wembanyama threw the first pitch just a bit outside, but we have a feeling that he won’t ever have to worry about a baseball career anyway.

🇨🇦 Montreal re-signs Sean Monahan to one-year deal. The Montreal Canadiens and Sean Monahan have reportedly come to terms on a one-year extension worth $1.985 million, per the Canadiens twitter account. Monahan will also receive a $15,000 dollar bonus if he plays in at least 26 games this season, a clause that was likely added due to Monahan making just 25 appearances last season after suffering a season-ending lower-body injury in December. The 28-year-old still made an impact in his limited ice time though, scoring six goals and collecting 11 assists while winning 55.1% of his faceoffs.

🔄 Philadelphia puts everyone up for sale except one player. The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off an abysmal 2022-23 season, resulting in tons of movement in the front office. Former Flyers standout moved into the general manager position as a result of the offseason cuts, and he has already told the rest of the league that everyone on his team is available, except for 20-year-old Cutter Gauthier. Philadelphia selected Gauthier with the fifth overall pick in last year’s NHL Draft, but decided to play hockey at the NCAA level at Boston College. In his freshman season Gauthier led the Eagles with 16 goals and 37 points in 32 games, and he reportedly plans to stay at the college level next season.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place today, with the first beginning at 12:10 PM Eastern. However, due to some gaps in the season data and lines not being available at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 10 of today’s matchups.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 8.5, Pirates +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh will play the final game of a three-game series on Wednesday afternoon in Pittsburgh.

Chicago has dominated the series up to this point, shutting out Pittsburgh in Games 1 and 2. The Cubs are now a perfect 5-0 this season against the Pirates and 8-2 across the last ten games.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters today riding an eight-game losing streak and having lost 11 of the last 13 games.

Several metrics are pointing towards Chicago picking up another sweep of the Pirates, and our model thinks the Cubs should be heavier favorites than what is currently available across many books. Will we see the Cubs continue their dominance over their NL Central rival, or will the Pirates snap out of the slump?

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs may still be three games below .500 and 3.5 games back of first place in the NL Central, but it is hard to ignore what the Cubs have done over the last week and a half.

Chicago is 9-2 overall dating back to June 9th, with their only losses coming at the hands of two solid teams in the San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles. The Cubs are also a perfect 5-0 against the Pirates in that stretch, posting a +29 run differential against Pittsburgh in those five games.

Small improvements at the plate have played a role in Chicago’s recent success. Per Fangraphs, the Cubs owns a 106 wRC+ and a .307 BABIP in the last 11 games, up from Chicago’s season numbers of .305 and 100, respectively. The Cubs have also lowered their strikeout rate by nearly 3.0% in that 11 game span.

However, it appears that the biggest factor in Chicago’s recent success has been its pitching, seeing its Team ERA drop to 3.31 from 4.02. Kyle Hendricks (2-2 record, 2.86 ERA) will get the start this afternoon, and he is certainly someone who can keep that downward trend going.

Hendricks is often pitching to contact, as evidenced by his 14.0% strikeout rate and ranking in the bottom 2% of the majors in Whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. However, opposing hitters have not done much damage against Hendricks when contact is made. He owns an Average Exit Velocity Allowed of 86.9 mph and a 35.2% Hard hit rate, both of which rank in the top 25% of the majors in 2023.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Talk about a fall from grace. The Pittsburgh Pirates began the 2023 season a scorching 20-9, owning the MLB’s second-best record at one point. However, since then the Pirates have gone 14-29 in what has been an abysmal stretch of baseball.

The last eight games, all of which were losses, have been particularly bad for Pittsburgh at the plate. The losing streak began with a 13-3 loss to the Chicago Cubs, the start of a stretch where the Pirates would average just 2.13 runs per game and post a -38 run differential.

Things become even worse once you start to dig deeper. Pittsburgh owns a wRC+ of 58 in the last eight games, ranking the Pirates last in the MLB. Pittsburgh’s BABIP in that same stretch sits at .228, also last in the majors and down from the Pirates’ season .294 BABIP.

This team can’t get anything going at the plate, and to make matters worse the pitching staff has posted a 6.82 ERA and and 4.60 xFIP in the last eight games. Rich Hill (6-6 record, 4.31 ERA) will be in charge of trying to provide some stability on the rubber today, but that will likely be a tall task for the 43-year-old.

It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that a 43-year-old has lost a step on the mound, especially when talking about his velocity. Hill’s 4-seam fastball is crossing the plate at just 88.0 mph, ranking in the bottom 1% of the majors, per Baseball Savant. That pitch oftentimes gets crushed, posting a 15.9% Barrel rate from opposing hitters. Hill’s other two most commonly thrown pitches, a curveball and cutter, also own an xBA above .287, showing that opposing hitters aren’t having much trouble reading Hill.

What’s the Play?

Neither one of today’s starting pitchers is going to overwhelm opposing hitters. However, Hendricks is much better at limiting the amount of damage that is done against him, and we think that will tip the scales in Chicago’s favor this afternoon.

As previously discussed, Hendricks does a tremendous job at limiting the amount of hard contact against him, and he keep balls on the ground while he is on the mound (44.0% GB%). On the other hand, Hill ranks in the bottom 46% of the majors in Hard Hit rate and bottom 17% in xBA, partially resulting from posting a 33.2% ground ball rate.

Additionally, Chicago has had significantly more success against left-handed pitchers this season, which Rich Hill is. Per ESPN, the Cubs are batting .264 with a .778 OPS against southpaws, likely putting Hill in a tough spot this afternoon.

The dominance likely won’t continue forever, but our model thinks the Cubs should be heavier favorites in this one, giving them odds of -123. So, we’ll take the Cubs on the money line at -115.

3-star play: Cubs ML (-115)

Money Line Trends💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 51-25 overall this season, 31-8 as the home team

• Chicago Cubs- 35-38 overall this season, 9-2 in last 11 games

• Arizona Diamondbacks- 44-30 overall this season, 21-12 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Tampa Bay Rays- Over is 41-31-4 this season, 25-13-1 as the home team, and 16-9-1 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Baltimore this afternoon)

• Kansas City Royals- Under is 40-31-2 this season, 22-12-1 as the away team

Run Line Trends➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 45-27 overall this season, 19-5 as road underdog

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 41-31 overall this season

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🏟 Cardinals and Giants set to play at Rickwood field next season. The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will play one regular season game at Rickwood Field in Alabama next season. Rickwood Field, the former home of the Birmingham Black Barons, is the oldest professional ballpark in the United States. The game will reportedly take place in June, and it will include tributes to the Negro Leagues and MLB legend Willie Mays.

🤬 Rangers lose following controversial call at the plate. Last night’s 3-star play was the Texas Rangers money line against the Chicago White Sox, a prediction that became a loser in devastating fashion. Texas entered the bottom of eighth inning up 6-4, but Chicago would eventually tie the game at six runs apiece after Elvis Andrus was tagged out at home attempting to take the lead. However, the Rangers catcher was called for blocking the plate, meaning the Andrus’ run counted, allowing Chicago to win 7-6. We personally don’t like the call, but we’ll let you be the judge.

🔥 No one can stop the Cincinnati Reds. Two weeks ago the Cincinnati Reds looked poised for another disappointing season, but a recent turnaround has Cincinnati in first place in the NL Central. The Reds won their tenth straight game last night following a 8-6 victory over the Colorado Rockies, which sits as the longest active win streak in the majors. Rookie Elly De La Cruz smashed a home run into the left field seats, and TJ Friedl went deep to center in the second inning to blow things open. Cincinnati will face Colorado for the last time in the series this afternoon, looking for its third sweep in a row.

✍️ Rams bring back Sony Michel on one-year deal. The Los Angeles Rams and running back Sony Michel have reportedly agreed on a new one-year deal that will keep Michel with the Rams through the 2023-24 season, per the LA Rams twitter account. Michel most recently played for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2022, but was acquired by the Rams prior to the 2021 season, tallying 845 yards in 17 games during LA’s Super Bowl run. Michel will now compete for touches with Cam Akers, Kyren Williams, and Zach Evans in what has suddenly become a competitive backfield.

❌ Jack Jones pleads not guilty to nine gun charges. New England Patriots cornerback Jack Jones was arrested last Friday after airport security found two firearms in a suitcase belonging to Jones. He has since been released on $30,000 bail, pending a probably cause hearing that is scheduled for August 18th. New England drafted Jones in the fourth round of the 2022 NFL Draft despite some off-the-field issues throughout his college career, and in his first season he posted 30 tackles and two interceptions in 13 games.

⚽️ Lionel Messi, Inter Miami targeting July 21st debut. Lionel Messi made headlines a few weeks back after announcing that he would be coming to the MLS to play for Inter Miami. The 2022 World Cup Champion has yet to play for the team, but Inter Miami has announced that Messi will likely make his debut on July 21st in a match against Cruz Azul in the regional Leagues Cup competition. No deal has been officially announced, but Messi will reportedly make up to $60 million per year and receive equity in the team. It is also being reported that Inter Miami would like to make 3-5 additional signings along with Messi, giving the last-place team in the Eastern Conference a huge boost.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The MVP is an award given to the player deemed to be the Most Valuable Player on his/her team, and it is given out across every major men’s and women’s sport in the United States. Oftentimes there isn’t a consensus regarding who the winner should be, except for one time in the NBA when an unanimous MVP was named for the first time in league history. Who was the first unanimous MVP the NBA has ever had?

Question #2- The 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars were a dominant force in the NFL, posting a 15-3 record across the regular season in playoffs. Shockingly though, all three of Jacksonville’s losses that season came at the ends of the same team. Which NFL team handed the Jaguars all three of their losses in 1999?

Question #3- Five NHL players recorded at least 50 goals in the 2022-23 season. Scoring 50 goals is far more common in today’s game than it was back in the day, as evidenced by the first 50-goal scroed not coming until the 1944-45 season. Who was that player?

Anyone know what has happened on June 21st throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 21st…

1939- New York Yankees legend Lou Gehrig officially retires from Major League Baseball after 17 seasons. Gehrig’s retirement came after being diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS. Gehrig would go on to live with ALS for the next few years, but ultimately passed away form the disease on June 2, 1941.

1965- Gary Player defeats Kel Nagle by three strokes to win the U.S. Open title, the only U.S. Open victory of his career. Player and Nagle were both tied at 2-over par after 72 holes, leading to an additional 18 holes to be played in a playoff where Player shot 1-over par compared to Nagle’s 4-over par round. The victory made Player the first foreign-born winner of the U.S. Open since 1927, and it simultaneously gave him his fourth major title and the career grand slam at the age of 29.

2022- Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani tallies career-high 8 RBIs in a 12-11 loss to the Kansas City Royals. Ohtani became the eighth player in Angels history to have an 8 RBI game, but it was the first time in MLB history that a player had at least 8 RBIs and never had his team lead the game. The two-way star would go down in history the following night as well, striking out 13 batters on his way to becoming the first player in MLB history to record at least 10 strikeouts following an 8 RBI game.

Our referral program is currently being migrated over from our old provider. You will eventually see your referral count here along with your unique code.

1. Stephen Curry

2. Tennessee Titans

3. Maurice Richard