In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Yesterday was an up and down day for our models. 3-star plays were 0-2 as the White Sox defeated the Twins, the second time in three days we were on the wrong side of a walk off , and the Knicks won by six points when the model projected New York to cover the 6.5-point spread.

Money Line Predictions: 1-1

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Spread Predictions: 0-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

Money Line Predictions: 0-2

Over/Under Predictions: 2-0

Puck Line Predictions: 2-0

3-star Predictions: 0-0

Money Line Predictions: 3-5

Over/Under Predictions: 3-5

Run Line Predictions: 6-2

3-star Predictions: 0-1

There is only one NBA game scheduled for this evening, and that is going to remain the case for quite some time as the NBA tries to drag out the playoffs for as long as possible. However, if it is anything like Game 1 of the 76ers/Celtics series then it should be a good one.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

Model Predicts- Celtics ML, OVER 217, 76ers +8.5

The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics will square off in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Wednesday night.

Philadelphia stunned Boston in Game 1, winning 119-115 behind a vintage James Harden performance. What made that win even more impressive was Philadelphia being without Joel Embiid, who was just recently announced as the league MVP.

Despite the loss, Boston still lit Philadelphia up on the offensive end of the floor. However, the Celtics may have not taken Philly seriously without its star player on the floor, allowing the 76ers to hang around and capitalize on some late-game errors. Will we see Boston make some changes the second time around, or can the 76ers head back home up 2-0 in the series?

Philadelphia 76ers

Simply put, the Philadelphia 76ers put on a show that no one expected in Game 1. Without Embiid on the floor many considered Philly’s chances of winning to be slim to none, but the underdogs pulled through and find themselves up 1-0 in the series.

James Harden did the heavy lifting, scoring a playoff career-high 45 points on 56.7% shooting overall and 50% from three. Prior to that outburst Harden had only surpassed the 20 point mark twice this postseason, so it appears that the former MVP has knocked off the rust.

Harden wasn’t the only 76er to find the bottom of the basket though. Tyrese Maxey contributed 26 points of his own, and Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton had 18 and 17 points, respectively.

Once again, the key for Philly was its shooting from behind the arc, an area of the floor that the 76ers shot 45% from in Game 1. This team ranked first in the NBA in three-point percentage during the regular season, and they remain at the top of the list in the playoffs at 41.5%.

While Embiid did miss Game 1 and was considered doubtful for Game 2, it was recently announced that he will play tonight. That gives Philadelphia a much needed boost defensively, an area where they struggled in Game 1.

Boston Celtics

Boston may have come up short in Game 1, but the performance was by no means a bad one.

The Celtics came out of the gates red hot, shooting an unbelievable 85% from the floor in the first quarter. That percentage slowly came back down to earth as the game progressed, which is to be expected, but Boston still shot a rather efficient 59% for the game.

The main reason for such high shooting efficiency is because the Celtics abused Philly in the paint, scoring 66 points from that area of the floor in Game 1. Per TeamRankings Boston ranked 22nd in paint points per game in the regular season with 47.2, so the sudden spike shows how wide open the middle was without Embiid.

Additionally, Boston out-rebounded Philadelphia 38-28 on Monday night, proving once again it had a major advantage inside.

All Boston really has to do is defend the three point line better, but that is no easy task against this sharp shooting 76ers squad.

What’s the Play?

Philadelphia may have gotten lucky escaping Game 1 with a win, but covering the double-digit spread was certainly not a fluke. Philadelphia averaged 118.8 points per game in 16 regular season games without Embiid in the lineup, showing the offense was just fine without him.

Now that Embiid is expected to be back in the mix, we agree with out model that Philly is in position to cover the spread again.

Boston shot the ball at an unrealistic clip for much of Game 1, going into halftime shooting 73% from the floor. That was a result of the aforementioned 66 points in the paint, but that number is certainly going to come down with Embiid clogging up the middle. To make matters worse, Boston now ranks 12th out of 16 teams in Defensive Rating this postseason, a bad sign for a team that is due for offensive regression in Game 2.

Some may think Philly is due for offensive regression as well, but its shooting splits of 51% overall and 45% from three in Game 1 aren’t exactly other worldly. They’ve reached those numbers plenty of times this season.

This 76ers team is talented and has a ton of three-point shooting depth to go along with the NBA’s leading scorer being available. That should allow Philly to keep things close, even if the 76ers are on the losing end this time.

3-star play: 76ers +8.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- 5-0 overall in postseason, 10-11 in all games as away underdog

• Boston Celtics- 4-3 overall in postseason, 2-2 as home team

Over/Under Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- Over is 2-3 in postseason, 1-1 as away team

• Boston Celtics- Over is 5-2 in postseason, 2-2 as home team

Spread Trends

• Philadelphia 76ers- 4-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in postseason

• Boston Celtics- 4-3 ATS in postseason, 2-2 as home team

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

• Philadelphia 76ers

  • Joel Embiid (Game Time Decison) - On track to play, per Shams Charania

• Boston Celtics

  • Danilo Gallinari (OUT), Marcus Smart (Game Time Decision)

🏆 Joel Embiid wins his first MVP. Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid finally gets his long-awaited MVP award, defeating Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. Embiid received 73 first place votes, well ahead of Jokic’s 15 and Antetokounmpo’s 12, and Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished fourth and fifth in voting. Like he always does, Embiid went straight to social media to celebrate.

🤕 Chris Paul expected to miss time with a groin injury. Phoenix Suns point guard Chris Paul will miss at least one week after injuring his groin in Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinals against Denver. Phoenix expects to be without its main ball handler until at least Game 6, if it even happens. Paul averaged 12.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists in seven postseason games.

🏀 Knicks take care of business at home, even the series against Miami. The New York Knicks faced off against the Miami Heat last night in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, a game New York won 111-105. Miami was without Jimmy Butler for that matchup, but held the lead for a majority of the game until New York ended the game on a 24-12 run. Game 3 will take place in Miami on Saturday.

Today we only have two NHL games scheduled to take place. The New Jersey Devils will be in Raleigh, North Carolina to take on the Hurricanes, and the Oilers will visit Las Vegas to kick off Round 2 against the Golden Knights.

There are no 3-star plays in the NHL today.

Money Line Trends

• New Jersey Devils- 4-3 overall in postseason, 2-1 as away team

• Carolina Hurricanes- 4-2 overall in postseason, 2-1 as home team

• Edmonton Oilers- 4-2 overall in postseason, 3-0 in last three games and 2-1 as away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- 4-1 in postseason, winners of four straight games

Over/Under Trends

• New Jersey Devils- Under is 4-3 in postseason, 2-1 as away team with average total of 4.67

• Carolina Hurricanes- Under is 3-3 in postseason, 2-1 as home team with average total of 5.00

• Edmonton Oilers- Over is 4-2 in postseason, 2-1 as away team with average total of 7.67

• Vegas Golden Knights- Over is 4-1 in postseason, 2-1 as home team with average total of 6.00

Puck Line Trends

• New Jersey Devils- Puck line is 4-3 in postseason, 2-1 as away team

• Carolina Hurricanes- Puck line is 2-4 in postseason, 0-3 as home team

• Edmonton Oilers- Puck line is 2-4 in postseason, 0-3 as away team

• Vegas Golden Knights- Puck line is 4-1 in postseason, 2-1 as home team

New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes

• New Jersey Devils

  • Jonathan Bernier (OUT)

• Carolina Hurricanes

  • Teuvo Teravainen (OUT), Andrei Svechnikov (OUT), Jack Drury (Day-to-Day)

Edmonton Oilers @ Vegas Golden Knights

• Edmonton Oilers

  • Mattias Janmark (OUT)

• Vegas Golden Knights

  • Brayden McNabb (Day-to-Day)

🪄 Florida’s magical run continues. After defeating the Boston Bruins in seven games in Round 1, the Florida Panthers headed to Toronto and walked away from Game 1 victorious. Nick Cousins got the scoring going with his first period goal, which was followed by three more Panthers' goals on their way to a 4-2 victory. Game 2 is set to take place on Thursday.

🏒 Kraken score three goals in 52 seconds, win Game 1 against Dallas. The Seattle Kraken jumped out to an early 4-2 lead in the first period last night against the Dallas Stars. Three of those four goals came in a span of just 52 seconds, which was great for Seattle because it would not score again until the second overtime period. Stars center Joe Pavelski scored all four goals for Dallas in the 5-4 loss.

There are 16 MLB games scheduled to take place today, with the first beginning at 1:40 Eastern Time. However, due to some gaps in early season data, our model has predictions for ten of today’s matchups.

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Orioles -1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals will continue their three-game series on Wednesday.

Baltimore jumped out to an early 1-0 series lead after defeating Kansas City 11-7 last night. The Orioles had 15 total hits in the game, seven of which came from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle.

Last night was yet another loss for the Royals, something this team is becoming all to0 familiar with. Kansas City enters today with a 7-23 record, having lost seven of its last nine games.

Baltimore has been one of the larger surprises this season, and it is clear that the Orioles have the upper hand in today’s matchup. Will the Orioles use that to their advantage and set up the sweep opportunity for Thursday, or will the Royals get back in the win column?

Baltimore Orioles

Kyle Gibson is set to get the start on the mound for Baltimore. His 4-0 record and 3.93 ERA look solid on paper, but Gibson has had his fair share of mishaps on the mound this season.

Per Baseball Savant Gibson owns an xERA of 4.82, nearly one full run above is actual ERA mentioned above. That is largely due to the fact that Gibson is struggling with his velocity, particularly with his fastball. His 4-seamer is coming in at an average of 91 mph, helping explain why Gibson ranks in the bottom half of the MLB in average exit velocity (89.2 mph).

The low pitching velocity has led to very few strikeouts for Gibson this season, 27 in total. That puts him in the bottom 28% of the MLB in Strikeout rate, surpassing four strikeouts in just two of his six starts this season.

Hitters are not swinging and missing often against Gibson, and his 9.8% barrel rate shows opposing hitters are squaring him up quite often. For some comparison, the MLB average Barrel % currently sits at 6.8%.

We saw that occur in Gibson’s last start against the Detroit Tigers. He allowed eight hits and three earned runs in 4.1 innings of work against the lowest scoring team in the MLB, per TeamRankings.

Kansas City Royals

As previously mentioned not much is going well for Kansas City, and it often starts with its pitching.

TeamRankings has Kansas City ranked 28th in the MLB in team ERA, coming in at 5.61. The bullpen’s 5.50 ERA ranks 27th, and it shows that the poor pitching is a problem for the starters and the relievers as neither group can find a rhythm on the mound.

To make matters worse, Zack Greinke is expected to get the start today for Kanas City, a far from ideal spot given the Royals’ recent struggles.

Similar to Gibson, Greinke is struggling mightily with his fastball velocity this season. The 39 year old doesn’t have much juice left in his arm, resulting in a fastball that comes in at 90 mph, per Baseball Savant. As a result, Greinke fails to strikeout many batters and is vulnerable to hard contact, as evidenced by ranking in the 14th percentile of Strikeout % and 18th percentile in average exit velocity.

If there is one thing that Greinke still does well it is limiting walks. He currently sits in the top 15% of the league in Walk rate at 4.4%, well below the MLB average of 8.4%.

What’s the Play?

Neither Gibson nor Greinke has the arm that they used to have, and that should lead to plenty of runs this evening.

Not only is Greinke getting hit hard, but those balls are often up in the air. Greinke owns a 41.1% ground ball rate, the lowest of his career and nearly 4.0% below the MLB average. That will lead to problems today against an Orioles team that owns a Barrel rate of 8.9%.

Additionally, both Baltimore and Kansas City were forced to empty the bullpens last night in an 18 run game. Baltimore utilized four relievers while Kansas City utilized five, so its likely we get a few guys doubling back.

We agree with our model that the over is the best prediction for this matchup, so we’re willing to make it a 3-star play.

3-star play: Over 9 (-115)

Money Line Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers- 18-11 overall this season, 3-2 with Eric Lauer as the starter

• Boston Red Sox- 17-14 overall this season, 11-7 as the home team

• Atlanta Braves- 20-10 overall this season, 8-3 against NL East opponents (Today’s matchup is against Miami)

Over/Under Trends

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 19-9-2 this season, the highest win percentage in the MLB

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 21-10 this season, 12-6 as the home team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Under is 16-12-1 overall, 8-6 as away team

Spread Trends

• Seattle Mariners- Run line is 8-5 as the away team

• Pittsburgh Pirates- Run line is 12-5 as the away team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report on MLB.com

⬇ Phillies tank in Harper’s return. The Philadelphia Phillies finally got their slugger back in the lineup, but Harper and the Phillies did not step up when the lights were brightest. The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated Philadelphia by a score of 13-1, and Harper went 0-4 with three strikeouts. The Phillies are now 15-16 on the season and will look to avoid the sweep this afternoon with Aaron Nola on the mound.

🤕 German Marquez to receive Tommy John surgery. Colorado Rockies pitcher German Marquez is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, effectively ending his season. Marquez was forced to leave Colorado’s matchup against the Guardians on April 26th with forearm tightness, but the injury appears to be much worse than that. Marquez could become a free agent next season if the Rockies don’t pick up his team option.

🔋 White Sox activate Tim Anderson off injured list. Chicago White Sox star shortstop Tim Anderson was activated off the IL yesterday. Chicago went just 3-15 in the 18 games played without Anderson, so his return to the lineup is a welcome one for one of the worst teams in baseball. The Sox are currently on a two-game win streak, defeating the Rays and Twins in consecutive matchups.

📺 Super Bowl LVII sets new record. Even though the game ended nearly three months ago, records are still being set in Super Bowl LVII. The showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs was reportedly watched by 115.1 million people, breaking the previous record of 114.4 million in 2015. Kansas City won the game 38-35, the teams’ second Super Bowl this decade.

💰 Green Bay gives Jordan Love an extension. Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers agreed on a one-year deal worth up to $22.5 million yesterday, with $13.5 million guaranteed. The deal comes after the Packers shipped Aaron Rodger off to the New York Jets, giving Love the keys to the franchise, at least for now. Love was drafted back in 2020 out of Utah State, but has only played in 10 games in his career.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

1. Cleveland Browns legend Jim Brown was one of the more unstoppable players the NFL has ever seen, tallying 14,811 scrimmage yards and 126 touchdowns in his nine-year career. What college did Brown play for before being drafted by Cleveland with the No.6 pick in the 1957 NFL Draft?

2. The NBA Playoffs occur after the regular season, a “tournament” where the top eight teams from the Eastern and Western Conferences battle for a championship. Two teams, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics, have had far more success than any other franchise when it comes to winning said championship. How many championships has each team won?

3. Penn State University’s current colors are white and blue, but it was not always that way. What were the original colors of the university, which are still occasionally worn by their athletic teams?

4. The Iron Bowl is a highly anticipated matchup between two SEC teams that occurs every season. What two schools square off in that game?

Anyone know what has happened on May 3rd throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 3rd…

1936- Joe DiMaggio makes his major league debut for the New York Yankees. DiMaggio would earn three hits in the matchup, the first of 2,214 hits in his career. That performance foreshadowed some of DiMaggio’s greatness, which included getting a hit in an MLB record 56 consecutive games.

1964- Former NHL goaltender and executive Ron Hextall is born in Brandon, Manitoba, Canada. Hextall would go on to play with three teams, Philadelphia, Montreal, and the New York Islanders across 13 seasons. In 1987 he won both the Vezina Trophy and Conn Smythe Trophy, the same year he became the first goalie in NHL history to score a goal.

1977- Former NBA player and current NBA head coach Tyronn Lue is born in Mexico, Missouri. Lue was selected 23rd overall in the 1998 NBA Draft by the Denver Nuggets, but was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers shortly after. He would go on to play for seven teams in his 12-year career, winning two championships with the Lakers in 2000 and 2001.

2018- Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan becomes the first player in NFL history to be paid $30 million per year after signing a $150 million extension. The extension came roughly one year after the infamous 28-3 collapse in the Super Bowl against the Patriots.

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1. Syracuse University

2. 17

3. Black and Pink

4. Auburn and Alabama