In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were no model predictions yesterday, December 15, 2023.

The NFL has blessed us with three games today. Our model’s predictions for all three matchups can be found below.

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

Model Predicts- Bengals ML, OVER 40.5, Vikings +3.5

The Minnesota Vikings will hit the road for the second consecutive week to take on the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday.

The Vikings enter today’s matchup fresh off a brutal 3-0 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, a game where the defense was needed every step of the way. Meanwhile, the Bengals just hung 34 points on the Indianapolis Colts last week, marking the second straight week scoring 34 points with Jake Browning calling the shots.

Our model believes that Browning and the Bengals will extend their win streak to three-games today, but it is forecasting a tight contest. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Minnesota Vikings

• End of the Josh Dobbs era

  • Dobbs moved to third string QB, replaced by Nick Mullens

• Big story is the defense

  • Held Raiders to 0 points last week- same Raiders team that scored 63 on TNF

  • Heavy blitz team- 46.2% blitz rate (1st in NFL)

  • Now rank 5th in opponent EPA/play, 4th in opponent dropback success rate

• Dealing with some injuries

  • Thin at RB- No Mattison or Cam Akers

  • Justin Jefferson expected to see full workload

Cincinnati Bengals

• Jake Browning is still cooking

  • 75% completion % as starter. 629 yards passing over last 2 weeks

  • Some throws down field, but lots of dink-and-dunk throws

• Offensive line is big question mark

  • 31st in pass block win rate- could be trouble against Vikings blitz

• Defense has yet to prove it can consistently stop the pass

  • 31st in opponent dropback success rate. 266 yards on average through air last three weeks

What’s the Play?

This is a strange spot for sports bettors, as you are either buying high on Jake Browning or the Vikings defense. However, we agree with our model this is a good spot to back Minnesota.

Brian Flores has completely turned the Vikings’ defense around, and it all starts with the blitz. There is no doubt that the house is going to be coming for Browning today, and a questionable offensively line is likely to struggle containing it.

Cincinnati has done a great job at playing to Browning’s strengths, but he has yet to see a defense like Minnesota’s. Mullens comes with is question marks too, but we believe he will be able to do enough through the air to compliment his defense this afternoon.

The Play: Vikings +3.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Indianapolis Colts- 7-6 overall this season, 4-1 in last five games

• Detroit Lions- 9-4 overall this season, 4-2 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Pittsburgh Steelers- Under is 10-3 this season, 6-1 as an underdog

• Detroit Lions- Over is 8-5 this season. 4-2 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Minnesota Vikings- 7-4-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog

For additional Week 15 NFL bets, check out our collaboration with Chuck Scalies on Youtube. You can also follow him on the Action Network app at the link below to see all of his plays as he bets them.

Chuck Scalies Action Network- https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/zvyg60r1

⚡️ Staley, Telseco fired by Chargers after TNF loss. The Los Angeles Chargers have dismissed head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco following a recent heavy loss against the Las Vegas Raiders. Chargers owner Dean Spanos cited the need for a new direction due to the team's underperformance despite support from fans. Interim replacements, Giff Smith and JoJo Wooden, step in as head coach and general manager respectively, while the team grapples with its worst record in recent years under Staley's leadership.

🤕 Stroud doubtful against Titans. Houston Texans' quarterback C.J. Stroud is unlikely to play against the Tennessee Titans due to a concussion suffered in Houston’s previous game. The rookie has yet to clear concussion protocol, and as a result has missed practice throughout the week. Davis Mills, with significant starting experience, is expected to step in for Stroud, impacting the team's playoff contention as they strive to secure a postseason spot for the first time since 2019.

16 NCAA basketball games feature a ranked opponent today, and our model has predictions for all 16 matchups. Those predictions can be found below.

Arizona Wildcats @ Purdue Boilermakers

Model Predicts- Arizona ML, UNDER 159.5, Arizona -1

The Arizona Wildcats will make the journey to Indianapolis, Indiana on Saturday to take on the Purdue Boilermakers.

The Wildcats enter today’s top-5 matchup as the No.1 ranked team in the nation, posting a perfect 8-0 record following their most recent win over Wisconsin. Purdue is right behind Arizona in the standings as the No.3 team in the country, with the Boilermakers’ only loss to the season coming against Northwestern.

Purdue is a slight underdog in what is essentially a home game, but our model believes that the Boilermakers should be given a few more points today. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Arizona Wildcats

• 8-0 overall this season

  • Have beaten three ranked teams (Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin). Average win margin in those matchups is 12 points

• Tremendous balance has led to undefeated record

  • Rank 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom)

  • Play at fast pace- 5th in adjusted tempo

• Can score from all levels

  • Shoot 39.1% from three, 51.5% overall

Purdue Boilermakers

• Caught in several close games this season

  • Two of three games against ranked opponents have been decided by four points or less

• Just as much balance as Arizona, but much slower pace

  • Rank 4th in adj. offensive efficiency, 8th in adj. defensive efficiency

  • Rank 159th in adj. tempo

• Lack scoring depth

  • Four players make up 68.7% of points

What’s the Play?

This will likely be a crowd dominated by Purdue fans, as Indianapolis is just 68 miles from West Lafayette. However, we agree with our model that the Wildcats can pick up the win on the road.

Arizona’s biggest advantages today are its fast pace of play and scoring depth. Six Wildcats enter today’s matchup averaging 8.9 points or more per game compared to Purdue’s four, making it tough for opposing defenses to hone in on one guy. Additionally, Arizona’s ability to step on the gas can knock Purdue out of its comfort zone, as the Boilermakers’ 159th ranking in adjusted tempo shows they prefer a slower pace of play.

Zach Edey is obviously a massive threat, but his supporting cast isn’t as strong as Arizona’s, a group that went on the road to take on Duke and won by five. Our model sees a similar outcome this afternoon, so we’ll back the Wildcats.

The Play: Arizona ML (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Clemson- 9-0 overall this season, 3-0 as an underdog

• Arizona- 8-0 overall this season, 3-0 against ranked opponents

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Texas A&M- Over is 7-3 this season, 2-1 as the away team

• Arizona- Under is 5-3 this season, 2-1 against ranked opponents

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Arizona- 8-0 against the spread (ATS) this season, 3-0 ATS against ranked opponents

• Kentucky- 5-4 ATS this season, 1-0 ATS as an underdog

💪 UConn defeats Gonzaga in top-10 battle. The UConn huskies picked up a 76-63 win against Gonzaga last night, showcasing their potential for another championship run. Led by Donovan Clingan and Cam Spencer, UConn's dominant performance highlighted their defensive prowess and momentum going into the Big East with wins over top-tier teams like North Carolina, Indiana, Texas, and Gonzaga. Gonzaga, despite key players' struggles and missed opportunities, faced their second loss in three games, affecting their early-season resume.

📋 Juwan Howard to resume head coaching duties. Michigan's Juwan Howard will resume coaching on Saturday against Eastern Michigan following a heart procedure. Athletic director Warde Manuel expressed gratitude to Martelli for his interim leadership, and clarified the coaching structure's return after an internal review of an incident involving Howard and a team practice. Despite a 5-5 start this season, Michigan previously secured NCAA Tournament appearances and a Big Ten title under Howard's guidance.

There are 10 NBA games scheduled to take place all throughout Saturday. Our model’s predictions for today’s matchups can be found below.

There is no NBA Featured Matchup today.

Money Line Trends 💰

• Brooklyn Nets- 13-11 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• Oklahoma City Thunder- 15-8 overall this season, 4-2 as a road underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Chicago Bulls- Over is 16-10 this season, 8-4 as the away team

• Los Angeles Clippers- Under is 15-8-1 this season, 9-3-1 as the home team

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia 76ers- 17-7 against the spread (ATS) this season, 5-2 ATS as a road favorite

• Brooklyn Nets- 17-6-1 ATS this season, 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog

🤕 Bradley Beal injures ankle in loss to Knicks. Bradley Beal exited Friday's game against the New York Knicks due to an ankle injury during the first quarter. The injury kept Beal sidelined for the rest of the match, resulting from an awkward landing on a jump shot over Knicks' Donte DiVincenzo. Despite an early exit with six points in Friday's game, Beal had previously averaged 16.4 points and four rebounds in his initial five appearances with the Suns.

😬 Cavaliers lose two stars to injuries. Cleveland Cavaliers' Evan Mobley will undergo knee surgery sidelining him for six-to-eight weeks to remove a loose body from his left knee. To make matters worse, his teammate, Darius Garland is expected to miss weeks due to a fractured jaw after colliding with Kristaps Porzingis. Mobley, absent in the last four games, was previously averaging 16 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game, whereas Garland, averaging 20.7 points and leading in assists, faced multiple injuries impacting the team's performance.