In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

NBA Model Predictions- Click Here

NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NBA, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 3-0

Over/Under Predictions: 3-0

Spread Predictions: 2-1

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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14 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 14 matchups can be found below.

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 8, Red Sox +1.5

The Chicago Cubs will begin a seven-game road trip on Friday evening, with the first stop coming in Boston, Massachusetts to take on the Red Sox in a three-game series.

Chicago enters tonight’s matchup as one of the hottest teams in the National League, recently sweeping the Houston Astros earlier in the week. The Cubs now own a 16-9 record following the sweep, while Boston has posted 14 wins and 12 losses through 26 games.

Sportsbooks are essentially making this game a coin flip, but our model sees some value on the Cubs as well as the over. Let’s dive into why that is.

Chicago Cubs

• Enter this series on three-game win streak

  • Sweep over Houston Astros at Wrigley Field

  • Outscored Astros 14-6 in series

• Offense was key to dominance vs Houston

  • Posted a 115 wRC+, and .296 BABIP in series

  • Walks and home runs played big role- 12.2% walk rate, five home runs across three games

• Starting pitcher- Shota Imanaga

  • Tough guy to hit so far- 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 21.1 innings

  • Still some concerns despite hot start- Ranks in bottom 12% of MLB in ground ball rate (32.2%), bottom 7% in Hard Hit Rate (50.8%) and Avg. Exit Velocity (93.0 mph)

Boston Red Sox

• Coming off series loss to Guardians

  • Lost series 2-1. Still posted +3 run differential

  • Not necessarily in slump- have won four of last six games dating back to last Friday

• Team is red hot at the plate entering this series

  • Rank 3rd in wRC+ (138) and BABIP (.342), 1st in OPS (.842)

  • Struggling with strikeouts (24.5% K%), but power hitting is making up for it (9 home runs)

• Starting pitcher- Kutter Crawford

  • Good start to season- 0.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

  • Has his fair share of problems- 39.7% ground ball rate, 7.4% Barrel rate, and 10.0% Walk rate

What’s the Play?

On paper we have two excellent pitchers taking the mound tonight, but we agree with our model that this is a great spot to back the over.

Imanaga and Crawford each having an ERA below 1.00 at this point in the season is impressive, but as all baseball fans know, those numbers are far from sustainable as a starting pitcher, and several metrics indicate that both are due fore regression. Per Baseball Savant, Imanaga owns a 3.37 xERA, while Crawford’s xERA sits at 2.61, showing that each has had a tremendous amount of luck on the mound thus far.

That luck is bound to change, largely due to both pitcher’s inability to keep the ball on the ground, and we believe that will happen today as Chicago and Boston have been dominating opponents at the plate in recent games. Back the over here.

The Play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Chicago Cubs- 16-9 overall this season, 7-3 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 16-8 overall this season, 10-5 as an underdog

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 15-7-2 this season, highest win % in MLB

• Philadelphia Phillies- Under is 15-10-1 this season, 8-1-1 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Baltimore Orioles- Run line is 14-10 this season, 11-9 as a favorite

• Cleveland Guardians- Run line is 18-7 this season, 9-2 as an underdog

🔱 Mariners take down Rangers to take NL West lead. In a turnaround from last season, the Seattle Mariners claimed victory against the Texas Rangers, seizing the series and securing the top spot in the AL West. Ty France and Luis Urías powered the Mariners with two-run homers, supporting pitcher Luis Castillo's solid six-inning performance in a 4-3 win, breaking an eight-game losing streak at the Rangers' ballpark. The Mariners' manager, Scott Servais, credited the team's collective effort for their recent success, emphasizing the need for everyone to contribute until their offense finds its rhythm.

🤕 Athletics place Gelof on 10-Day IL. Oakland Athletics' Zack Gelof landed on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left oblique, discovered after he felt discomfort during his pregame routine. Manager Mark Kotsay expressed relief at the cautious approach, noting Gelof's likely willingness to play through the injury later in the season. With Gelof out, Abraham Toro and rookie Max Schuemann are expected to share second base duties until Gelof's return, with hopes that his time on the IL will be brief.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- What school did Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams attend before transferring to USC?

Question #2- Who holds the MLB record for All-Star Game appearances, participating in the game 21 times in his career?

Question #3- What NHL player has scored the most goals since the 2016 season, finding the back of the net 378 times?

Anyone know what has happened on April 26th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On April 26th…

1990- Texas Rangers pitcher Nolan Ryan throws a no-hitter against the Chicago White Sox. Ryan threw 127 pitches in the game, striking out 16 batters and walking two in a 1-0 win. It was the 12th no-hitter/one-hitter of Ryan’s career, tying him with Bob Feller for the most all-time.

1992- MLB legend Ozzie Smith steals his 500th career base. Smith reached the milestone in a game against the Montreal Expos, and added two more steals later in the game. Smith became just the 16th player in MLB history to swipe 500 bags, and he currently ranks 22nd on the all-time list with 580.

2018- Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield is selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Mayfield was selected by the Cleveland Browns, and was one of four quarterbacks picked inside the top-10, the most in NFL history at the time. Mayfield now plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and also had brief stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams.

1. University of Oklahoma

2. Hank Aaron

3. Alex Ovechkin