In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter presented by SportSense Premium…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 8-7

Over/Under Predictions: 9-6

Run Line Predictions: 9-6

Featured Matchup: 1-0

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15 MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all 15 matchups can be found below.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Baltimore Orioles

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 8, Diamondbacks +1.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up their three-game weekend series on Sunday, with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM Eastern.

Baltimore has taken control of the series early on, picking up two and one-run victories in each of the first two contests. Those wins gave Baltimore sole possession of first place in the AL East division with a 26-12 record, while Arizona sits in third in the NL West at 18-22.

Our model makes this game slightly closer than most sportsbooks expect it to be, but we are more focused on the over in this matchup. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Enter today on two-game losing streak, but have played well this week

  • Lost to Baltimore in Game 1 (4-2) and Game 2 (5-4)

  • Still own 4-2 record over last six games. +10 run differential in that span

• Have been one of better offenses in league this season

  • Rank 11th in wRC+ (104), 13th in OPS (.712), top-eight in walk rate (9.2%) and strikeout rate (19.4%)

  • Big improvements in last six games- wRC+ up to 115, OPS up to .756 thanks to hitting eight home runs

• Starting pitcher- Zac Gallen

  • Due for some regression- 2.84 ERA vs 3.74 xERA

  • Struggling to make guys miss and can’t avoid hard contact- owns 25.5% Whiff rate. Ranks in bottom 10% of MLB in Hard Hit Rate (49.5%) and Average Exit Velocity (91.3 mph)

Baltimore Orioles

• Have been red hot in month of May

  • 7-2 record since May 1st. +18 run differential in that time

• Steady offense has been key to recent success

  • Averaging 5.40 runs per game over last five contests. 4-1 record in that time

  • Rank 10th in wRC+, 7th in home runs (8), and 7th in OPS (.767) in those same five games

• Starting pitcher- Dean Kremer

  • Candidate for regression- 3.57 ERA vs 5.01 xERA

  • Sized up often by opposing hitters- 12.5% Barrel rate ranks in bottom 7% of MLB. Up from 8.9% last season

What’s the Play?

We saw the Diamondbacks and Orioles combine for nine runs yesterday, albeit in extra innings, and we agree with our model that a similar total is in reach this afternoon.

The surface-level numbers for Gallen and Kremer have been good, but each has over performed expectations thus far, and both of these offenses will likely bring their numbers up towards those expected levels. Opposing hitters are consistently crushing the ball against Gallen, while Kremer can’t seem to keep the ball off the barrel, both of which are a recipe for runs in bunches.

Additionally, Zac Gallen is a notoriously worse pitcher on the road. At home this season he owns a 0.53 ERA and has yet to surrender a home run, while on the road we’ve seen his ERA spike to 4.71, largely due to the fact that he has allowed 1.71 home runs per nine innings.

Both offenses can be a nightmare for opposing pitchers, and both of today’s starters have gotten fairly lucky on the mound thus far. We’ll back that luck to change today and take the over.

The Play: Over 8 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Baltimore Orioles- 26-12 overall this season, 14-7 as the home team, 3-0 in last three games

• Los Angeles Dodgers- 27-14 overall this season, 11-6 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 19-16-3 this season, 10-9-2 as the home team

• Seattle Mariners- Under is 25-13-2 this season, 13-6-2 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Washington Nationals- Run line is 24-14 this season, 15-6 as the away team

• Milwaukee Brewers- Run line is 23-16 this season, 9-8 as the home team

💪 Blue Jays rally to complete comeback vs Twins. Ernie Clement's seventh-inning bases-loaded single broke an 8-all tie, propelling the Toronto Blue Jays to a 10-8 victory over the Minnesota Twins. Despite trailing by six runs early, the Blue Jays rallied behind key hits from Danny Jansen, Bo Bichette, and Davis Schneider, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivering a crucial two-run single. Guerrero's performance, along with strong relief pitching, helped the Blue Jays halt the Twins' seven-game road winning streak and snap Minnesota's dominance at the plate in Toronto, securing a much-needed win for the Blue Jays.

🏴‍☠️ Paul Skenes has solid MLB debut vs Cubs. Paul Skenes made an impressive Major League debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates, one that was marred by rain and several delays. Despite some early wildness and a rain delay, Skenes showcased his talent with a blazing fastball, hitting triple digits several times and striking out seven over four innings. The Pirates ultimately secured a narrow 10-9 victory over the Cubs, with Skenes contributing to the win despite being pulled after 84 pitches.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- MLB pitcher Kyle Gibson has played for five MLB teams in his career. Three are the Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies, and Baltimore Orioles, but what are the other two?

Question #2- The Pittsburgh Penguins defeated what Central division team in six games to win the 2017 Stanley Cup Final?

Question #3- New York Yankees pitcher Gerritt Cole was selected with the No.1 overall pick by what team in the 2011 MLB Draft?

Anyone know what has happened on May 12th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On May 12th…

1974- The 28th NBA Championship is contested between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks. The Celtics took home the NBA title in seven games, defeating the Bucks 102-89 in Game 7. Celtics forward/guard John Havilcek was named Finals MVP, the only Finals MVP of his career in eight title victories.

1979- Former NFL player Steve Smith Sr. is born in Los Angeles, California. Smith stormed on to the football scene during his time at University High School, where he played running back and defensive back, and played well enough to earn a roster spot at Santa Monica college. He would eventually transfer to the University of Utah, and was selected with the 74th pick in the 2001 NFL Draft.

2013- Tiger Woods wins the PGA Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Woods won the tournament with a 13-under par final score, two strokes ahead of David Lingmerth, Jeff Magert, and Kevin Streelman. The victory was the second for Woods at the Players Championship, with his first win coming in 2001.

1. Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals

2. Nashville Predators

3. Pittsburgh Pirates