Offenses Set to Thrive in Dallas

In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions ⬇️ 

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NHL Model Predictions- Click Here

NCAAB Model Predictions- Click Here

CFP Bracket Projections- Click Here

There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 9-2

Over/Under Predictions: 1-10

Spread Predictions: 7-3-1

Featured Matchup: 0-1

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One NFL game is scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for that matchup can be found below.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys

Model Predicts- Bengals ML, OVER 49.5, Cowboys +5.5

The Cincinnati Bengals will hit the road for the third time in four weeks on Sunday, traveling to Dallas, Texas to battle the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.

Cincinnati enters this weeks matchup in the midst a slump, losing three-consecutive games to drop the Bengals’ record to 4-8 for the season. Meanwhile, Dallas has won two-consecutive games to turn its season around, bringing the Cowboys’ record to 5-7 for the season.

Cincinnati can’t seem to get out of its downward spiral, but our model projects that to end tonight in a high-scoring game. Let’s dive into why that is.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Enter today on three-game losing streak

  • Losses to Ravens, Chargers, and Steelers

  • Own -14 point differential in that span

• Defense has been sole group responsible for three-game losing streak

  • Rank 32nd in opponent EPA/play and opponent success rate since Week 10

  • Surrendering 7.2 yards/play, 448 yards/game, and 37.7 points/game in that span- rank in bottom-two in all three categories

• Joe Burrow and offense are still producing at high level

  • Rank top-four in EPA/play and yards/play during losing streak. Averaging 33.0 points/game

Dallas Cowboys

• Enter Monday Night Football on two-game win streak

  • One win over Commanders, one win over Giants

  • Outscoring opponents 61-46 during win streak

• Offense starting to figure things out with Cooper Rush as starter

  • First two games with Rush- Ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate. Averaged 267 yards/game and 8.0 points/game

  • Last two games with rush- Rank 21st in EPA/play and 18th in success rate. Averaging 289.5 yards/game and 30.5 points/game

• Defense tends to perform worse at home than on road

  • Home stats- Opponents averaging 6.5 yards/play, 394.3 yards/game

  • Road stats- Opponent averaging 5.1 yards/play, 325 yards/game

What’s the Play?

Our model had some bad luck with over/under predictions on Sunday, but we are going back to a total bet here are taking the over on Monday Night Football.

Dallas has improved defensively during its win streak, largely because Micah Parsons is back in the lineup. However, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati are operating at an efficient level through the air despite losing three-consecutive games, averaging 11.3 yards/completion. Going against this Dallas secondary that has been shredded at home this season is an excellent opportunity for the Bengals to move down the field in chunks, putting them in a great spot to score against the worst red zone defense in the NFL.

Unfortunately for the Bengals, Cincinnati’s defense is filled with holes at every level, ranking in the bottom-11 of the NFL in opponent yards/carry (4.8) and opponent yards/completion (13.8) across the last three games. Cooper Rush and a questionable running game still make the Cowboys offense a wild card week-to-week, but we’re confident both groups will find success here.

Lastly, Dallas and Cincinnati tend to play at a fast pace, with the Cowboys ranking first in seconds/play and Cincinnati ranking 14th. The fast pace, combined with leaky defenses and recently-efficient offenses, makes a shootout possible here, so we’ll back the over.

The Play: Over 49.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Cincinnati Bengals- 4-8 overall this season, 3-3 as the away team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cincinnati Bengals- Over is 9-3 this season, 4-2 as the away team, and 3-0 in last three games with average total of 70.7

• Dallas Cowboys- Over is 8-4 this season, 3-1 as a home underdog

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Dallas Cowboys- 4-8 against the spread (ATS) this season, 2-0 ATS in last two games

🦅 Saquon Barley sets franchise record in Eagles’ win over Panthers. Saquon Barkley broke the Eagles' single-season rushing record with 124 yards, while Jalen Hurts contributed two touchdown passes and a rushing score to lead Philadelphia to a 22-16 victory over the Panthers, marking their ninth consecutive win. The Eagles (11-2) maintained their position as the NFC's No. 2 team, with standout moments including C.J. Gardner-Johnson's pivotal interception and Hurts' go-ahead TD pass to DeVonta Smith. Despite a valiant effort from Bryce Young and the Panthers, Philadelphia's defense held firm in the final moments to secure the win.

🏴‍☠️ Buccaneers take over first place in NFC South with win over Raiders. Baker Mayfield threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, leading the Buccaneers to a 28-13 victory over the Raiders and taking sole possession of first place in the NFC South. Rookie Jalen McMillan caught two scoring passes, while Rachaad White added two touchdowns as Tampa Bay (7-6) secured its third straight win to bolster its division title hopes. The Raiders (2-11) extended their nine-game losing streak and lost quarterback Aidan O’Connell to a knee injury late in the game.

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Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- 27 wide receivers were selected in the 2013 NFL Draft. Who was the first one off the board, getting selected eighth overall out of West Virginia?

Question #2- The Philadelphia Phillies defeated what team in five games to win the 2008 World Series?

Question #3- Two players recorded more than 1,000 rebounds during the 2010-11 season. One of those players was Kevin Love, but who was the other?

Anyone know what has happened on December 9th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On December 9th…

1985- Jerry Rice records 10 receptions and 241 yards in a 27-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The performance started a legendary streak for Rice, one that saw him record at least one reception in 274 consecutive games. The streak remains the NFL record to this day, with the next closest player being Tony Gonzalez at 265 games.

2018- New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady throws three touchdown passes in a 34-33 loss to the Miami Dolphins. The performance gave Brady 582 touchdown passes for his career, moving him past Peyton Manning for the most touchdown passes in NFL history (regular season and playoffs). Brady ended his career with 737 touchdown passes across the regular and postseasons, the most in NFL history.

2023- LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels wins the 89th Heisman Trophy. Daniels won the Heisman following a dominant season, one in which he recorded 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns through the air and an additional 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He went on to be selected with the No.2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders, who currently possess an 8-5 record.

1. Tavon Austin

2. Tampa Bay Rays

3. Dwight Howard