In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

Additional Model Predictions & Bonuses ⬇️

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There were plenty of model predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 1-0 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 9-5

Run Line Predictions: 5-9

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Nine MLB games are scheduled to take place today. Our model’s predictions for all nine matchups can be found below.

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants

Model Predicts- Cubs ML, OVER 7.5, Giants +1.5

The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants will wrap up a four-game series later this afternoon, with the first pitch of Game 4 set to be thrown at 3:45 PM Eastern.

San Francisco has dominated the series up to this point, taking home the victory in each of the first three games. That three-game win streak has slightly improved the Giants’ record to 39-42, while the three losses moved the Cubs’ record to 37-44.

The Cubs have had no answers for the Giants thus far, but our model expects Chicago to find the win column today in a high-scoring contest. Let’s take a look at why that is.

Chicago Cubs

• Enter today on four-game losing streak

  • One loss to Mets, three losses to Giants

  • -9 run differential in that span

• Offense has been poor last four games, but is better for month as a whole

  • Last 4 games- 86 wRC+, .329 BABIP, and .631 OPS

  • Since June 1st- 98 wRC+, .297 BABIP, and , .684 OPS

• Starting pitcher- Shota Imanaga

  • Due for some regression- 2.96 ERA vs 3.55 xERA

  • Struggles with fly balls and barrel contact- ranks in bottom 16% of MLB in Barrel rate (10.0%) and ground ball rate (34.5%)

San Francisco Giants

• Have handled Cubs with ease in series

  • 3-0 in three games. +6 run differential

  • Win streak comes after five-game losing streak

• Crushing left-handed pitchers this month

  • Rank 3rd in wRC+ (153), 2nd in BABIP (.359), and 4th in OPS (.880)

  • 36 runs scored against lefties since June 1st- 6th most in MLB

• Starting pitcher- Jordan Hicks

  • Due to see heavy regression- 3.24 ERA vs 4.52 xERA

What’s the Play?

It’s a tough sell to back this struggling Cubs squad even with Shota Imanaga on the mound, but we do agree with our model to back the over in this series finale.

Imanaga was a candidate for regression for quite some time, and his opponents are finally starting to make that happen. Imanaga owns a 7.53 ERA across his last 25.1 innings, which includes surrendering 10 earned runs and 11 hits across 3.0 innings the last time we saw him on the mound. His issues with fly balls and barrel contact will be the exact reason he continues to regress, and a Giants offense that has killed lefties this month should still have enough gas in the tank to do some damage today.

Although Chicago has been unreliable offensively recently, Hicks presents them with a solid matchup, as his underlying metrics show more runs are on the horizon while he is on the mound.

Both pitchers are due for further regression, and each offense has either been average or great against their pitching matchup this month. That should lead to plenty of runs.

The Play: Over 7.5 (-115)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Twins- 44-36 overall this season, 21-20 as the away team

• Cleveland Guardians- 51-27 overall this season, 25-18 as the away team, and 7-3 in last 10 games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• San Francisco Giants- Over is 44-35-2 this season, 20-16-2 following a win

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 41-30-9 this season, 19-17-6 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Philadelphia Phillies- Run line is 37-30 as a favorite this season

💪 Astros reach .500 mark for first time this season. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings, and Yainer Diaz had three hits to lead the Houston Astros to a 7-1 victory over the Colorado Rockies, extending their winning streak to seven games. This win brought the Astros to a 40-40 record, reaching .500 for the first time this season, a significant milestone for the team. The Rockies fell to 0-4 against Houston this year, losing 11 straight at Minute Maid Park, with their only run coming on a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning.

🧹 Mets sweep Yankees in Subway Series. Francisco Alvarez went 3 for 3 with a homer and three RBIs, while Tyrone Taylor added a three-run homer, leading the New York Mets to a 12-2 victory over the New York Yankees, completing a two-game Subway Series sweep. The Mets, now 39-39, chased Yankees rookie Luis Gil in the fifth inning and have homered in 10 consecutive games, climbing back to .500 for the first time since mid-May. Despite the Yankees’ struggles, including losing four consecutive series, Aaron Judge hit his 30th homer before the All-Star break for the third time in his career, while manager Aaron Boone expressed confidence in the team's ability to overcome their rough patch.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- The Memphis Grizzlies have been located in Memphis since 2001, the city the franchise relocated to following a brief six-year stint in what other city?

Question #2- Home runs and extra-base hits are by no means easy to come by in baseball, except for one player who is still to this day the only player in MLB history to record 50 doubles and 50 home runs in the same season. Who is that player?

Question #3- DeSean Jackson was selected with the 49th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft by the Philadelphia Eagles. Jackson would play for the Eagles until he was released in March of 2014. What team signed Jackson following his release?

Anyone know what has happened on June 27th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On June 27th…

1980- Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Jerry Reuss throws his first and only no-hitter of his career in a 8-0 shutout victory over the San Francisco Giants. The performance was the first no-hitter of the 1980 MLB season and the 16th in Dodgers team history, and Reuss was one throwing error away from having a perfect game. Reuss would go on to finish the 1980 season with a stellar 18-6 record and 2.51 ERA, collecting 10 complete games and six shutouts along the way.

2001- The Washington Wizards select Kwame Brown with the No.1 overall pick in the 2001 NBA Draft. Brown was selected out of Glynn Academy in Georgia, bypassing the NCAA despite signing a letter of intent with the Florida Gators. He would go on to have lengthy 12-year NBA career, but bounced around and played for seven different teams in that time while averaging just 6.6 points per game in 607 career appearances.

2013- The Cleveland Cavaliers select UNLV forward Anthony Bennett with the first overall pick of the 2013 NBA Draft, becoming the first Canadian player to be selected No.1 overall. To this day Bennett is widely regarded as one of the biggest busts in NBA history, averaging just 4.4 points per game in 151 appearances. Bennett only played one season for the Cavaliers, eventually finding his way to the Timberwolves, Raptors, and Nets throughout the following three seasons.

1. Vancouver

2. Albert Belle

3. Washington Redskins (now the Washington Commanders)