In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 7-7

Over/Under Predictions: 4-8

Run Line Predictions: 7-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

✈️ Jets hand reigns to Wilson after Rodgers injury. Following Aaron Rodgers' season-ending Achilles tear injury, New York Jets coach Robert Saleh expressed confidence in Zach Wilson as the new starting quarterback. Rodgers, who suffered the injury in the Jets' recent game against the Buffalo Bills, has been placed on injured reserve and will undergo surgery, with the hope that he will remain with the team during his rehab. While veteran backup Tim Boyle will be brought in for the upcoming game, Saleh emphasized that Wilson is the team's QB1, ending the expectation of Rodgers mentoring Wilson for a few years before returning as the starter.

🤕 Steelers dealing with injuries to key players. Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is expected to be sidelined for "a few weeks" due to a hamstring injury sustained during the game against the San Francisco 49ers. Additionally, six-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Cameron Heyward suffered a groin injury and may also miss several weeks, with surgery planned. Coach Mike Tomlin emphasized the team's "next man up" mentality to fill the gaps left by these injuries and expressed confidence in their in-house depth, though they won't rule out exploring external options.

🐆 Jaycee Horn expected to miss several weeks for Panthers. Carolina Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn, who has faced injury setbacks during his first two NFL seasons, will miss some time once again. Horn is set to miss the upcoming Monday night game against the New Orleans Saints due to a hamstring injury he sustained in the previous game against the Atlanta Falcons, which is expected to sidelined him for several weeks. In his absence, veteran Troy Hill is likely to step in as his replacement, as coach Frank Reich noted Hill's strong performance after taking over for Horn in the previous game.

There are 15 MLB games set to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to gaps in the season data and lines being unavailable at the time the model was run, our model has predictions for 13 of today’s matchups.

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Model Predicts- Dodgers ML, UNDER 9, Dodgers -1.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will close out their season series in Los Angeles later today.

San Diego began this final series on the right foot, taking down L.A in Game 1 with a thrilling 11-8 victory. However, the tables were turned last night in Game 2, a contest that the Dodgers won 11-2.

Blake Snell getting the start for San Diego immediately puts the Padres in a great position, but our model likes the Dodgers to pick up another win in a low-scoring contest. Le’s dive into why that is and see our model’s best bet for this matchup.

San Diego Padres

• Currently sit in 4th in NL West at 68-78. Eight games back of final NL Wild Card spot

• Mediocrity at the plate has been downfall of team this season

  • Rank 11th in wRC+ (106), 27th in BABIP (.278), 13th in home runs (188), and 18th in Hard Hit rate (32.6%), per FanGraphs

  • Do some things very well, such as generate walks (10.5% walk rate) but have been far too inconsistent to stack wins in bunches

• Tremendous pitching staff

  • Starters rank 6th in ERA (3.97), bullpen ranks 13th in ERA (3.90)

  • Blake Snell (13-9 record, 2.52 ERA) will get the start. Owns 0.90 ERA in last three starts and has only surrendered more than 3 earned runs one time since May 19th. Struggles with control (13.7% walk rate), but ranks in top 8% in both Whiff and strikeout rate this season

Los Angeles Dodgers

• One of hottest offenses in league in September

  • Rank 6th in wRC+ (123), 5th in BABIP (.325), and 7th in OPS (.811) since September 1st

  • Own 12.1% walk rate in that time- second highest in MLB

• Ryan Pepiot (2-0 record, 0.86 ERA) will get start on mound

  • Has only pitched 21.0 innings this season, but has dominated in that time

  • Exceptional control- 2.7% walk rate. Down from 16.9% a season ago

  • Opposing hitters have trouble sizing him up- 22.2% Hard Hit rate, 85.6 mph average exit velocity, and 3.7% Barrel rate

  • 2.71 xERA (expected ERA) against his 0.86 actual ERA signals some regression in the future, but number indicates success on mound

What’s the Play?

The sample size for Pepiot is rather small at just 21 innings, so the advantage that our model is giving the Dodgers may be overstated. However, we agree with our model that we should see a low-scoring contest between the Padres and Dodgers.

Walks are a massive concern for Snell, especially while going up against a Dodgers team that generates the most walks per game (4.16), per TeamRankings. However, he has shown he can make up for it by striking guys out in bunches, which will keep the Dodgers from scoring.

Pepiot is sort of the opposite. He doesn’t generate many strikeouts, but also walks just 3% of batter he faces. That’s a big reason why he has only allowed three hits and zero runs over his last 12 innings.

We expect a pitchers duel today, so we’ll back the under.

The Play: Under 9 (-120)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Tampa Bay Rays- 89-57 overall this season, 39-32 as the away team, 7-3 in last ten games

• Detroit Tigers- 66-78 overall this season, 6-4 in last ten games

• Milwaukee Brewers- 81-63 overall this season, 42-28 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Cleveland Guardians- Under is 84-59-3 this season, highest win percentage in MLB

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 76-61-8 this season, 38-27-5 as the home team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Cincinnati Reds- Run line is 90-56 overall this season, 42-20 as a road underdog

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😬 Max Scherzer injured against Blue Jays. Texas Rangers pitcher Max Scherzer left the game against the Blue Jays in the sixth inning due to a right triceps spasm, with an MRI scheduled for Wednesday. Manager Bruce Bochy and the trainer visited the mound when Scherzer experienced discomfort on his first pitch to Bo Bichette, leading to his exit and replacement by José Leclerc. Despite exiting early, Scherzer had a strong performance, allowing no runs and breaking a four-start winless streak, throwing 73 pitches with 49 strikes.

⚾️ Mets hire David Stearns. The New York Mets have selected David Stearns as their new president of baseball operations. The move brings the architect of multiple division titles in Milwaukee to the organization, with the goal of delivering their first World Series championship in nearly four decades. Stearns, who is set to start his five-year deal in early October after the regular season concludes, will be responsible for reshaping the Mets' front office alongside general manager Billy Eppler.

🤕 Alek Manoah unlikely to pitch for rest of 2023. Alek Manoah, the Toronto Blue Jays' Opening Day starter who was later demoted to the minors, is unlikely to return to the mound this season due to injuries to his knee, back, and right quad, according to SportsNet. Specialists didn't find any structural damage but recommended that Manoah take the rest of the season off to recover. Manoah's 2023 season faced challenges from the start, with a tough Opening Day outing, leading to his eventual demotion to the Rookie-level Florida Complex League in June.

🏈 McCord named OSU starter for rest of season. Ohio State coach Ryan Day has officially named Kyle McCord as the starting quarterback for the remainder of the season, ending weeks of uncertainty regarding the full-time starter. Initially, Day had a quarterback competition between McCord and Devin Brown, with neither player gaining a significant advantage. However, after starting the first two games, Day has now made the decision to establish McCord as the starter, citing his growing understanding of the game and consistent performance.

⚽️ Messi not on pitch for World Cup qualifying match. In Argentina's recent World Cup qualifying match against Bolivia in La Paz, Lionel Messi was notably absent from the matchday squad. Despite scoring a crucial goal with a free kick in their previous game against Ecuador, Messi was left out due to concerns about his fitness, with manager Lionel Scaloni citing his discomfort and the need to avoid risking further injury. Argentina went on to win 3-0 against Bolivia with Angel Di Maria as captain in Messi's absence.

🥅 Carey Price unlikely to return to ice. Montreal Canadiens goalie Carey Price confirmed in a news conference on Tuesday that his return to the ice is unlikely. Price, who hasn't played an NHL game since April 29th, 2022, and missed most of the 2021-22 and the entire 2022-23 seasons due to a knee injury, expressed that his readiness to handle the stresses of the goaltending position isn't where it needs to be. Price is still being under contract with the Canadiens for three more seasons with a $10.5 million cap hit, leaving open the possibility of the Canadiens trading his contract.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Four NFL players have won the Super Bowl at the age of 40 or older. Three of those players are Tom Brady, Jeff Feagles, and Mike Horan, but who is the fourth?

Question #2- Which NBA player holds the single-season record for free throw percentage at 98.05%?

Question #3- Mark Messier ranks third on the NHL’s all-time points list. Can you name the two players in front of him?

Anyone know what has happened on September 13th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 13th…

1991- Joe Carter becomes the first player in MLB history to record 100 RBIs in three consecutive seasons with three different teams. Carter accomplished the feat as a member of the Indians, Padres, and Blue Jays, and surpassed the 100 RBI milestone in 10 of his 17 MLB seasons. He would retire with 1,445 RBIs, ranking him 64th all-time.

1999- John Elway’s #7 jersey is retired by the Denver Broncos. Elway played his entire career in the Mile High City, leading the Broncos to two Super Bowl victories while collecting nine Pro Bowls and one MVP along the way. Elway would retire from football in 1998, later becoming an executive with Denver.

2020- Chicago Cubs pitcher Alec Mills throws a no-hitter in a 12-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. Mills threw 114 pitches and struck out five hitters in what was just his 15th career start, also posting the second no-hitter of the 2020 season. Mills is currently a member of the Cincinnati Reds organization, but has struggled to find his footing in the big leagues after posting a 12-14 record and 5.00 ERA for his career.

1. Andrew Whitworth

2. José Calderón

3. Jaromir Jagr and Wayne Gretzky