In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the MLB, with our model focusing in on one of those predictions in our Featured Matchup. That prediction went 0-1 overall, and you can see how the rest of the model performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-3

Over/Under Predictions: 6-6-1

Run Line Predictions: 6-7

Featured Matchup: 0-1

🤕 Travis Kelce suffers knee injury in practice. The Kansas City Chiefs are set to kick off the NFL season against the Detroit Lions on Thursday night, but they might be missing one of their top players. Head Coach Andy Reid revealed in a brief press conference that star tight end Travis Kelce hyper-extended his knee during practice, leaving his availability for Thursday uncertain. While initial reports suggest Kelce's injury isn't long-term and hasn't damaged his ACL, further tests are needed, potentially sidelining him for one to two weeks.

🚔 Jack Jones has gun charges dropped. New England Patriots cornerback Jack Jones had the gun charges against him dropped on Tuesday, in exchange for a one-year pre-trial probation and 48 hours of community service on other counts. Jones was initially arrested at Boston's Logan Airport on June 16 after firearms and ammunition were found in a bag with his name on it. The dropped charges were related to the firearms, while he will serve probation and community service for a security violation, with the community service focused on firearm safety education.

🤬 Chandler Jones releases frustration on Raiders. Chandler Jones expressed his frustration with the Las Vegas Raiders on Instagram on Tuesday, sharing messages that revealed his dissatisfaction with team officials. He claimed he was denied access to the team's gym, and he posted a text exchange with the general manager and head coach, expressing his disappointment that they didn't respond to his messages. Jones also suggested he didn't want to play for the Raiders if the current head coach and general manager remained, hinting at a preference for defensive coordinator Patrick Graham to lead the team.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening, and our model has predictions for all 15 matchups. You can those predictions below.

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

Model Predicts- Orioles ML, OVER 9, Angels +1.5

The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels will finish up their three-game series on Wednesday night.

Baltimore has had firm control over the series up to this point, winning each of the first two games. The O’s have now won four straight contests and are 4-1 in September, while L.A. has yet to find the win column since the calendar flipped.

Los Angeles doesn’t exactly have much to play for, and with Shohei Ohtani potentially missing today’s game, our model thinks the Orioles will extend their win streak to five. Let’s take a look at why our model thinks that is the case.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore has been one of the most entertaining teams of the 2023 season, and following last night’s win is now on pace to win 102 games this season.

Positive shifts at the plate have propelled Baltimore to the top of the AL East just one season after winning 83 games. In 2022 we saw the O’s post a 99 wRC+, .284 BABIP, and 23.0% strikeout rate, per FanGraphs, ranking in the bottom half of the MLB in all three categories. Just one year later, Baltimore has seen those numbers improve to 104, .305, and 21.9%, respectively, a big reason why this is the best team in the AL.

The offense has come alive even more over Baltimore’s four-game win streak, posting a 129 wRC+ and seeing its strikeout rate drop to 19.2%. It’s .385 BABIP indicates that some luck may be on their side, but you can’t blame the O’s for making contact, and they are being rewarded for it.

Obviously, the pitching staff has contributed to the early success this month too, ranking in the top-10 in ERA (3.65) and FIP (4.18). However, Kyle Gibson (13-8 record, 5.15 ERA) will take the mound tonight, likely putting those numbers in jeopardy.

Gibson is coming off a month in which he posted a 7.89 ERA, the highest of any Orioles pitcher. He did a tremendous job at limiting walks, but opposing hitters had no troubles sizing him up, taking him yard eight times in 30 innings. He now ranks in the bottom 26% in strikeout rate, hard hit rate, and xBA.

Los Angeles Angels

Just when you think the Angels may have found rock bottom, they find a way to keep making things worse.

As previously mentioned, L.A. has yet to pick up a win this month, averaging just 3.2 runs per game and posting a -17 run differential across five games. Additionally, Shohei Ohtani has missed the last two games with an oblique injury, and his status for tonight is still up in the air.

However, even if Ohtani’s bat was in the lineup, it likely wouldn’t make much of a difference because the Angels’ pitching staff is in shambles at the moment.

According to FanGraphs, the Angels own a 6.07 ERA since September 1st, the eighth-worst mark in the MLB. That number has come about due to a poor ground ball rate (35.5%), .348 BABIP, and 19.5% strikeout rate, showing that opposing hitters are seeing the ball well out of the hand and doing enough damage to get on base.

Patrick Sandoval (7-11 record, 4.19 ERA) will get the opportunity to bring those numbers back down tonight. Sandoval owned a 3.96 ERA in August, but his 4.74 FIP is a cause for concern. He also posted an abysmal 15.9% walk rate last month, which could pose a problem against a lethal offense.

What’s the Play?

Neither one of today’s starting pitchers is particularly strong on the mound, so we agree with our model that there is some value on the over tonight.

Gibson can’t keep a baseball on the ground to save his life, and Sandoval’s 40.9% ground ball rate last month indicates that he is having similar troubles. Additionally, Sandoval has surrendered a total of 16 walks in his last 17 innings, and when you combine that with Gibson’s vulnerability to the long ball, you get a recipe for runs.

Our model gives the over a 52.55% chance to hit at nine runs, a total that has been reached in four straight games for Baltimore and four of the last five for Los Angeles.

The Play: Over 9 (+100)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Minnesota Twins- 73-66 overall this season, 26-21 against division opponents (Play AL Central rival Cleveland this afternoon)

• Houston Astros- 79-61 overall this season, 7-2 against the Texas Rangers

• Baltimore Orioles- 87-51 overall this season, 45-25 as the away team, 4-0 in last four games

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Toronto Blue Jays- Under is 73-59-7 this season, 37-34-3 as the away team

• Boston Red Sox- Over is 74-61-4 this season, 22-13 against division opponents (Play AL East rival Tampa Bay today)

• Baltimore Orioles- Over is 70-57-11 this season, 38-27-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Toronto Blue Jays- Run line is 4-2 in last six games as a favorite

• Seattle Mariners- Run line is 69-69 this season, 40-30 as the away team

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

🤕 Anthony Rizzo shut down for rest of season. New York Yankees' first baseman Anthony Rizzo will miss the rest of the season due to post-concussion syndrome, according to manager Aaron Boone. Rizzo had been placed on the injured list in August, two months after colliding with Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres. While he passed MLB's concussion testing, Rizzo's performance declined significantly, and neurological testing later revealed cognitive impairment, believed to be linked to the collision.

💪 Jose Altuve has MONSTER night against Rangers. Jose Altuve had an explosive performance in the Houston Astros' dominant 14-1 victory against the Texas Rangers, smashing three home runs within the first three innings of the game. The homers came off Rangers' pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Dane Dunning, eventually leading to Altuve's early exit from the game. This remarkable feat included Altuve tying the MLB record for five homers in a two-game span and becoming the first player since 1961 to hit home runs in four consecutive innings.

🤨 Alek Manoah’s bizarre season appears to have ended. Alek Manoah's return to the mound appears uncertain as the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons have placed him on the temporarily inactive list, allowing minor-league players an excused leave of absence. Manoah last pitched on August 10 for the Toronto Blue Jays, and despite being optioned to Triple-A, he underwent extensive medical testing due to lingering pain, delaying his return. While the plan is for him to rebuild his workload, it's increasingly likely that Manoah may not pitch again this season, with the focus shifting to his readiness for 2024.

🇺🇸 USA bounces back against Italy at FIBA World Cup. USA Basketball delivered a commanding performance against Italy on Tuesday, led by Mikal Bridges with 24 points and Tyrese Haliburton with 18 points, advancing to the semifinals with a 100-63 victory. The United States, now boasting a 5-1 record, dominated throughout the game, holding Italy to just 30.7% shooting from the field and outrebounding them 51-33. Despite their previous upset loss to Lithuania, Team USA secured a spot in the 2024 Olympic Games as one of the top two countries in the Americas region and will now face the winner of the Germany vs. Latvia quarterfinal matchup in the semifinals.

🏈 Colorado, Duke ranked in top-25 after upset victories. The Colorado Buffaloes and Duke Blue Devils find themselves ranked in the top-25 this week following their upsets over TCU and Clemson, respectively. Other notable moves were the Florida State Seminoles moving up to the No.4 slot, while LUS fell nine spots to No.14. Unsurprisingly, Georgia remains the top dog at No.1, with Michigan and Alabama right on its tail.

🔔 Danny Green returns to Philadelphia. Free agent guard Danny Green has inked a one-year agreement with the Philadelphia 76ers, according to his agent, Sam Permut of Roc Nation Sports. The 36-year-old Green is making a return to the Sixers, with his existing relationships, particularly with Joel Embiid and new coach Nick Nurse, factoring into the team's decision to invite him to training camp with a strong chance of securing a spot on the opening night roster. Despite a significant setback due to injury, Green, a three-time NBA champion, has remained a consistent presence in the postseason, and he brings his sharpshooting skills to the Sixers, having previously shot 39.5% on 3-pointers during his two-year stint with the team.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Which NFL team has the longest-active playoff streak, and how many years in a row has that team made the postseason?

Question #2- Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is in his second season with the Ducks, but what school did Nix attend prior to transferring to Oregon?

Question #3- The University of Central Arkansas has only produced one NBA player. Can you name that player?

Anyone know what has happened on September 6th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 6th…

1990- American basketball player John Wall is born in Raleigh, North Carolina. Wall would become one of the greatest high school basketball players the country has ever seen, eventually taking his talents to the University of Kentucky before being selected with the No.1 overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft by the Washington Wizards. The 5-time All-Star is currently a free agent at the age of 34, last playing for the LA Clippers.

1996- Baltimore Orioles legend Eddie Murray hits his 500th career home run. in a 5-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers. Murray’s milestone homer came in the seventh inning off Tigers pitcher Felipe Lira, giving Murray 21 homers for the season. “Steady Eddie” would retire just over one year after making history, ending his Hall of Fame career with 504 home runs.

2020- Novak Dokovic is disqualified in the fourth round of the U.S. Open after trailing Pablo Carreno Busta 5-6 in the first set. Dokovic, who at the time was ranked No.1 in the world, was disqualified after hitting a ball out of frustration, which happened to hit a line judge. In addition to his disqualification, he was forced to forfeit the $250,000 he earned for making it to the 4th round.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8)

2. Auburn

3. Scottie Pippen