In today’s SportSense Entertainment Newsletter…

There were plenty of predictions to go around yesterday across the NFL and MLB, with our model focusing in on two of those predictions in our Featured Matchups. Those predictions went 1-1 overall, and you can see how each of the models performed below.

Money Line Predictions: 10-4

Over/Under Predictions: 9-5

Spread Predictions: 10-4

Featured Matchup: 1-0

Money Line Predictions: 8-5

Over/Under Predictions: 7-5-1

Run Line Predictions: 8-5

Featured Matchup: 0-1

There is one NFL game set to take place today, with that matchup being an AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Model Predicts- Bills ML, UNDER 45.5, Bills -2

The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets will take their rivalry to MetLife Stadium on Monday night.

Buffalo ended last season at 13-3 and at the top of the AFC East, but was bounced early in the postseason following a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile, New York finished 7-10 in 2022, but made significant upgrades to its roster in the offseason.

A lot of hype surrounds both of these teams this season, but our model likes the Bills to take care of business on the road. Let’s see why that is the case.

Buffalo Bills

• Have won AFC East three consecutive seasons

• Defense is star of the show

  • Allowed 319.1 yards per game (6th fewest), 17.9 points per game (2nd fewest) and 5.1 yards per play (7th fewest) in 2022

  • Did with Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde missing most of season and Jordan Poyer missing five games. All healthy to begin season

  • Von Miller will miss at least four weeks, but signed Leonard Floyd to boost pass rush in his absence

• Some new faces on offense

  • Drafted Dalton Kincaid (tight end), signed Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to back up running back James Cook

New York Jets

• TONS of offseason additions

  • Added Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, Dalvin Cook, Randall Cobb, and Adrian Amos

• Cook has been with team for one month

  • Expected to handle bulk of carries as Breece Hall eases back in after torn ACL

  • Has had at least 1,100 rush yards in four straight seasons

• Rodgers coming off worse season in a long time

  • 3,695 passing yards (fewest since in full season since 2010), 26 TDs (fewest since 2018), 12 interceptions (most since 2008)

• New York owns a top defensive unit in NFL

  • Surrendered 311.1 yards per game (4th fewest) and 18.6 points per game (4th fewest) in 2022

  • Allowed 4.8 yards per play (second fewest)

What’s the Play?

Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers are stealing the headlines before kickoff, however, we believe that the defenses are the real stars of the show. That should result in a low scoring game like our model is predicting.

What Buffalo was able to accomplish on defense last season with a ton of stars missing was spectacular. The Bills’ secondary was in shambles after White and Hyde went down, yet the group stayed in the top five across most categories last season.

New York is just as talented, if not more on defense too. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are tremendous on the outside, and this team generated the 7th most sacks last season.

Our model is projecting 41 points tonight, so we’ll back the under here.

The Play: Under 45.5 (-110)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Buffalo Bills- 14-4 overall in 2022, 5-2 against division opponents (Play AFC East rival New York tonight)

• New York Jets- 5-25 overall against AFC East opponents since 2018

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• Buffalo Bills- Under was 11-7 in 2022, 7-1 as the road team

• New York Jets- Under was 12-5 in 2022, highest win percentage in NFL

Spread Trends ➕➖

• Buffalo Bills- 8-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2022

• New York Jets- 10-20 ATS against AFC East opponents since 2018

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

• Buffalo Bills

  • Von Miller (OUT)

• New York Jets

  • Mekhi Becton (Questionable), Breece Hall (Questionable)

🤕 J.K. Dobbins tears achilles in Week 1. Shortly after Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins left the field with assistance on Sunday, it was reported that he had suffered a torn Achilles, a diagnosis later confirmed by head coach John Harbaugh. This unfortunate injury will sideline Dobbins for the remainder of the season, compounding his previous setbacks, including a torn ACL in 2021 and recurring knee problems in the previous season. This injury setback is unlikely to improve his chances of securing a contract extension with the Baltimore Ravens, likely prompting the team to seek additional running back talent in the near future.

🏟 Brady returns to Foxborough. Tom Brady made a triumphant return to Gillette Stadium for the Patriots' season opener against the Eagles, where he was celebrated during a halftime ceremony. He shared his excitement on social media, posting a photo of the six Super Bowl trophies he won with New England and showcasing each Super Bowl ring in an Instagram story. Despite his stint with the Buccaneers in the last three years of his career, Brady's relationship with the Patriots' leadership appears to have mended, cementing his legacy as a Patriot as he prepares to enter the Hall of Fame.

🏴‍☠️ Mayfield leads Bucs to victory over Vikings. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield demonstrated resilience on Sunday, rebounding from a rocky start to guide the Bucs to a victory against the Vikings in Minnesota. Mayfield's performance included completing 21 of 34 passes for 173 yards, contributing two touchdowns without any interceptions. Justin Jefferson, who posted nine receptions and 150 yards, did his best to give Minnesota the lead, but Tampa Bay walked away with a 20-17 win in the first game post Tom Brady.

There are 15 MLB games scheduled to take place throughout this afternoon and evening. However, due to our model excluding the second game of doubleheaders because of lineup unpredictability, our model has predictions for 14 of today’s matchups.

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Model Predicts- Padres ML, UNDER 9.5, Padres +1.5

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will begin a three-game series for the final time on Monday night.

San Diego enters this matchup with nothing left to play for, sitting eight games back of a wild card spot and with a 67-77 record. On the other hand, the Dodgers enter today in second in the National League, trailing only Atlanta at 87-55.

San Diego is the inferior team by a significant margin, yet our model gives the Padres a solid chance to win as a road underdog. Let’s dive into why that is and see what our model’s best bet is for this matchup.

San Diego Padres

• One of the most disappointing teams in 2023

  • Made NLCS last season, but will likely miss playoffs and end season under .500

• Still have decent numbers despite struggles

  • Per FanGraphs, rank 11th in wRC+ (106), 13th in home runs (183), and 1st in walk rate (10.6%)

  • Own just .278 BABIP though, signaling some bad luck despite making contact

  • Pitching- rank 4th in Team ERA (3.86), 12th in FIP (4.20), 5th in ground ball rate (44.4%), and 13th in strikeout rate (23.4%)

• Pedro Avila (1-2 record, 2.19 ERA) will start today’s game. Went 6.2 innings without allowing a run in his last start. Owns 62% ground ball rate and 4.0% barrel rate (Baseball Savant), showing that opposing hitters don’t size him up

Los Angeles Dodgers

• World Series contender, but are in tough situation with Gavin Stone (1-0 record, 10.50 ERA) set to start on the mound

• Stone has been awful in 18.0 innings this season, allowing 21 earned runs in that time. Also owns 2.28 WHIP, showing that opposing teams are getting on base in bunches

• WHIP is so high because he is walking 8.3% of opposing hitters while only striking out 10.3%. Pitches to contact, but also struggles with his control

• Generally throws three pitches (4-seam, cutter, and changeup). All have xBA (expected batting average) of at least .327

• Stone’s xERA sits at 7.51, hinting at improvement in the future, but number still indicates plenty of struggles are on the horizon

What’s the Play?

Despite all the talent on San Diego’s roster, nothing has gone the Padres’ way this season. However, going up against Stone gives them an excellent chance to get back in the win column today.

Stone has had loads of trouble keeping the ball out of play, a bad sign regardless of what team he would face. Combine that with having to retire guys like Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Xander Bogaerts, it’s likely Stone has another rough outing.

Our model thinks the Padres should be -158 favorites, so we’ll take a chance on them at +142.

The Play: Padres ML (+142)

Money Line Trends 💰

• Atlanta Braves- 93-49 overall this season, 27-8 against division opponents (Play NL East rival Philadelphia today)

• Milwaukee Brewers- 79-63 overall this season, 40-28 as the home team

Over/Under Trends ⬆️⬇️

• New York Mets- Under is 80-57-5 this season, 43-22-3 as the home team

• Oakland Athletics- Over is 74-61-8 this season, 40-27-5 as the away team

Run Line Trends ➕➖

• Houston Astros- Run line is 74-70 overall this season, 7-3 when favored against Oakland

Various injuries around the league. See full injury report at MLB.com.

😱 Yankees no-hit through 10 innings, still win game. Gerrit Cole, the Yankees' top pitcher, delivered an impressive performance, resembling a strong candidate for the 2023 AL Cy Young award. However, he faced tough competition in Milwaukee Brewers' ace Corbin Burnes, who pitched a no-hitter against the Yankees over eight innings. It took until the 10th inning for New York to record a hit and the game ultimately extended to the 13th inning, with the Yankees prevailing 4-3.

💪 Braves become first team to clinch playoff spot. Ronald Acuna and Matt Olson both came through with clutch two-run singles in the seventh inning, propelling the Atlanta Braves to a 5-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates and securing a spot in the MLB playoffs. With an impressive record of 93-49, the Braves are the first team to lock in their postseason berth this year as they aim for their second World Series title in three seasons. The Braves still need six wins or Phillies losses to secure their sixth consecutive division title, and they will begin a critical four-game series against Philadelphia soon.

🇯🇵 Japan’s Yamamoto throws no-hitter. Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a no-hitter this weekend for the Orix Buffaloes, catching the attention of several MLB executives in attendance. In the 4-0 victory against the Lotte Marines, Yamamoto recorded eight strikeouts, extending his remarkable scoreless streak to 42 innings. With a season record of 14-5, a 1.26 ERA, 145 strikeouts, and 24 walks in 143 innings, the 25-year-old right-handed pitcher is anticipated to be posted to major league teams during the offseason, drawing interest from notable figures like New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.

Today’s trivia requires you to dig into multiple pockets of your brain, testing your knowledge of recent events as well as those that happened decades ago.

See how many of the below questions you can get correct. Answers are provided at the end of the newsletter.

Question #1- Since 2002, only one quarterback that was drafted first overall has won their first career start. Who was that QB?

Question #2- The St. Louis Cardinals had the youngest player in the MLB on their roster on opening day in 2023. Who was that player?

Question #3- Anthony Richardson was the seventh different QB to start a Week 1 game for the Colts in the last seven seasons. Can you name the previous two Colts Week 1 starters?

Anyone know what has happened on September 11th throughout history? We didn’t have a clue either, but it appears that it has been a busy day.

On September 11th…

1966- Johnny Miller becomes the first New York Yankee to hit a home run in his first MLB at-bat. Even crazier, Miller would record just two homers in his career, with the second coming in his final MLB at-bat in 1969. He is just one of two players in MLB history to hit a home run in his first and last at-bats, joining Paul Gillespie on the list.

1983- Pittsburgh Steelers running back Franco Harris rushes for 118 yards in a 25-21 victory over the Green Bay Packers. The performance gave Harris 11,000 rush yards in his career, becoming only the third player to reach the milestone. Harris would end his career with 12,120 rushing yards, the 15th most in league history.

1985- MLB legend Pete Rose records his 4,192nd career hit in a matchup with the San Diego Padres. The hit put Rose ahead of Ty Cobb on the all-time list, who sat in first place for 57 years. Rose ended his career with 4,256 hits, which is still the most in MLB history to this day.

1. David Carr

2. Jordan Walker

3. Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz